ATL: KAREN - Models

[Cunxi Huang]

12Z EC.

[chris_fit]

12Z EC.

https://i.imgur.com/vuK9gzK.png

Cool graphic - Can you share the source?

[CFLHurricane]

12Z EC.

https://i.imgur.com/vuK9gzK.png

This model gives me life. And not just because I’m excited to see the left hook verify, which would be a victory for cyclone forecasting considering its unusual nature.

[Cunxi Huang]

12Z EC.

https://i.imgur.com/vuK9gzK.png

Cool graphic - Can you share the source?

It's manually generated.
However, its owner NASDAQ does some auto-generated graphs and they are posted on https://www.easterlywave.com/typhoon/ensemble/. The products posted on this website are experimental.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Hwrf shoots straight north and then NE at the end of the run almost as if it doesnt see the ridge to force it West.....




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[AxaltaRacing24]

18z Hwrf shoots straight north and then NE at the end of the run almost as if it doesnt see the ridge to force it West.....

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190923/2dd1e81e5f0c350669aefe16f97aa4fe.gif


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I never really use the hurricane models for tracks anymore. They are always inconsistent and bounce all over the place. Good for intensity trends though.

[SFLcane]

00z models coming north a bit after the SW dive.

[SFLcane]

For what it’s worth 18z euro was more intense then its 12z run as Karen exits the Caribbean.

[CreponChris]

12Z ECMWF TAU 240 (10 days out) Max Wind Gust for SE CONUS. Winds are arguably at TS level or Cat 1, but we'll definitely know more by Tuesday. If the majority of the EPS 50 members don't hit right now, I'll take that with a relatively large grain of salt. 3 of the perturbed members of the EPS for rainfall in inches here where I am in Connecticut show 4 inches of rain per hour or so at KOXC (Waterbury-Oxford) sometime this week. That just isn't happening. Don't mean to sound condescending here and haven't even counted the EPS members striking the CONUS. Anyway, whether it does or not I hope we can stay focused and interested. Good night.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It appears that the latest ICON has been notified about the ridge.

[WeatherEmperor]

It appears that the latest ICON has been notified about the ridge.

Correct. It moves Karen W from 120 until landfall in SouthFlorida at 180




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[Hurricaneman]

The models seem to turn this west right around the same area that Andrew did in 1992 and even has a similar sheared structure up to that point and possibly a similar track but am predicting not nearly as strong as in no more than a low end hurricane but as always models and their intensity and track forecast can be subject to large errors

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS 00z coming in with a stronger Vort at 120 hours. Looks like it just got roped and is getting ready to be pulled west.

[toad strangler]

The models seem to turn this west right around the same area that Andrew did in 1992 and even has a similar sheared structure up to that point and possibly a similar track but am predicting not nearly as strong as in no more than a low end hurricane but as always models and their intensity and track forecast can be subject to large errors

Just another cover every possibility in one post forecast.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS 00z coming in with a stronger Vort at 120 hours. Looks like it just got roped and is getting ready to be pulled west.

Also seems closer to the anticyclone but still not quite there yet on this run but is trending towards it, so close to extremely favorable conditions that if that anticyclone was any further east this would be an intensifying hurricane so we must watch this trend as it could be the difference from a few downpours for the Bahamas and Florida and a major hurricane

[aperson]

GFS 0z

[toad strangler]

Andrew ..... since it’s been mentioned, approached from a much different area than Karen is coming from.

[WeatherEmperor]

0z Ukmet in blue. LoL




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[AxaltaRacing24]

0z Ukmet in blue. LoL

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190923/07e628dbc14a43bf53eb38f018feccd9.gif


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This looks like something the cmc (in its crazy uncle days) would try and do

[Hurricaneman]

Also the upper low the GFS had in previous runs seems to dissipate or is weaker so that’s not a good trend either