ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

The LLC is becoming exposed again. Jerry continues to weaken.

[Fishing]

Jerry isn’t looking well at all. If it dissipates then would the system itself still follow Humberto’s footprints or could it possibly travel as far as the gulf and then possibly regenerate again? This year has seemed to be that kind of year.


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[Kazmit]

Jerry isn’t looking well at all. If it dissipates then would the system itself still follow Humberto’s footprints or could it possibly travel as far as the gulf and then possibly regenerate again? This year has seemed to be that kind of year.


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It wouldn’t get into the gulf. Would likely follow the same path.

[xironman]

At this point Jerry has totally decoupled. May dissipate.

[wxman57]

At this point Jerry has totally decoupled. May dissipate.

It's possible Jerry could dissipate, but probably not. GFS & Euro had been predicting weakening yesterday and today. They're also predicting re-strengthening prior to passing near Bermuda on Tuesday.

[Buck]

...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...
5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 21
Location: 23.0°N 65.8°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[wxman57]

Wow!!! 55 kts?? I'm not sure what they are seeing. Looks like it's barely hanging on to TS strength, to me. Can't find any scatterometer passes from the past 12 hours. That recon plane left Jerry quite a long time ago. Since then, the center is completely exposed. I'm thinking 35 maybe 40 kts at the most now.

[plasticup]

Wow!!! 55 kts?? I'm not sure what they are seeing. Looks like it's barely hanging on to TS strength, to me. Can't find any scatterometer passes from the past 12 hours. That recon plane left Jerry quite a long time ago. Since then, the center is completely exposed. I'm thinking 35 maybe 40 kts at the most now.

The discussion does mention an ASCAT pass as the primary reason they stick with this intensity. So I guess they do have the data.

[1900hurricane]

Most recent ASCAT pass appears to be a MetOp-A pass from 1502Z, which did show near 50 kt maximum wind speeds at that time. Considering work by Chou, Wu, and Lin does show that ASCAT has a low bias at that intensity, 55 kt seemed reasonable for 18Z, which I suppose NHC maintained for their advisory for 21Z. However, that ASCAT pass is now over 9 hours old, and the center of Jerry remains exposed. The circulation still looks vigorous, but I'd still drop the intensity down to 45 kt for 00Z. It'll be interesting to see what NHC does since their 00Z estimate should be out any minute now.

[1900hurricane]

Wow, NHC maintained 55 kt for 00Z too.

AL, 10, 2019092200, , BEST, 0, 237N, 660W, 55, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 0, 60, 1012, 90, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
AL, 10, 2019092200, , BEST, 0, 237N, 660W, 55, 1002, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,

[AnnularCane]

Jerry had a rough day. But it sounds like he's hanging in there for now?

[wxman57]

Wow!!! 55 kts?? I'm not sure what they are seeing. Looks like it's barely hanging on to TS strength, to me. Can't find any scatterometer passes from the past 12 hours. That recon plane left Jerry quite a long time ago. Since then, the center is completely exposed. I'm thinking 35 maybe 40 kts at the most now.

The discussion does mention an ASCAT pass as the primary reason they stick with this intensity. So I guess they do have the data.

That ASCAT pass was 12 hrs ago.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Recon confirmed Jerry's 55kt and found the pressure substantially down to 997mb as well.

[1900hurricane]

Not surprised since there's convection near the center again.

[AnnularCane]

Jerry is certainly no quitter.

[wx98]

...JERRY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 22
Location: 26.7°N 66.9°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[plasticup]

Track is a little closer to Bermuda again

[galaxy401]

Quite a change compared to a couple days ago. Initially they said Jerry would restrengthen as the shear lessens but now it looks like the shear will be here to stay.

[AnnularCane]

Does shear ever do what it's supposed to?

[drezee]

Hey Jerry why are you moving WNW? 297° bearing per recon