ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormwatcher95]

AF recon in route, doubt he is even a hurricane anymore from IR presentation.

[USVIKimmie]

AF recon in route, doubt he is even a hurricane anymore from IR presentation.

Data won’t do much good while they’re in the air. Com issues were mentioned earlier.

Other than Tropical Tidbits, What’s a good site for data?

[SpaceyLacey]

AF recon in route, doubt he is even a hurricane anymore from IR presentation.

Data won’t do much good while they’re in the air. Com issues were mentioned earlier.

Other than Tropical Tidbits, What’s a good site for data?

Spaghettimodels.com is a good site

[stormwatcher95]

AF recon in route, doubt he is even a hurricane anymore from IR presentation.

Data won’t do much good while they’re in the air. Com issues were mentioned earlier.

Other than Tropical Tidbits, What’s a good site for data?

This is the website I use to watch the recon
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... ing=cesium

[Highteeld]

Most of the LLC is exposed. wheels have completely come off.

[wxman57]

Jerry has problems this morning. Looks absolutely terrible on satellite. Recon found some evidence of a small pocket of hurricane force winds, but those may not last much longer. I think that Jerry will weaken below hurricane strength shortly and remain a TS beyond then. No threat to the NE Caribbean islands. Possibly will pass far enough east of Bermuda to keep the island out of its very small area of TS winds next Wednesday.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Completely fallen apart. Should weaken to a TS today.

[USVIKimmie]

AF recon in route, doubt he is even a hurricane anymore from IR presentation.

Data won’t do much good while they’re in the air. Com issues were mentioned earlier.

Other than Tropical Tidbits, What’s a good site for data?

This is the website I use to watch the recon
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... ing=cesium

That’s the one! Thanks.

I like Mike @ Spaghetti Models, but it’s a bit too Florida-centric most of the time. We little guys get left out all the time. Easier to just look at the raw stuff and figure what’s going on locally.

[LarryWx]

Completely fallen apart. Should weaken to a TS today.

https://i.imgur.com/Xisf5kS.jpg

Great news for the shorter term, but for the longer term what might that portend? How does current and progged future steering look at a lower mean level to reflect a weaker system compared to a stronger system? I want to make sure this doesn’t imply a quicker and more westward motion.

[wxman57]

The center is always easier to find once all that nasty convection dies out... Small storms can quickly strengthen, but they can also fall apart very quickly.

P.S. Pressure up to 994mb now.

[LarryWx]

Does anyone have a link to steering level based on strength of storm?

[Emmett_Brown]

Does anyone have a link to steering level based on strength of storm?

I think this is the one: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... &prod=dlm1

[Emmett_Brown]

Completely fallen apart. Should weaken to a TS today.

https://i.imgur.com/Xisf5kS.jpg

Great news for the shorter term, but for the longer term what might that portend? How does current and progged future steering look at a lower mean level to reflect a weaker system compared to a stronger system? I want to make sure this doesn’t imply a quicker and more westward motion.

By my rough napkin math, Jerry is moving W/NW at 21 mph over the last 6 hours. (Just my small contribution to you trackers working at home). Jerry's carefree naturalist appearance is allowing him to move faster... unencumbered by convective garments. The downstream track implications of this remains to be seen... but many track changes start with a few innocent deviations from the forecast.

[wxman57]

NHC is being quite generous with that 75 kt initial wind. Maybe about 15-20 kts generous.

[wxman57]

By my rough napkin math, Jerry is moving W/NW at 21 mph over the last 6 hours. (Just my small contribution to you trackers working at home). Jerry's carefree naturalist appearance is allowing him to move faster... unencumbered by convective garments. The downstream track implications of this remains to be seen... but many track changes start with a few innocent deviations from the forecast.

May I use that quote in my next advisory?

[LarryWx]

Completely fallen apart. Should weaken to a TS today.

https://i.imgur.com/Xisf5kS.jpg

Great news for the shorter term, but for the longer term what might that portend? How does current and progged future steering look at a lower mean level to reflect a weaker system compared to a stronger system? I want to make sure this doesn’t imply a quicker and more westward motion.

By my rough napkin math, Jerry is moving W/NW at 21 mph over the last 6 hours. (Just my small contribution to you trackers working at home). Jerry's carefree naturalist appearance is allowing him to move faster... unencumbered by convective garments. The downstream track implications of this remains to be seen... but many track changes start with a few innocent deviations from the forecast.

Thanks for the link! These things are never constant. Around where he is now, there don’t seem to be large differences. However, further west near the Bahamas it is more westerly toward FL due to surface high pressure to the north that is progged to persist for a few days/not weaken too quickly. I’m just being cautious as I’ve been going and still am going 90% chance of recurve E of CONUS.

[Emmett_Brown]

By my rough napkin math, Jerry is moving W/NW at 21 mph over the last 6 hours. (Just my small contribution to you trackers working at home). Jerry's carefree naturalist appearance is allowing him to move faster... unencumbered by convective garments. The downstream track implications of this remains to be seen... but many track changes start with a few innocent deviations from the forecast.

May I use that quote in my next advisory?

Sir... I would be honored...

[AnnularCane]

Looks like he's trying to put his clothes back on.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[wxman57]

Looks like he's trying to put his clothes back on.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Yep, Jerry was just mooning the satellite. Should pass safely north of the islands today.

[Bostonriff]

Jerry's persistent problem for several days hasn't been shear or dry air, but a stout regional cap that just stifles convection like a hammer for multitudes of hours at a time before it weakens enough for another spurt of convection to break through up to the tropopause.