ATL: KAREN - Models

[gatorcane]

The 500MB ridge looks stronger and more expansive in a week’s this time around than with Dorian. We will see but let us hope the pronged shear by the GFS indeed develops near the Bahamas.

[Hammy]

12Z still takes it W toward Bahamas, but weakens it to a wave, due to shear from an upper low that is meandering off the SE coast throughout the run.

It’s a GFS vs Euro thing but for once not the track but intensity, the Euro has a hurricane as it heads west while the GFS barely has anything but usually storms that head west intensify so based on that I’m leaning towards the Euro but the GFS can’t be discounted if an ULL forms close by near the Bahamas and stalls

Personally I'd toss the latter GFS for now given how poorly it's done this year--Humberto was supposed to remain weak and go into the Gulf. If it survives the Caribbean in the first place then conditions seem like they'll be more favorable ahead.

[Highteeld]

Multiple models showing Fujiwhara effect with Jerry in several days time. Good luck on any model to be remotely accurate lol.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS sends the remnants of Karen toward TX.

[LarryWx]

12Z Legacy moves Karen west but then weakens her.
12Z GEFS: I couldn’t find any members that have anything other than mainly weak though they do mainly get stuck and go west.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro has a weak 1009mb L about to split PR down the middle. That's a recipe for dissipation right there along with tons of rain for the island.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 72 hours heading north just north of PR:

[chaser1]

Predicting the upcoming 72 hr. model output:
EURO - most consistent with motion and a range in intensity from zero to hurricane with eventual eastward shifts to eventual storm track
ICON - mega-bomb landfall scares ranging from P.R. to Bermuda, to Hispaniola, to Cuba, to the Bahamas, to Florida, to Texas, to Baja CA.
GFS - Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and brisk tropical trades (for everyone)
CMC - Anything.... North
NAVGEM - squirrel
NAM - Is it Hurricane Season?

Overall, model-watching during the next few days should be fun or scary to say the least. Take it with a grain of salt until whatever remnant of Karen are north of the Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

Predicting the upcoming 72 hr. model output:


Overall, model-watching during the next few days should be fun or scary to say the least. Take it with a grain of salt until whatever remnant of Karen are north of the Caribbean.

Sounds eerily similar to another storm this year

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF down to 999MB when run ends so a bit stronger this run.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 96 hours heading north but looks like ridge starting to build in the wake of Jerry:

[gatorcane]

Euro 120 hours looks to be starting the turn with the ridge building:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF looks similar to yesterday's 12z run regarding how far north it gets.

[Highteeld]

12z ECMWF looks similar to yesterday's 12z run regarding how far north it gets.

[SFLcane]

Euro Trending much weaker like the gfs

[toad strangler]

So far through 120 hrs the 12z Euro is much weaker than 0z. Similar to the 12z GFS.

[gatorcane]

Starting to strengthen and the west turn has happened:

[jlauderdal]

Starting to strengthen and the west turn has happened:

https://i.postimg.cc/8CQXChp0/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-7.png

270 would be right into boca, roh roh

[SpaceyLacey]

Jeanne Jr

[toad strangler]

12z Euro still much weaker than 0z but that's not the key here this far out. The key is that persistent left turn which has already happened on 12z Euro.