ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

radar and satellite overlay. with both recon fixes circled in white.

[SFLcane]

radar and satellite overlay. with both recon fixes circled in white.

https://i.ibb.co/DLdRcNf/Capture.png

Just towers very little organization.

[Blown Away]

radar and satellite overlay. with both recon fixes circled in white.

https://i.ibb.co/DLdRcNf/Capture.png

I assuming any delay will cause Karen to turn W at lower latitude as the HP builds in?

[gatorcane]

I think the convection burst we are seeing this evening saves Karen...

[sma10]

That a vigorous 850mb vortex. Hard to believe she dies. Environment north of PR looks favorable with a huge upper anticyclone. Think the models are going to start ramping her up more in subsequent runs, once Jerry is out of the picture.

https://i.postimg.cc/qqJb7V7t/wg8vor.gif

That is a huge assumption, and the thing that is getting severely underplayed. Jerry is crawling at a snail's pace, while Karen continues barreling forward. I think the likelihood of them interacting is significant

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely organizing more with some structured convection. Still sheared of course but holding its own as a TS.

[Ubuntwo]

That a vigorous 850mb vortex. Hard to believe she dies. Environment north of PR looks favorable with a huge upper anticyclone. Think the models are going to start ramping her up more in subsequent runs, once Jerry is out of the picture.

https://i.postimg.cc/qqJb7V7t/wg8vor.gif

That is a huge assumption, and the thing that is getting severely underplayed. Jerry is crawling at a snail's pace, while Karen continues barreling forward. I think the likelihood of them interacting is significant

Jerry is accelerating. The two VDMs were .412 degrees and 99 minutes apart. That's 28.4 miles and works out to 17 mph unless I seriously messed up my math.

[Blown Away]

Karen is exploding convection tonight...

[sma10]

That a vigorous 850mb vortex. Hard to believe she dies. Environment north of PR looks favorable with a huge upper anticyclone. Think the models are going to start ramping her up more in subsequent runs, once Jerry is out of the picture.

https://i.postimg.cc/qqJb7V7t/wg8vor.gif

That is a huge assumption, and the thing that is getting severely underplayed. Jerry is crawling at a snail's pace, while Karen continues barreling forward. I think the likelihood of them interacting is significant

Jerry is accelerating. The two VDMs were .412 degrees and 99 minutes apart. That's 28.4 miles and works out to 17 mph unless I seriously messed up my math.

That is very dubious. Jerry is crawling at 6mph and the NHC suggests this will continue

[Ubuntwo]

That is a huge assumption, and the thing that is getting severely underplayed. Jerry is crawling at a snail's pace, while karen continues barreling forward. I think the likelihood of them interacting is significant

Jerry is accelerating. The two VDMs were .412 degrees and 99 minutes apart. That's 28.4 miles and works out to 17 mph unless I seriously messed up my math.

That is very dubious. Jerry is crawling at 6mph and the NHC suggests this will continue

You can do the math yourself but just look at the recon data. It may have just been a short jog but it did cover nearly half a degree in an hour and a half.

[sma10]

Jerry is accelerating. The two VDMs were .412 degrees and 99 minutes apart. That's 28.4 miles and works out to 17 mph unless I seriously messed up my math.

That is very dubious. Jerry is crawling at 6mph and the NHC suggests this will continue

You can do the math yourself but just look at the recon data. It may have just been a short jog but it did cover nearly half a degree in an hour and a half.

Apologies, your math is fine. I just find that a sudden acceleration is doubtful. If it continues to move that much over several hours that's another story

[AutoPenalti]

Convection might be shear or DMAX induced.

[NDG]

One thing the recon has found tonight is a more defined circulation than this morning when it was much broader and they had difficulty centering a COC.

[AJC3]

As always, a great evening discussion of the tropics from Levi Cowan...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGdo0x1WGBA

[Blown Away]

The NHC holds serve keeping Karen a strong TS at day 5 and the west turn... I guess they need a few more model runs to buy into no development after day 4/5...

[toad strangler]

The NHC holds serve keeping Karen a strong TS at day 5 and the west turn... I guess they need a few more model runs to buy into no development after day 4/5...

I guess, but they aren’t model hugging so they are just part of the equation.

[AtlanticWind]

The NHC holds serve keeping Karen a strong TS at day 5 and the west turn... I guess they need a few more model runs to buy into no development after day 4/5...

They are right in line with the intensity models , so I not sure what you mean

[Hammy]

Plane finding TS winds out there with low rain rate, which is fairly surprising to say the least.

[AnnularCane]

Plane finding TS winds out there with low rain rate, which is fairly surprising to say the least.

What, the TS winds or the low rain rate?

[NDG]

6.3 magnitude earthquake of the north coast of Puerto Rico late Monday evening. No tsunami expected however. Weird event before Karen passing through tomorrow.