ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Pressure seemed to have dropped a little.

[plasticup]

Tight circulation, completely exposed. Rare to see one holding together so well without a drop of convection overhead

[LarryWx]

It looks to my eyeballs like Jerry has mainly moved only a hair west since 5AM, when the NHC had him at 27.8N, 67.7W. The 2PM prog by the NHC, which is matched well by the models, is 28.6N, 68.1W. He is going to have to gain a good bit of north component over the next 3 hours to get up to 28.6N or else models like the UKMET and some of the ensemble members leaving him behind as a low level swirl will have to start being looked at a little more.

[Buck]

Forecast track and intensity about the same at 1100.

...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23
Location: 28.1°N 68.0°W
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[Steve H.]

Seems that Jerry has slowed to a crawl and taking a slow west bend, pretty much a stall. This could end up clogging the whole pipeline of storms which hopefully will bring Atlantic threats to an early end. Just have to watch the Western Caribbean then.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[plasticup]

Seems that Jerry has slowed to a crawl and taking a slow west bend, pretty much a stall. This could end up clogging the whole pipeline of storms which hopefully will bring Atlantic threats to an early end. Just have to watch the Western Caribbean then.

This stall was predicted by the NHC. Movement seems consistent with their forecast IMO.

[LarryWx]

Jerry has lagged and continues to lag quite a bit today in gaining latitude. First of all, he had been progged to reach 28.6 N at 2 PM today per the 5 AM NHC advisory, but he only made it to 28.4 N at 5 PM, 3 hours later. Also, the 11 AM had him up to 29.2 as of 8 PM this evening but he's only up to 28.4 N as of 5 PM (only moved 0.3 N over last 6 hours). The implications may be large on the future tracks of not only Jerry, himself, but also Karen. The interaction between systems is one of the most fascinating things about weather!

[sma10]

Jerry has lagged and continues to lag quite a bit today in gaining latitude. First of all, he had been progged to reach 28.6 N at 2 PM today per the 5 AM NHC advisory, but he only made it to 28.4 N at 5 PM, 3 hours later. Also, the 11 AM had him up to 29.2 as of 8 PM this evening but he's only up to 28.4 N as of 5 PM (only moved 0.3 N over last 6 hours). The implications may be large on the future tracks of not only Jerry, himself, but also Karen. The interaction between systems is one of the most fascinating things about weather!

With each passing run, it seems Jerry is progged slower and Karen is progged faster. I'm starting to become a believer in the UK solution of a dance. Which tbh would be fascinating because I've never seen one and frankly do not know what to expect. According to the 12z UK, jerry will meander basically where he is now, and Karen will rotate completely around him winding up on a SW heading north of the Bahamas by day 7

[LarryWx]

Jerry has lagged and continues to lag quite a bit today in gaining latitude. First of all, he had been progged to reach 28.6 N at 2 PM today per the 5 AM NHC advisory, but he only made it to 28.4 N at 5 PM, 3 hours later. Also, the 11 AM had him up to 29.2 as of 8 PM this evening but he's only up to 28.4 N as of 5 PM (only moved 0.3 N over last 6 hours). The implications may be large on the future tracks of not only Jerry, himself, but also Karen. The interaction between systems is one of the most fascinating things about weather!

With each passing run, it seems Jerry is progged slower and Karen is progged faster. I'm starting to become a believer in the UK solution of a dance. Which tbh would be fascinating because I've never seen one and frankly do not know what to expect. According to the 12z UK, jerry will meander basically where he is now, and Karen will rotate completely around him winding up on a SW heading north of the Bahamas by day 7

Add the 18Z GFS and Legacy to the ICON in trending toward this vs 12Z.

[Ubuntwo]

Center fix is .2 degrees due north of the 5PM position. That is right on pace to reach the 12hr position.

[wx98]

Amazing to me that Jerry has continued to keep roughly the same intensity for the last couple days. He is consistent for sure

[plasticup]

Jerry has lagged and continues to lag quite a bit today in gaining latitude. First of all, he had been progged to reach 28.6 N at 2 PM today per the 5 AM NHC advisory, but he only made it to 28.4 N at 5 PM, 3 hours later. Also, the 11 AM had him up to 29.2 as of 8 PM this evening but he's only up to 28.4 N as of 5 PM (only moved 0.3 N over last 6 hours). The implications may be large on the future tracks of not only Jerry, himself, but also Karen. The interaction between systems is one of the most fascinating things about weather!

With each passing run, it seems Jerry is progged slower and Karen is progged faster. I'm starting to become a believer in the UK solution of a dance. Which tbh would be fascinating because I've never seen one and frankly do not know what to expect. According to the 12z UK, jerry will meander basically where he is now, and Karen will rotate completely around him winding up on a SW heading north of the Bahamas by day 7

Doesn't the UKMET bring Karen over Bermuda too, for the islands' 3rd storm in 2 weeks? I haven't seen the UKMET forecast for Jerry. Do you have one to share?

[Kazmit]

Recon is finding some stronger winds, probably 60kts when converted to surface-level.

[Buck]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1176275878319288320

[Kazmit]

The turn to the NNE seems to have started. I wonder if this actually makes a landfall on Bermuda.

[plasticup]

Recon is finding some stronger winds, probably 60kts when converted to surface-level.

Think he'll make a run at hurricane strength again? Certainly looks healthier on IR.

[Kazmit]

Recon is finding some stronger winds, probably 60kts when converted to surface-level.

Think he'll make a run at hurricane strength again? Certainly looks healthier on IR.

Recon shows it's very close. A hurricane watch might be a good idea, but I don't know if it can get much stronger with an exposed center like that.

[1900hurricane]

In case anyone wants to know what 50+ kt of shear looks like.

[AnnularCane]

Ouch, it's just knifing right into him.

[somethingfunny]

Recon is finding some stronger winds, probably 60kts when converted to surface-level.

Think he'll make a run at hurricane strength again? Certainly looks healthier on IR.

Recon shows it's very close. A hurricane watch might be a good idea, but I don't know if it can get much stronger with an exposed center like that.

https://i.imgur.com/c7SyyKl.png

I recall Humberto basically had an exposed center with 100kt+ winds. Keep your guard up in Bermuda.