ATL: KAREN - Models

[toad strangler]

And that 12z Euro ridge at 144 hrs

[gatorcane]

Ut oh beelining west and intensifying

[Highteeld]

Rapidly gaining strength at hour 168 and beelining dead west. Reminds me of Dorian (hope it recurves too!)

[toad strangler]

Good Lord look at that ridge at 168 hrs.

[gatorcane]

Ridge looks strong:

[Cpv17]

Man, the Bahamas can’t catch a break. Wow.

[Hammy]

Ridge looks strong:

https://i.postimg.cc/JhQ3WFpP/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-8.png

Unrelated to Karen itself, I wonder if we're going to have a third time now with something passing near Florida and the upper disturbance that helped steer it north develops in the Gulf after--the pattern almost seems like it's on a weird repeat setting.

[WeatherEmperor]

Right near south florida coast




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[toad strangler]

12z Euro right into Palm Beach County with VERBATIM a high end TS or Cat 1 Hurricane.

[gatorcane]

South Florida 192 hours:

[toad strangler]

With that uber ridge this will easily get into the Gulf this run.

[sma10]

12z Euro still much weaker than 0z but that's not the key here this far out. The key is that persistent left turn which has already happened on 12z Euro.

Agreed. I would go even further to say being weaker is meaningless, if you want to argue over 980mb vs 998 mb. Those details this far out and strike point (miami, wpb, cuba, etc) also not important. The only thing of concern for the US is whether the Euro is "locking in" on an idea

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ridge looks strong:

https://i.postimg.cc/JhQ3WFpP/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-8.png

Unrelated to Karen itself, I wonder if we're going to have a third time now with something passing near Florida and the upper disturbance that helped steer it north develops in the Gulf after--the pattern almost seems like it's on a weird repeat setting.

I’ve never begged for a shortwave or trough more than now. The Bahamas don’t need this.

[toad strangler]

Also on this run, right over the hardest hit areas from Dorian.

[AxaltaRacing24]

12z Euro still much weaker than 0z but that's not the key here this far out. The key is that persistent left turn which has already happened on 12z Euro.

Agreed. I would go even further to say being weaker is meaningless, if you want to argue over 980mb vs 998 mb. Those details this far out and strike point (miami, wpb, cuba, etc) also not important. The only thing of concern for the US is whether the Euro is "locking in" on an idea

My concern is how the euro has been committed to this turn. If it stays committed when the timeframe for a turn decreases to 3-4 days out, then we really need to watch this.

[toad strangler]

This Euro run is pretty fast so if this played out it would be a IN and OUT type scenario, which is always the preferred method wherever a hit occurs.

[CrazyC83]

This is certainly not a pattern you'd expect at the end of September or beginning of October though. That looks like a track you'd be more apt to see in August.

[sma10]

This Euro run is pretty fast so if this played out it would be a IN and OUT type scenario, which is always the preferred method wherever a hit occurs.

Yes which of course, implies a very sturdy, strong ridge

[Cpv17]

This is certainly not a pattern you'd expect at the end of September or beginning of October though. That looks like a track you'd be more apt to see in August.

That’s what happens when no cold fronts are coming down which is why you have to throw climo out the window right now.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro hits central LA 234-240 (10/2) due to a turn to the NW.