ATL: KAREN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#341 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:46 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:By the keys now

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190923/a0d60a20f11d9fd49a2100aac4bf3194.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Euro sticking hard to this solution. 4 solid days of south-of-west motion in late sept. Wow
1 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#342 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:47 am

sma10 wrote:
AJC3 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/05BsNA6.gif

72 hour trend for SLP and 500MB height for the ECM. The model appears to have gone toward a slightly more progressive, less blocky pattern. Note the eastern CONUS/western ATLC ridge looks a little flatter and farther east, while the huge central Atlantic trough progged to catch Lorenzo-to-be has shifted eastward, allowing the TC to enter the picture.


What would the ramifications of this be, if any?
I notice that Lorenzo seems to make a sharp turn to the north mostly because Jerry's remains slow down considerably this run.


I don't think much. There's just too much of a weakness out there for L-T-B not to get caught and turn poleward. The long wave pattern in the atmosphere doesn't usually support having a strong ridge all the way from the eastern CONUS into the central Atlantic without some sort of weakness somewhere in between, especially this time of year.
5 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#343 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:50 am

Surprised to see the consistency in the models in terms of path this early on. Let's see if it stays this way. Talking about the intensity forecast, remember Dorian. About this time period before Dorian made landfall almost all members 'only' showed a tropical storm to weak cat 1 (GFS operational even fell apart before reaching the Bahamas). Models have a hard time with the intensity of small storms and I noticed that many of the global models seem to underestimate long term intensity in general.
Last edited by kevin on Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#344 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:51 am

I think this sucker is going to make it all the way to Texas
2 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#345 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:52 am

kevin wrote:Surprised to see the consistency in the models in terms of parh this early on. Let's see if it stays this way. Talking about the intensity forecast, remember Dorian. About this time period before Dorian made landfall almost all members showed a tropical storm to weak cat 1 (GFs operational even fell apart before reaching the Bahamas). Models have a hard time with the intensity of small storms and I noticed that many of the global models seem to underestimate long term intensity in general.

I feel that some of this agreement is due to the turn being only 72-96 hours away from establishing itself. That is when the ridge would build over the system.
2 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#346 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:56 am

sma10 wrote:I think this sucker is going to make it all the way to Texas

possibly would be mexico.
1 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#347 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:59 am

At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?
3 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#348 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:01 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
sma10 wrote:I think this sucker is going to make it all the way to Texas

possibly would be mexico.


Northern Mexico or South Texas. Hard to tell, but I’d go with far Northern Mexico. Brownsville area would take a beating though I bet.
1 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#349 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:07 am

sma10 wrote:At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?


More like unprecedented. Closest analog I see is Andrew, and even that didn't get sent nearly that far west. The only other system remotely in the ball park (and really not that close) is Dora (1964). And for late September/early October, from a climatological standpoint, this would be pretty astounding.

Image
7 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#350 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:09 am

AJC3 wrote:
sma10 wrote:At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?


More like unprecedented. Closest analog I see is Andrew, and even that didn't get sent nearly that far west. The only other system remotely in the ball park (and really not that close) is Dora (1964).

https://i.imgur.com/VZPtH4x.jpg


Wow I didn't realize such a path was that rare. If the models verify this could be a once in a lifetime storm in terms of its track.
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#351 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:11 am

AJC3 wrote:
sma10 wrote:At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?


More like unprecedented. Closest analog I see is Andrew, and even that didn't get sent nearly that far west. The only other system remotely in the ball park (and really not that close) is Dora (1964). And for late September/early October, from a climatological standpoint, this would be pretty astounding.

https://i.imgur.com/VZPtH4x.jpg


It's not an analog, but the only track even remotely close would be Inez i suppose. But the Inez track was fairly conventional until getting captured and rerouted at 26n 78w
0 likes   

User avatar
Cunxi Huang
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 329
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: San Jose, CA
Contact:

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#352 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:13 am

00z ec. 961 mb over the gulf of Mexico.

AL, 12, 2019092300, 98, EMDT, 150, 244N, 717W, 68, 982, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11
AL, 12, 2019092300, 98, EMDT, 240, 247N, 919W, 78, 961, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13
1 likes   
06 SuTY SAOMAI | 09 TY LINFA | 10 TY FANAPI | 10 SuTY MEGI | 16 SuTY MERANTI | 19 SuTY LEKIMA | 24 C2 FRANCINE
DO NOT use my posts for life and death decisions. For official information, please refer to products from your RSMC and national weather agency.

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#353 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:13 am

If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008). However, both were 2 (Ike) to 4 (Betsy) weeks earlier in the season. A 175 mile radius gives you the very infamous Kate (November 1985) as another semi-analog, as well as an unnamed hurricane in mid September 1947.

Image
4 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#354 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:16 am

Do i have the number correct that this run of the Euro directs Karen on a south of west path for 2,000 miles??
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#355 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:16 am

AJC3 wrote:If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008)

While maybe not a great analog, the 1935 Yankee hurricane in November shows what a strong ridge in the right position can do

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Yankee_hurricane#/media/File%3A1935_Atlantic_hurricane_7_track.png
0 likes   

aperson
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 336
Age: 37
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:56 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#356 Postby aperson » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:49 am

Image

wild all around
4 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#357 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:51 am

Here's the dreaded spaghetti model output from TropicalAtlantic.com with the worst of the junk removed...

Image
7 likes   

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 551
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#358 Postby jconsor » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:41 am

AJC3 wrote:If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008). However, both were 2 (Ike) to 4 (Betsy) weeks earlier in the season. A 175 mile radius gives you the very infamous Kate (November 1985) as another semi-analog, as well as an unnamed hurricane in mid September 1947.

https://i.imgur.com/vEkAiaE.jpg


While such a prolonged westerly track from a relatively high latitude is rare in late Sep/early Oct, it's not unprecedented.

Here are four examples. Hurricane Kate (which you mentioned) in Nov 1985 moved west from the SE Bahamas into N Cuba, before recurving N and NE and hitting the FL panhandle as a Cat 2.

Image

A late Sep hurricane in 1941 developed NE of PR and moved W to WNW, hitting S FL as a Cat 2.

Image

An early Oct hurricane in 1929 developed N of PR and initially moved NW, then turned sharply SW toward the N Bahamas, hitting Nassau hard before striking extreme S FL as a Cat 3.

Image

A hurricane in 1893 developed in late Sep south of the Cape Verde Islands, then turned NW passing several hundred miles NE of the Leeward Islands. It then bent back to the WNW, passing across the far N Bahamas. Finally, it turned N, brushing the NE FL and GA coasts, then making a rare landfall in SC in mid-Oct as a Cat 3!

Image
3 likes   

Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#359 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:45 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#360 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:50 am

AJC3 wrote:If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008). However, both were 2 (Ike) to 4 (Betsy) weeks earlier in the season. A 175 mile radius gives you the very infamous Kate (November 1985) as another semi-analog, as well as an unnamed hurricane in mid September 1947.

https://i.imgur.com/vEkAiaE.jpg


Indeed Betsy and Ike were earlier in the hurricane season but the pattern across the western Atlantic into the eastern US will be very much like the middle of the summer, fairly unusual for this time of the year.

Image
2 likes   


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests