ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[USVIKimmie]

For the folks (like moi) in the VI and PR it’s still going to wreak havoc if it’s “dead” or not

[GCANE]

Big tower with intense lightning south of the CoC.
Bones don't surf.

[SoupBone]

Big tower with intense lightning south of the CoC.
Bones don't surf.

No offense to any posters, especially the other pro Mets that I respect, but the only person allowed to bring out bones is wxman57.

[SFLcane]

This is now a tropical depression... ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal122019.dat

[otowntiger]

This is now a tropical depression... ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal122019.dat

And that’s probably being generous.

[gatorcane]

Has that look though it can wrap up once it finds better conditions, nice moisture envelope.

[sma10]

Big tower with intense lightning south of the CoC.
Bones don't surf.

No offense to any posters, especially the other pro Mets that I respect, but the only person allowed to bring out bones is wxman57.

Even the reliably bearish wxman57 isn't going to bring out Bones until he sees what the situation looks like in the SW Atlantic later this week.

[wx98]

...KAREN STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23
Location: 15.9°N 65.6°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[mpic]

my weather app just said she's been downgraded to a tropical depression?

[Frank2]

Good to see the downgrade - bodies are still being pulled out of the ruuble on Abaco and GBI so the last thing they need is a threatening hurricane (and another round of extreme stress here in Southeast Florida). Ironically, this was thought to be the original Dorian outcome but that system was larger and had much more convection than the present, the result it was able to overcome the dry air than the now very weak depression.

[floridasun78]

my weather app just said she's been downgraded to a tropical depression?

it is now TD

[wxman57]

Bones is waiting to see what happens with Karen over the next few days. Even though Karen is really a tropical wave rather than a depression (a tropical depression classification really requires an LLC), tropical waves can develop into hurricanes. They have no memory of their previous lives. One such system that weakened to a wave but was reborn was Katrina in 2005. I'm not suggesting that Karen will become Katrina, just that there is a fair chance it will develop an LLC and regenerate. Maybe an equal chance it won't survive.

[gatorcane]

Good to see the downgrade - bodies are still being pulled out of the ruuble on Abaco and GBI so the last thing they need is a threatening hurricane (and another round of extreme stress here in Southeast Florida). Ironically, this was thought to be the original Dorian outcome but that system was larger and had much more convection than the present, the result it was able to overcome the dry air than the now very weak depression.

I don’t think Dorian was larger or had more convection. When I look at the sat imagery seems ex-Karen has a vigorous circulation with a lot of pulsing convection on the south and east sides. If it can find favorable conditions, it could be off to the races. The models basically showed Dorian as a wave (GFS) and a TS (Euro) in the Bahamas around this time. Not saying this will be a Dorian but as other members have noted, systems that get under a building ridge in this part of the Atlantic usually blossom.

[USTropics]

Bones is waiting to see what happens with Karen over the next few days. Even though Karen is really a tropical wave rather than a depression (a tropical depression classification really requires an LLC), tropical waves can develop into hurricanes. They have no memory of their previous lives. One such system that weakened to a wave but was reborn was Katrina in 2005. I'm not suggesting that Karen will become Katrina, just that there is a fair chance it will develop an LLC and regenerate. Maybe an equal chance it won't survive.

Another example of a storm that struggled and essentially degenerated to a wave, I wouldn't sleep on any westward moving system in the Bahamas this season until it's well inland:

By early August 18, the storm maintained convection near the center with spiral bands to its west as the winds increased to 50 mph (80 km/h). Shortly thereafter, the storm began weakening because of increased southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level low. On August 19, a Hurricane Hunters flight into the storm failed to locate a well-defined center and on the following day, a flight found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained; observations indicated the barometric pressure rose to an unusually high 1,015 mbar (29.97 inHg). The flight indicated that Andrew maintained a vigorous circulation aloft. After the upper-level low weakened and split into a trough, the wind shear decreased over the storm.

[caneseddy]

Bones is waiting to see what happens with Karen over the next few days. Even though Karen is really a tropical wave rather than a depression (a tropical depression classification really requires an LLC), tropical waves can develop into hurricanes. They have no memory of their previous lives. One such system that weakened to a wave but was reborn was Katrina in 2005. I'm not suggesting that Karen will become Katrina, just that there is a fair chance it will develop an LLC and regenerate. Maybe an equal chance it won't survive.

Another example of a storm that struggled and essentially degenerated to a wave, I wouldn't sleep on any westward moving system in the Bahamas this season until it's well inland:

By early August 18, the storm maintained convection near the center with spiral bands to its west as the winds increased to 50 mph (80 km/h). Shortly thereafter, the storm began weakening because of increased southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level low. On August 19, a Hurricane Hunters flight into the storm failed to locate a well-defined center and on the following day, a flight found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained; observations indicated the barometric pressure rose to an unusually high 1,015 mbar (29.97 inHg). The flight indicated that Andrew maintained a vigorous circulation aloft. After the upper-level low weakened and split into a trough, the wind shear decreased over the storm.

Harvey in 2017 also degenerated into a wave in the Caribbean and we all know the end result

[AJC3]

Gang, the mods and admins have had to do quite a bit of cleanup in both Karen threads. Post that were ill-advised, over the top, short/chatty to the point of contributing nothing are getting zapped...and so are replies to them. We're trying really hard to keep the threads cleaned up.

We encourage using the chat room for short back and forth and OT chit-chat. Try and keep your posts in here longer, more well thought out, and relevant. Thanks

[LarryWx]

Jerry has lagged and continues to lag quite a bit today in gaining latitude. First of all, he had been progged to reach 28.6 N at 2 PM today per the 5 AM NHC advisory, but he only made it to 28.4 N at 5 PM, 3 hours later. Also, the 11 AM had him up to 29.2 as of 8 PM this evening but he's only up to 28.4 N as of 5 PM (only moved 0.3 N over last 6 hours). The implications may be large on the future tracks of not only Jerry, himself, but also Karen. The interaction between systems is one of the most fascinating things about weather!

[GCANE]

Large tower firing off with well over 3"/hr rain rate.
Comes on the heals of a vortical hot tower.
They usually push the mid-level vorts down to the surface.

DMIN is over, upper troposphere is cooling.
Could see more convectiive bursts tonight.

[Ubuntwo]

Jerry has lagged and continues to lag quite a bit today in gaining latitude. First of all, he had been progged to reach 28.6 N at 2 PM today per the 5 AM NHC advisory, but he only made it to 28.4 N at 5 PM, 3 hours later. Also, the 11 AM had him up to 29.2 as of 8 PM this evening but he's only up to 28.4 N as of 5 PM (only moved 0.3 N over last 6 hours). The implications may be large on the future tracks of not only Jerry, himself, but also Karen. The interaction between systems is one of the most fascinating things about weather!

Seems like Jerry is taking a decently quick jog to the NE in recent imagery to under that new convection. Maybe a quarter of a degree north. It's catching up, at least it has been for the past hour or so.

[SoupBone]

Bones is waiting to see what happens with Karen over the next few days. Even though Karen is really a tropical wave rather than a depression (a tropical depression classification really requires an LLC), tropical waves can develop into hurricanes. They have no memory of their previous lives. One such system that weakened to a wave but was reborn was Katrina in 2005. I'm not suggesting that Karen will become Katrina, just that there is a fair chance it will develop an LLC and regenerate. Maybe an equal chance it won't survive.

Yeah my post looks pretty stupid now that the other posts have been removed. There's no context. Someone was calling for bones in previous posts.