ATL: KAREN - Models

[sma10]

A very different solution being presented by the 00z GFS...interacts with Jerry and seems to be ready to be carried away to the North Atlantic.

I'm not so sure. This looks a lot like the Icon 0z which merged the two then both get pulled SW. It would certainly be a track for the ages

[SouthFLTropics]

A very different solution being presented by the 00z GFS...interacts with Jerry and seems to be ready to be carried away to the North Atlantic.

I'm not so sure. This looks a lot like the Icon 0z which merged the two then both get pulled SW. It would certainly be a track for the ages

Looks like you may be right...here comes the boomerang at hour 114.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though Karen wins on this run between Karen and Jerry

[sma10]

I think it's time to face the fact that we may very well see an extraordinary track. Two cyclones interacting, then retrograding back towards the US. Weird, very very rare stuff

[SouthFLTropics]

What a crazy setup this may end up being. Jerry and Karen dancing together and headed west while the CAG starts to spin up near Central America in the caribbean.

[jfk08c]

So if both systems merge, what name would it take? Or would it just be known as Kerry?

[sma10]

So if both systems merge, what name would it take? Or would it just be known as Kerry?

Or do they give birth to Melissa?

[AJC3]

So if both systems merge, what name would it take? Or would it just be known as Kerry?

TC Jaren? Kerry?

[Ubuntwo]

So if both systems merge, what name would it take? Or would it just be known as Kerry?

Or do they give birth to Melissa?

Think it takes the name of the stronger storm.

[jfk08c]

So if both systems merge, what name would it take? Or would it just be known as Kerry?

Or do they give birth to Melissa?

Think it takes the name of the stronger storm.

Tropical cyclone marriage law was never my strong suit

[Hurricaneman]

So if both systems merge, what name would it take? Or would it just be known as Kerry?

but this looks like a track I’ve never seen before, looks like it’s made up in someone’s head when some people make up tracks in the big ones thread. Karen seems to become the dominant feature while Jerry seems to dissipate while they head WSW

[sma10]

What a crazy setup this may end up being. Jerry and Karen dancing together and headed west while the CAG starts to spin up near Central America in the caribbean.

I know this sounds like a crazy question, but how reliable a scenario would this be? In other words, would even our best models adequately be able to forecast this result or would the NHC basically have to NowCast it?

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS Legacy makes Jerry the winner. Crazy times ahead and difficult solutions for the models. If this GFS run were to actually happen, I see many Master’s Thesis and Dissertations being done on this setup.

[AJC3]

So if both systems merge, what name would it take? Or would it just be known as Kerry?

Or do they give birth to Melissa?

Think it takes the name of the stronger storm.

It takes the name of whatever vortex is judged to be more coherent through the merger process. Normally this is the stronger and/or larger system, however it becomes more muddled when the two systems are similar in strength and size. The GFS looks to be about 50/50. I think it was the 18Z ICON which showed Jerry absorbing Karen's remnants.

[jfk08c]

What a crazy setup this may end up being. Jerry and Karen dancing together and headed west while the CAG starts to spin up near Central America in the caribbean.

I know this sounds like a crazy question, but how reliable a scenario would this be? In other words, would even our best models adequately be able to forecast this result or would the NHC basically have to NowCast it?

I don't think models are able to fully grasp the randomness of cyclone interactions. Not to say that it can't, but with the rarity of these types of interactions, the data just isn't as plentiful as you'd want it to be. Still plenty to be learned

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 180...what a mess...meanwhile, pay attention to what is happening in the SW Caribbean Sea.

[AJC3]

I take my previous post back. The GFS actually keeps the two weak vortices separate, but get this...it manages to push Jerry out AHEAD of Karen while moving westward.

[sma10]

If the models could talk, after being braced about this possible scenario:

GFS: "No way, count me out!"
Euro: "Forget about it!"
NAVGEM: "Hold my beer"

[Hurricaneman]

Hour 180...what a mess...meanwhile, pay attention to what is happening in the SW Caribbean Sea.

We may be seeing both Karen and Jerry get sucked into the CAG and it looks like the GFS May be hinting at it and why not, this year has been full of anomalies and strange stuff

[sma10]

Hour 180...what a mess...meanwhile, pay attention to what is happening in the SW Caribbean Sea.

We may be seeing both Karen and Jerry get sucked into the CAG and it looks like the GFS May be hinting at it and why not, this year has been full of anomalies and strange stuff

Oh but c'mon this is beyond anomalous. This is fanfic