ATL: KAREN - Models

[stormlover2013]

So as far as I can tell the later turn further east stems from differences in Jerry’s movements. 0z had it moving NNW for the first 24 hours, this run has much more of a west component so it’s further south when Karen comes by and has more steering influence before the ridge cuts it off.

Cold front is stronger that's why

[Blown Away]

18z Intensity guidance on the rise, IVCN nearing Cat 2 at @120 hours... Overall pretty big intensity increase in 18z guidance vs prior runs... Makes sense since Euro/GFS have a weak system...

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS

[Blown Away]

So as far as I can tell the later turn further east stems from differences in Jerry’s movements. 0z had it moving NNW for the first 24 hours, this run has much more of a west component so it’s further south when Karen comes by and has more steering influence before the ridge cuts it off.

Cold front is stronger that's why

12z Euro was a bit slower and east through 120 hours, likely why it didn’t make it farther in the GOM before finding weakness..

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Intensity guidance on the rise, IVCN nearing Cat 2 at @120 hours... Overall pretty big intensity increase in 18z guidance vs prior runs... Makes sense since Euro/GFS have a weak system...

Hello,

Can you post a graphic of the latest intensity guidance?

Thanks

[ronjon]

18z Intensity guidance on the rise, IVCN nearing Cat 2 at @120 hours... Overall pretty big intensity increase in 18z guidance vs prior runs... Makes sense since Euro/GFS have a weak system...

Hello,

Can you post a graphic of the latest intensity guidance?

Thanks

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_intensity_latest.png

[sma10]

12Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/gMkh6XX.png

Of note: very, very few recurves. Vast majority are either retrograding or dissipation (or both)

[gatorcane]

I think the intensity consensus IVCN is being skewed by COTI (NAVGEM) which shows a CAT 4

[Blown Away]

I think the intensity consensus IVCN is being skewed by COTI (NAVGEM) which shows a CAT 4

Maybe, but NHC hugs IVCN for intensity just like the TVCN for track...

[plasticup]

12Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/gMkh6XX.png

Of note: very, very few recurves. Vast majority are either retrograding or dissipation (or both)

Bermuda definitely not out of the woods yet.

[Weatherboy1]

It seems to me the important takeaway from all the modelling the last 48 hours is that whatever comes out of the Caribbean (a TS, a TS that degenerates into a strong wave, etc.) will likely get blocked from heading far out to sea/recurving. Not sure what will be left at that time. But multiple models are showing (and have consistently shown) a sharp "left turn" of something … with the exact turning point/latitude and strength at that time TBD. Globals tend to stink when it comes to forecasting intensity of smaller systems, as others have noted before.

[sma10]

It seems to me the important takeaway from all the modelling the last 48 hours is that whatever comes out of the Caribbean (a TS, a TS that degenerates into a strong wave, etc.) will likely get blocked from heading far out to sea/recurving. Not sure what will be left at that time. But multiple models are showing (and have consistently shown) a sharp "left turn" of something … with the exact turning point/latitude and strength at that time TBD. Globals tend to stink when it comes to forecasting intensity of smaller systems, as others have noted before.

Not to mention how incredibly complicated it gets when factoring in Jerry. The larger picture is that some "entity" will possibly be heading west. Anything more than that is guesswork

I suppose if there are two things to "look for" in the shorter run, to me it will be: how much does Karen develop/not develop over the next 3 days; and how close do the two systems get to each other. Both of these will factor into how far East Karen gets, which will likely affect strength later on.

[stormlover2013]

Models have been really really bad long term this year, I am still banking on it being a fish just a hunch with what has happen this year with storms around that area, but if it doesn't then GOM here we come.

[ava_ati]

Models have been really really bad long term this year, I am still banking on it being a fish just a hunch with what has happen this year with storms around that area, but if it doesn't then GOM here we come.

The models have been pretty dreadful in the short term with intensity as well minus hwrf and hmon but track wise you can't count on them for much of anything beyond 48 hours

[floridasun78]

twc see Karen becoming hurr by weekend do any show it been hurr by weekend?

[Dean4Storms]

I don't give a lot of credence to these models on intensity beyond a few days. That said I cannot remember the time a Storm got east of the Bahamas, got caught under a ridge even in early Oct. and started coming westward and fell apart, quite the contrary. The minor one good thing is that the SST's around the Bahamas have cooled from all the storm activity upwelling cooler water.

[Jr0d]

I don't give a lot of credence to these models on intensity beyond a few days. That said I cannot remember the time a Storm got east of the Bahamas, got caught under a ridge even in early Oct. and started coming westward and fell apart, quite the contrary. The minor one good thing is that the SST's around the Bahamas have cooled from all the storm activity upwelling cooler water.

The southern Bahamas did not get much upwelling, this might be significant if Karen goes with a more southern track.

It is interesting that the intensity models show a potentially stronger storm while the GFS and Euro show a weaker one with their latest runs. Being in the Keys, I will definately be paying attention all week.

[AJC3]

Gang, the mods and admins have had to do quite a bit of cleanup in both Karen threads. Post that were ill-advised, over the top, short/chatty to the point of contributing nothing are getting zapped...and so are replies to them. We're trying really hard to keep the threads cleaned up.

We encourage using the chat room for short back and forth and OT chit-chat. Try and keep your posts in here longer, more well thought out, and relevant. Thanks

[LarryWx]

18Z ICON lags Jerry more (consistent with his recent lack of motion) and this later results in a merge between Karen and Jerry!

[DestinHurricane]

GFS slightly stronger at hour 120