ATL: KAREN - Models

[sma10]

The usual "wait and see" approach is so much more valid in this particular case.

GFS is pretty much saying Jerry will exit quickly enough for the ridge to build in and capture Karen. But is not particularly bullish on developing karen at all. The Euro is similar but develops Karen significantly after barely giving enough space between the two systems for the ridge to capture her. And the UK is equally as stubborn in insisting the two systems will dance with each other

[Hurricaneman]

12Z GFS with an upper anticyclone at 120 hours yet no strengthening? Vibes of Humberto here...

I don’t think the GFS has a good grasp of Karen yet in terms of strength but the track is on line with the consensus of the models

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET looks kind of like the 12Z ICON, which is heavily influenced by Jerry:

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 64.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 0 14.2N 64.5W 1008 34
0000UTC 24.09.2019 12 15.8N 66.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 24.09.2019 24 17.1N 66.3W 1007 28
0000UTC 25.09.2019 36 19.4N 65.4W 1006 31
1200UTC 25.09.2019 48 22.2N 64.4W 1004 37
0000UTC 26.09.2019 60 25.3N 63.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 26.09.2019 72 28.1N 62.2W 999 43
0000UTC 27.09.2019 84 30.4N 61.5W 998 49
1200UTC 27.09.2019 96 32.0N 61.6W 1001 36
0000UTC 28.09.2019 108 32.8N 62.6W 1004 32
1200UTC 28.09.2019 120 33.2N 65.2W 1006 31
0000UTC 29.09.2019 132 33.6N 68.2W 1004 43
1200UTC 29.09.2019 144 33.0N 70.3W 1001 47

[chris_fit]

I remember with Dorian there were many many runs where GFS lost it once it got north of PR... This gives me vibes of that

[Frank2]

The hard left of yesterday is quickly being abandoned by most models - it just didn't seem logical from the start...

Not saying we're all-clear but definitely the Dorian/Humberto/Jerry trough is the more likely outcome...

We may have a fish sale with Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo all on the scales : )

[toad strangler]

The hard left of yesterday is quickly being abandoned by most models - it just didn't seem logical from the start...

Not saying we're all-clear but definitely the Dorian/Humberto/Jerry trough is the more likely outcome...

Disagree, the 12z GFS still makes the hard left. But, its just a few clouds
The 0z Euro makes the hard left with a bit stronger of a system.
So, you can't say "most models are quickly abandoning" when the GFS and Euro still show it.

[AJC3]

If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008). However, both were 2 (Ike) to 4 (Betsy) weeks earlier in the season. A 175 mile radius gives you the very infamous Kate (November 1985) as another semi-analog, as well as an unnamed hurricane in mid September 1947.

https://i.imgur.com/vEkAiaE.jpg

While such a prolonged westerly track from a relatively high latitude is rare in late Sep/early Oct, it's not unprecedented.

Here are four examples. Hurricane Kate (which you mentioned) in Nov 1985 moved west from the SE Bahamas into N Cuba, before recurving N and NE and hitting the FL panhandle as a Cat 2.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _track.png

A late Sep hurricane in 1941 developed NE of PR and moved W to WNW, hitting S FL as a Cat 2.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _track.png

An early Oct hurricane in 1929 developed N of PR and initially moved NW, then turned sharply SW toward the N Bahamas, hitting Nassau hard before striking extreme S FL as a Cat 3.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _track.png

A hurricane in 1893 developed in late Sep south of the Cape Verde Islands, then turned NW passing several hundred miles NE of the Leeward Islands. It then bent back to the WNW, passing across the far N Bahamas. Finally, it turned N, brushing the NE FL and GA coasts, then making a rare landfall in SC in mid-Oct as a Cat 3!

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _track.png

For sure, all great analogs for a system to actually reach south FL and the GOMEX, but to be clear my post was with respect to the 00Z OP-ECM solution which actually threatened coastal TX.

[gatorcane]

CMC looks more realistic than the GFS on intensity through 72 hours

[AtlanticWind]

The hard left of yesterday is quickly being abandoned by most models - it just didn't seem logical from the start...

Not saying we're all-clear but definitely the Dorian/Humberto/Jerry trough is the more likely outcome...

We may have a fish sale with Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo all on the scales : )

The 2 most reliable models GFS and Euro make the hard left.
So to me that is what I would be expecting at this point, What Karen will be is the question.

[sma10]

The hard left of yesterday is quickly being abandoned by most models - it just didn't seem logical from the start...

Not saying we're all-clear but definitely the Dorian/Humberto/Jerry trough is the more likely outcome...

We may have a fish sale with Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo all on the scales : )

Lol, ok Frank, whatever
You realize the 12z GFS tracks Karen (or what is left of her) into the western Gulf, right?

[toad strangler]

CMC looks more realistic than the GFS on intensity through 72 hours

CMC will send her away OTS again. A climo type recurve.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The hard left of yesterday is quickly being abandoned by most models - it just didn't seem logical from the start...

Not saying we're all-clear but definitely the Dorian/Humberto/Jerry trough is the more likely outcome...

We may have a fish sale with Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo all on the scales : )

Lol, ok Frank, whatever
You realize the 12z GFS tracks Karen (or what is left of her) into the western Gulf, right?

exactly. it’s very hard to go against the euro AND gfs showing something. 3-4 days out

[fci]

The hard left of yesterday is quickly being abandoned by most models - it just didn't seem logical from the start...

Not saying we're all-clear but definitely the Dorian/Humberto/Jerry trough is the more likely outcome...

We may have a fish sale with Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo all on the scales : )

NHC has the hard turn left at 96-120 hours at 27.0
Seems like they are buying it and increasing strength from 60mph to 70mph

[Nuno]

The hard left of yesterday is quickly being abandoned by most models - it just didn't seem logical from the start...

Not saying we're all-clear but definitely the Dorian/Humberto/Jerry trough is the more likely outcome...

We may have a fish sale with Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo all on the scales : )

What models are you looking at to come to this conclusion?

[AtlanticWind]

The hard left of yesterday is quickly being abandoned by most models - it just didn't seem logical from the start...

Not saying we're all-clear but definitely the Dorian/Humberto/Jerry trough is the more likely outcome...

We may have a fish sale with Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo all on the scales : )

It is actually very "logical" if that what models are showing. Forecasting Hurricanes is now science.
Climatology is not used per se ,as any effects of seasonal changes would be reflected in the models.

I am not saying that Karen could not go out to sea, but I will go with the NHC forecasts which reflect
the best of meteorlogical science.

[Blown Away]

If this OTS talk after PR happens, would mean Euro has to swing from heading to Bay of Campeche to W Atlantic. I’ll do the trend post for that.

[p1nheadlarry]

12Z GFS with an upper anticyclone at 120 hours yet no strengthening? Vibes of Humberto here...

High midlevel shear

[toad strangler]

12z GFS Legacy shows the same hard left as the 12z GFS and the 0z Euro but total poofs any hint of vorticity

[sma10]

I just think the degree of difficulty on this particular one is a 10/10.

It's hard enough to predict how strong the ridge will be, when/if Karen is trapped, will she or won't she strengthen ..... but with Jerry added to the mix, the complexity is super high.

In the event the UK is right, for example, do we even know for certain how two tropical storms will interact with each other. Is it forecastable? The UK has insisted on a fujiwhara the last several runs but each time it happens the two systems end up in completely different places.

[StormLogic]

IMO this will be a bigger threat next week. Till then the models are going to flip-pity flop. The high ridge will most likely build up sometime this week headed into next week. I will check back on Karen in a few days.