ATL: KAREN - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its been said before...nothing good comes of a storm that is forced back west like that. I dont know exactly why that is, but its never good.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Its been said before...nothing good comes of a storm that is forced back west like that. I dont know exactly why that is, but its never good.

Kind of like Irma's WSW dip. You just knew that was not ending well.

[Blown Away]

Late Sept it would be pretty rare for a storm near 26N/70W to impact Bahamas/Florida... To many troughs moving through... Maybe mid Atlantic/Bermuda...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Its been said before...nothing good comes of a storm that is forced back west like that. I dont know exactly why that is, but its never good.

That's because there's usually a pretty strong ridge at the 500mb level doing that. Dorian, Florence, Andrew, et cetera.

[AtlanticWind]

Late Sept it would be pretty rare for a storm near 26N/70W to impact Bahamas/Florida... To many troughs moving through... Maybe mid Atlantic/Bermuda...

Rare yes , but this could be setting up for one of those rare instances
Like Inez in 1966 or the 1929 hurricane
Time will tell....

[LarryWx]

The 18Z EPS has about 25% of its members as full fledged TCs. Most of those 25% are stuck at the end of the run and in a potentially threatening position with regard to the SE US.

[SouthFLTropics]

Jeanne comes to mind as a storm that looped back SW and then headed west. Jeanne hit about the same time, 3rd to 4th week in September.

[sma10]

The 18Z EPS has about 25% of its members as full fledged TCs. Most of those 25% are stuck at the end of the run and in a potentially threatening position with regard to the SE US.

As did the 12z ... at least 25%

[sma10]

Late Sept it would be pretty rare for a storm near 26N/70W to impact Bahamas/Florida... To many troughs moving through... Maybe mid Atlantic/Bermuda...

Rare yes , but this could be setting up for one of those rare instances
Like Inez in 1966 or the 1929 hurricane
Time will tell....

How about the Yankee Hurricane (1935)? That one formed EAST of Bermuda and struck Miami as a category 2 in November !

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Late Sept it would be pretty rare for a storm near 26N/70W to impact Bahamas/Florida... To many troughs moving through... Maybe mid Atlantic/Bermuda...

Rare yes , but this could be setting up for one of those rare instances
Like Inez in 1966 or the 1929 hurricane
Time will tell....

How about the Yankee Hurricane (1935)? That one formed EAST of Bermuda and struck Miami as a category 2 in November !

Having to go just a little ways back in order to make a point ‘29, ‘35, and ‘66 and just three out of all these years gone by I agree with Blown Away except this year I would say it would be extremely rare if not on the verge of just not going to happen

Look at the past systems that have been in the area north of the islands this year. Dorian, Humberto, Jerry, think here was an invest, and td3 all turned north after early model runs showed a strong high building in pushing it west into Florida and the gulf. But extremely progressive pattern is and has been in place with northern stream troughs coming across every couple of days that weaken the ridges enough to give the storms an escape path. And now that we’re pushing towards October expect them to be more frequent and even stronger. Willing to bet the models will flip back to an out to sea route tomorrow just as quick as they went west today.

[Hurricaneman]

0zGFS has landfall around Cape Canaveral at 258hrs as a tropical depression or low end tropical storm, but here’s the thing with the low to light shear in the model it makes no sense with its weak solution

[WxEp]

00Z GFS continues with a solution where 99L gets blocked and forced back west. Still many days out out but the continuation of the overall pattern is key.

[Hurricaneman]

Let’s hope it drops this solution or Florida may have something that bears watching next week

[AJC3]

0zGFS has landfall around Cape Canaveral at 258hrs as a tropical depression or low end tropical storm, but here’s the thing with the low to light shear in the model it makes no sense with its weak solution

The op-GFS doesn't quite make a FL landfall. It comes right up to the coast between DAB and SGJ at H270 before moving parallel to the NEFL coast at it heads slowly N and then NE.

