ATL: KAREN - Models

[toad strangler]

12Z Euro hits central LA 234-240.

It looked like that was where the W edge of the ridge was THIS run.

[sma10]

I'm going to have to take my anti nausea pills because of how many times I'm going to have to hear the "A" name mentioned over the next week.

[AubreyStorm]

South Florida 192 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/Vk91m9nK/ecmwf-uv850-vort-seus-9.png

Cat 1 right?

[toad strangler]

South Florida 192 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/Vk91m9nK/ecmwf-uv850-vort-seus-9.png

Cat 1 right?

Verbatim yes, but it's silly to look at intensity this far down the road.

[plasticup]

For those keeping score the 12z CMC still has Karen moving N at 120 hours

And then takes it East out to sea

Out to sea being about 100 miles from Bermuda. Hardly a safe fish track.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm going to have to take my anti nausea pills because of how many times I'm going to have to hear the "A" name mentioned over the next week.

That would be an absolute worst case with this, I’m thinking a weaker version of a hybrid of Jeanne and Katrina using the Euro

[Hammy]

12z Euro still much weaker than 0z but that's not the key here this far out. The key is that persistent left turn which has already happened on 12z Euro.

Agreed. I would go even further to say being weaker is meaningless, if you want to argue over 980mb vs 998 mb. Those details this far out and strike point (miami, wpb, cuba, etc) also not important. The only thing of concern for the US is whether the Euro is "locking in" on an idea

My concern is how the euro has been committed to this turn. If it stays committed when the timeframe for a turn decreases to 3-4 days out, then we really need to watch this.

Euro seems like it's good at sniffing things out before the other models--did it with Dorian (stall/offshore of east coast) and Humberto early recurve).

This is certainly not a pattern you'd expect at the end of September or beginning of October though. That looks like a track you'd be more apt to see in August.

It feels almost like the weather patterns got stuck in July (SAL outbreaks, WAM being too far north, westward-extended high pressure) for an extended time period, and now it seems everything is both delayed and slower-moving--the pattern was stuck in July for months, now it's been stuck in mid to late August just as long. Certainly nothing about the weather right now says late September.

[plasticup]

12Z NAVGEM does a tight cyclonic loop over Bermuda, giving Cat1/TS winds for 72 hours.

[DestinHurricane]

God I hope these runs that get it into the gulf are wrong, some people east of me are still homeless and another hurricane would be extremely devastating, even a strong TS as we have a few people still living in tents in Panama City. I would gladly take a direct hit or eastern eye wall over here in Destin if it spared the Panama City area.

[chaser1]

Um yeah, i'd say the EURO is pretty locked into this over-all pattern for the time being.... right up until the timing or synoptics begin to change.
My guess right now is that the safest place to be is probably between Miami and W. Palm Beach. My #1 guess right now would probably be for
a blustery mess to cross from the southern Bahamas back over Cuba with a then redeveloping T.S.near Isles of Pines, to eventually strengthen while
moving N.W. into the GOM and eventually threaten Louisiana as a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane. My #2 guess would be for Karen (or it's remnants) to
simply move generally NNW to north of P.R. and then remain out to sea.

[SFLcane]

South Florida 192 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/Vk91m9nK/ecmwf-uv850-vort-seus-9.png

Cat 1 right?

Doubt it with that much dry air around. Also the trend has me thinking it could just dissipate it like GFS on the next run. Very hostile environment

[stormlover2013]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... ml#picture

[stormlover2013]

Will see more flopping

[Evil Jeremy]

The ECMWF targeting my house in 8 days makes me feel oddly comfortable at the moment, knowing how the Dorian and Humberto modeling evolved. I need to see another 3 days of consistent modeling before I start to get concerned. I'm still shuttered up from Dorian, and generally stocked on supplies so I'm just going to sit tight. I have to imagine the modeling will eventually move East given what we have seen over the past month.

[Cunxi Huang]

12z EURO suggests peak intensity of 990 mb.

AL, 12, 2019092212, 98, EMDT, 174, 263N, 747W, 55, 990, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12
AL, 12, 2019092212, 98, EMDT, 240, 297N, 923W, 51, 990, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10

[ronjon]

Yeah too far out to get worked up over. Lots of timing and intensity issues still out there. Thats a massive ridge at 500 mb predicted by the Euro. Might actually be strong enough to force Karen south of the peninsula aka Rita and Ike.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z EURO suggests peak intensity of 990 mb.

AL, 12, 2019092212, 98, EMDT, 174, 263N, 747W, 55, 990, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12
AL, 12, 2019092212, 98, EMDT, 240, 297N, 923W, 51, 990, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10

Is this from the hi resolution Euro or the regular??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[chaser1]

I think it's reasonably safe to assume that we can expect to see between 24-48 hr.'s of EURO run after run forecasts depicting a Florida pummel-fest. Conversely, I'd be shocked if
the GFS did not continue with it's same consistent "move along - nothing here" forecast depictions. I just think it's a good deal too early to make sense of long term forecasts in most
part, because there's just too much uncertainty with what/where "Karen" will even look like in 36 hours.

[Emmett_Brown]

Model trends (not that meaningful this far out): Faster, weaker, turn W sooner, less SW dive.

[Cunxi Huang]

12z EURO suggests peak intensity of 990 mb.

AL, 12, 2019092212, 98, EMDT, 174, 263N, 747W, 55, 990, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12
AL, 12, 2019092212, 98, EMDT, 240, 297N, 923W, 51, 990, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10

Is this from the hi resolution Euro or the regular??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The hi-resolution one. These ECMWF atcf-format data are directly decoded from the ECMWF bufr ftp server.