Hammy wrote:We're not likely to have had more than three hurricanes by September 20 by the look of things--that number is behind every hurricane season in the last quarter century save for 2002, 09, 13, and 15.
Well you definitely jinxed that
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Hammy wrote:We're not likely to have had more than three hurricanes by September 20 by the look of things--that number is behind every hurricane season in the last quarter century save for 2002, 09, 13, and 15.
somethingfunny wrote:Steve wrote:70.7 ACE per CSU and 10 named storms. Jerry probably gets us to 80+/- with it now scheduled to be a hurricane at least from tomorrow morning through Monday night. It’s not quite to 30N at that point so you have to figure it should be a hurricane for the better part of a week
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents
We are at 10 named storms which is a hair below average but a couple named storms ahead of normal for this date. Looks like we are heading into an average season at a minimum and possibly to the higher end of average range in most categories. For the perennial downcasters and cult of 2013, I’d suggest you all develop more patience in July and the first 3 weeks of August and wait to see what happens.
My favorite downcasters are the ones who had the audacity to reappear immediately after Dorian and Gabrielle dissipated.
StruThiO wrote:Looks like the destructive 2019 season is continuing with Imelda whom is trying her d*mn hardest to be retired.
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:somethingfunny wrote:Steve wrote:70.7 ACE per CSU and 10 named storms. Jerry probably gets us to 80+/- with it now scheduled to be a hurricane at least from tomorrow morning through Monday night. It’s not quite to 30N at that point so you have to figure it should be a hurricane for the better part of a week
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents
We are at 10 named storms which is a hair below average but a couple named storms ahead of normal for this date. Looks like we are heading into an average season at a minimum and possibly to the higher end of average range in most categories. For the perennial downcasters and cult of 2013, I’d suggest you all develop more patience in July and the first 3 weeks of August and wait to see what happens.
My favorite downcasters are the ones who had the audacity to reappear immediately after Dorian and Gabrielle dissipated.
Then we had a strong cat 3 just days after people claimed Dorian was a fluke.
Florida1118 wrote:Hammy wrote:We're not likely to have had more than three hurricanes by September 20 by the look of things--that number is behind every hurricane season in the last quarter century save for 2002, 09, 13, and 15.
Well you definitely jinxed that
Hammy wrote:https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif
Is this graph believable anymore
CyclonicFury wrote:8 named storms have formed since August 20, along with three hurricanes and two majors. Once again, climatology rules the Atlantic, and the models showing a dead peak in mid-late August were wrong. Despite the low start, the Atlantic is now above average in named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE. We now have a hurricane in the MDR (Jerry), and the GFS and ECMWF models both suggest we could see another hurricane form in the MDR next week. The Atlantic active era seems to still be ongoing.
Hopefully season cancelers before September have learned their lesson. But I'm sure they'll be back at it next year...
Steve wrote:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
MJO is forecasted pretty far out of the circle in Phases 8 and 1. Counter-clockwise rotation that far out the circle and down through Phase 2 would pretty much ensure continued tropical activity for the next 2 weeks at least. We know Jerry's going to be around for at least 5 days, then we have other stuff to look at. 2 seems to be a hyper phase for the Western Atlantic and has been a pretty reliable indicator of activity over the last couple of seasons.
Also I trust Colorado State 1000x more than Ryan Maue who annoys me when he gets arrogant. But his site shows the North Atlantic at 81.7425 ACE whereas through 11am Eastern time, CSU has it 74.5. Anyone know the discrepancy?
1900hurricane wrote:Honestly, things to me look pretty average overall. +VPA is beginning to move away from Africa, so I might expect slightly below average activity over the next week or so, but that still leaves most of September. After that, guidance differs on what to do with the +VPA, with some camping it out near the IDL while others have dual maxes over the CPac and IO. The second would be a more favorable look for the NAtl, but it's worth noting that the +PDO may favor the CPac location. +VPA might not be make or break in September anyway, and other signals don't appear particularly strong to me either way. 1970-2018 average September ACE is about 48 for the NAtl by the way, which is about half the season's ACE on average. Currently, I'm thinking we might see a 40-50 ACE September, which is near to slightly below the mean, but also right near the median.
https://i.imgur.com/9oXxN3y.gif
https://i.imgur.com/GfZA307.png
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