ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

Wow not much of a system. The NHC has to decide - leave it a TS or downgrade it to a depression but leave the TS Watch up for PR and the VI's. Not even a substaintial depression at this point, compared to TD 13...

[SFLcane]

Still firing convection...

[wxman57]

If that burst of convection east of where the center should be continues, then Karen will survive.

[GCANE]

That tower is firing constant lightning and moving west.
Its trying to wrap around the CoC.

[GCANE]

Its starting to tap into high TPW air to its west over the Carib.
There is a ton of high TPW air over South America, east of the mountains.
Looks like it is starting to tap into that as well.

[tolakram]

Live visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=13014.59375&y=7635.36962890625

[tropicwatch]

Whatever is left of the circulation, looks like it just went under convection.

[GCANE]

Whatever is left of the circulation, looks like it just went under convection.

It went pretty fast.
Its developing a feeder band from the high TPW air over South America.

[GCANE]

Pretty good updraft from the tower.
The out-flowing cirrus from it is pushing out the shear.

[sma10]

Wow not much of a system. The NHC has to decide - leave it a TS or downgrade it to a depression but leave the TS Watch up for PR and the VI's. Not even a substaintial depression at this point, compared to TD 13...

Isn't Karen thus far behaving exactly as the models predicted? The Euro has insisted that the circulation would struggle over the latter part of the weekend up until the nearing of PR. Then once north of the islands, it will settle under an upper high and find better conditions mid week. Seems the NHC agrees

[GCANE]

That pocket of dry air isn't that big.
Since it appears moist air is over-riding it, it may in fact promote convection instead on hindering it.

[GCANE]

Wow not much of a system. The NHC has to decide - leave it a TS or downgrade it to a depression but leave the TS Watch up for PR and the VI's. Not even a substaintial depression at this point, compared to TD 13...

Isn't Karen thus far behaving exactly as the models predicted? The Euro has insisted that the circulation would struggle over the latter part of the weekend up until the nearing of PR. Then once north of the islands, it will settle under an upper high and find better conditions mid week. Seems the NHC agrees

I got a feeling it'll be a bit stronger by the time it gets near PR.

[GCANE]

Nothing really pushing on the vorts which would not allow them to expand vertically and try to stack up.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1176136277470695430

[wx98]

What about the possibility of this getting shredded apart when crossing PR. I haven’t heard anyone mention it; it’s barely together now as it is.

[toad strangler]

What about the possibility of this getting shredded apart when crossing PR. I haven’t heard anyone mention it; it’s barely together now as it is.

Always a good possibility, however, weaker systems can kind of move right past without much disruption because there isn’t much to disrupt and especially if it’s moving at a decent clip. PR isn’t very large and especially so in a S to N direction like Karen will be moving.

[sma10]

What about the possibility of this getting shredded apart when crossing PR. I haven’t heard anyone mention it; it’s barely together now as it is.

That's even assuming the circulation goes directly over the island. The Euro, for example, only brushes the eastern coast and stays mostly over water

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176118237005791232




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1176146531801587712

[GCANE]

That dry-air slot is quickly filling in.
If recon records 1007 or below, PR should be on their toes.

[wxman57]

What about the possibility of this getting shredded apart when crossing PR. I haven’t heard anyone mention it; it’s barely together now as it is.

That's even assuming the circulation goes directly over the island. The Euro, for example, only brushes the eastern coast and stays mostly over water

There has to be something to shear apart for a storm to be sheared apart crossing land. Karen is little more than a strong tropical wave with a broad, weak low pressure area today. It won't even notice Puerto Rico as it passes the island in its current state.