ATL: KAREN - Models

[chris_fit]

Karen falling apart circa 12z GFS

[toad strangler]

This is just a wave 144-168 hrs on 12z Euro

[SFLcane]

What is gonna miss a batch of showers...EURO caves

Very hostile enviroment-RIP

[sma10]

For me, the takeaway from the 12Z Euro is 'precision'

If future runs trend further east it may lead to an escape, but even if it doesn't, clearly karen will not be situated precisely under the ridge and get sheared brutally. However, if any trending back to the west occurs over the next 96 hrs, the opposite would likely happen

[chris_fit]

Just a wave

[toad strangler]

EDIT .... open wave slows down big time 192-216 in S FL / FL Straits region

[chris_fit]

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/4SGmuzo.png

strange to slow it down so much with the ridge locked into place, lets see if it survives today before we get too concerned about a 7 day euro run

[tgenius]

https://i.imgur.com/4SGmuzo.png

strange to slow it down so much with the ridge locked into place, lets see if it survives today before we get too concerned about a 7 day euro run

If this were to play out, thats 24 hours of rain on us, which wouldn't be good...

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 228-40 turns the wave NW into the E GOM. Fortunately just a wave on this run. Now time for the EPS.

[chris_fit]

Not going to Mexico....

[gatorcane]

JMA much more bullish as is the NAVGEM. BTW didn’t the Euro and GFS show a wave into the Bahamas when Dorian was in the ECAR?

[Ubuntwo]

So as far as I can tell the later turn further east stems from differences in Jerry’s movements. 0z had it moving NNW for the first 24 hours, this run has much more of a west component so it’s further south when Karen comes by and has more steering influence before the ridge cuts it off.

[stormlover2013]

we will see if a cold front is sweeping down at that time,how strong will it be, how weak will it be, will it be there that time next week. Lots of players

[1900hurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/4SGmuzo.png

strange to slow it down so much with the ridge locked into place, lets see if it survives today before we get too concerned about a 7 day euro run

With a weak shallow solution like this, steering layer would be lower in the atmosphere. In this case, a lower level steering layer is weaker/slower than the higher one.

[toad strangler]

JMA much more bullish as is the NAVGEM. BTW didn’t the Euro and GFS show a wave into the Bahamas when Dorian was in the ECAR?

Euro and GFS showed a weak storm into the Bahamas / FL area for many runs until just after he cleared PR when they then began to ramp him up.

[ronjon]

Have to treat the intensity forecasts with even more uncertainty than track - synoptics looking increasingly set in stone with anomalously strong 500 mb ridge pattern. Many days to watch but riding under a strong ridge was the prescription for many a strong storm in the past (i.e. Andrew, Ike, Rita, Katrina) - not saying that will happen here but should be cautious about writing anything off now.

[chris_fit]

LarryWX - How are them EPS lookin'

Throw us a bone here

[sma10]

JMA much more bullish as is the NAVGEM. BTW didn’t the Euro and GFS show a wave into the Bahamas when Dorian was in the ECAR?

JMA and NAVGEM get Karen captured further west by the high, that's the difference

[LarryWx]

LarryWX - How are them EPS lookin'

Throw us a bone here

Not surprisingly, it isn't as active as the 0Z's ~25% CONUS hitting members but I wouldn't call it quiet by any means. Maybe still 15% hitting on 12Z EPS with hits skewed later than the 0Z with some of these later ones recurving over FL back into the Atlantic or SE US, the climo path for early Oct.