But really, looking at ensembles and trends is the way to go for the next week and change. And while some of the last few deterministic solutions and short term trend in the guidance give some pause at first glance, it's asking a lot of a late September ridge to force a system that's already up at 25N 60W to travel nearly 20 degrees for westward over the course of 5-6 days.

[Hurricaneman]

0zGFS has landfall around Cape Canaveral at 258hrs as a tropical depression or low end tropical storm, but here’s the thing with the low to light shear in the model it makes no sense with its weak solution

The op-GFS doesn't quite make a FL landfall. It comes right up to the coast between DAB and SGJ at H270 before moving parallel to the NEFL coast at it heads slowly N and then NE.

But really, looking at ensembles and trends is the way to go for the next week and change. And while some of the last few deterministic solutions and short term trend in the guidance give some pause at first glance, it's asking a lot of a late September ridge to force a system that's already up at 25N 60W to travel nearly 20 degrees for westward over the course of 5-6 days.

Here’s the thing if Inez didn’t happen in 1966 I would think it’s impossible but it did so there would be an analog system if indeed something like this somehow happens, also Jeanne in 2004 but as always we’ll have to see what the models do the next several days

[sma10]

0zGFS has landfall around Cape Canaveral at 258hrs as a tropical depression or low end tropical storm, but here’s the thing with the low to light shear in the model it makes no sense with its weak solution

The op-GFS doesn't quite make a FL landfall. It comes right up to the coast between DAB and SGJ at H270 before moving parallel to the NEFL coast at it heads slowly N and then NE.

But really, looking at ensembles and trends is the way to go for the next week and change. And while some of the last few deterministic solutions and short term trend in the guidance give some pause at first glance, it's asking a lot of a late September ridge to force a system that's already up at 25N 60W to travel nearly 20 degrees for westward over the course of 5-6 days.

All very true. Like you say it's just watch and see really. It is eerie though that at 10 days out the GFS and CMC are virtually on top of each other, given such an unconventional track

[AJC3]

0zGFS has landfall around Cape Canaveral at 258hrs as a tropical depression or low end tropical storm, but here’s the thing with the low to light shear in the model it makes no sense with its weak solution

The op-GFS doesn't quite make a FL landfall. It comes right up to the coast between DAB and SGJ at H270 before moving parallel to the NEFL coast at it heads slowly N and then NE.

But really, looking at ensembles and trends is the way to go for the next week and change. And while some of the last few deterministic solutions and short term trend in the guidance give some pause at first glance, it's asking a lot of a late September ridge to force a system that's already up at 25N 60W to travel nearly 20 degrees for westward over the course of 5-6 days.

Here’s the thing if Inez didn’t happen in 1966 I would think it’s impossible but it did so there would be an analog system if indeed something like this somehow happens, also Jeanne in 2004 but as always we’ll have to see what the models do the next several days

Exactly. I'd never say impossible (being a met for 27+ years, as a rule I use uncertainty and probabilistic terms). Sure, there are a few precedent systems as you mentioned - just pointing out, as others already have, that a westward retrogression of a TC that far north would be highly anomalous, especially to the extent that the op-GFS is suggesting. Over the years, we've all seen literally hundreds of model solutions showing anomalous tracks such as this, and more often than not, the solutions are overdone. And I'd be saying this even the models were advertising it in the 3-7 day period, let alone 8+ days out.

[djones65]

Hurricane Kate in 1985 during month of November formed northeast of Puerto Rico. Moved west northwest then southwest over northern Cuba before receiving into FL north Gulf coast just west of Tallahassee. That was "anomalous" to say the least.
I agree it is unlikely, but certainly not unprecedented.


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[sma10]

Hurricane Kate in 1985 during month of November formed northeast of Puerto Rico. Moved west northwest then southwest over northern Cuba before receiving into FL north Gulf coast just west of Tallahassee. That was "anomalous" to say the least.
I agree it is unlikely, but certainly not unprecedented.


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And it was the latter part of November, at that. Kate was definitely a crazy anomaly

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z ECMWF running.

Jerry moves out, 99L moves north and gets caught under the ridge by 120 hours.