ATL: KAREN - Models

[AJC3]

[Hurricaneman]

Hour 180...what a mess...meanwhile, pay attention to what is happening in the SW Caribbean Sea.

We may be seeing both Karen and Jerry get sucked into the CAG and it looks like the GFS May be hinting at it and why not, this year has been full of anomalies and strange stuff

Oh but c'mon this is beyond anomalous. This is fanfic

Looks like the moisture from Karen and Jerry get sucked into the CAG this run while the leftovers of I can’t tell if it’s Karen or Jerry over Florida

[sma10]

So can we accept this run verbatim and just say, "the two cyclones will interact and get sucked west and stay a mess"?

The icon has a similar solution but keeps a very nice system together

[ErinLee1979]

https://i.imgur.com/GkDQbPc.jpg

this is bizarre

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.imgur.com/GkDQbPc.jpg

this is bizarre

Yep, never seen anything like it

[WeatherEmperor]

Meanwhile, on today’s episode of “Ukmet does whatever it wants”, we have.....




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[AJC3]

So can we accept this run verbatim and just say, "the two cyclones will interact and get sucked west and stay a mess"?

The icon has a similar solution but keeps a very nice system together

The only thing I'm willing to accept verbatim is that the next GFS run is more likely to be completely different than not.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Just like Dorian, we know even less each day lol. 2019 gonna 2019

[sma10]

So can we accept this run verbatim and just say, "the two cyclones will interact and get sucked west and stay a mess"?

The icon has a similar solution but keeps a very nice system together

The only thing I'm willing to accept verbatim is that the next GFS run is more likely to be completely different than not.

And this is a Met talking! Lol

But seriously, in all your years with the tropics have you ever seen something like this with an actual real chance of happening? Also, does your gut tell you anything about how this will play out if they interact ?

[AJC3]

So can we accept this run verbatim and just say, "the two cyclones will interact and get sucked west and stay a mess"?

The icon has a similar solution but keeps a very nice system together

The only thing I'm willing to accept verbatim is that the next GFS run is more likely to be completely different than not.

And this is a Met talking! Lol

But seriously, in all your years with the tropics have you ever seen something like this with an actual real chance of happening? Also, does your gut tell you anything about how this will play out if they interact ?

I have serious doubts this will take place as advertised by the GFS. Then again, I'd say everything is low confidence at this point. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Tailspin]

From the WeatherUS model Glossary.

ICON - Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model
The ICON model is the German Meteorological Service’s global model. Its name references two parts of the model’s “under the hood” mechanics, its grid shape (Icosahedral) and the fact that it doesn’t assume the atmosphere is in hydrostatic balance (which lets the model consider the potential for thunderstorms). The ICON model is a global model, meaning it doesn’t have the highest resolution, but it extends out 5-8 days in time, and provides forecast data for the entire globe.

The ICON model is updated four times each day, generally around 5 and 11 AM/PM. The midday/midnight runs extend 180 hours (7.5 days) out, while the morning/evening runs extend only 120 hours (5 days) out.

How is the ICON’s forecast data best used? Because the ICON is a global model, it’s not run at a very high resolution. This means it can’t “see” certain small scale features very well, but it will get a pretty good handle on overall patterns/large scale storm features. For example, use the ICON (in combination with other guidance and non-model forecasting techniques!) to pick out the potential for an East Coast cyclone in the medium range. But don’t trust it to figure out exactly which towns might see a heavy snow band as that storm moves up the coast. Note that the accuracy of any model decreases quite a bit by the day 7 mark, so don’t take the ICON’s longer range forecasts too seriously.

https://weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fglossary

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: close to a merger with Jerry at 72 but not sure they'll actually merge.

[LarryWx]

Amazing! After being on the brink of a merger, Karen stops at 60W while Jerry continues out slowly!! Model cartoons or the real thing?

Edit: As a result of being in much lower shear than Jerry, Karen gets stronger while Jerry weakens.Now Karen starting a WSW move from 60W. How far west will she end up? Stay tuned!

[kevin]

And I thought Dorian was crazy in terms of model behavior. But this beats everything!

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: from 27N, 60W, she has moved due west to 27N, 70W as of hour 162 and there looks like there's no stopping her anytime soon! And she may be getting a bit stronger now even though shear is pretty high. .

[AtlanticWind]

Big changes from just 24 hours ago
I would almost guarantee we have many others in store
A complicated forecast!

[LarryWx]

She's still going W at 75W! Shear is high and I don't know how the sfc circ is being maintained!

[sma10]

0Z Euro: from 27N, 60W, she has moved due west to 27N, 70W as of hour 162 and there looks like there's no stopping her anytime soon! And she may be getting a bit stronger now even though shear is pretty high. .

Larry, tell me if you agree. In an apples to apples comparison with yesterday's 0z, it appears that jerry's movement is fairly similar in speed and direction, but yet karen finds herself turning and retrograding much further east than last night. I feel this might be caused by lack of development in days 2 and 3, as opposed to last night's run. Maybe a stronger karen at the earlier time frames allows her "to wrap up a bit tighter" and move slower?

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: from 27N, 60W, she has moved due west to 27N, 70W as of hour 162 and there looks like there's no stopping her anytime soon! And she may be getting a bit stronger now even though shear is pretty high. .

Larry, tell me if you agree. In an apples to apples comparison with yesterday's 0z, it appears that jerry's movement is fairly similar in speed and direction, but yet karen finds herself turning and retrograding much further east than last night. I feel this might be caused by lack of development in days 2 and 3, as opposed to last night's run. Maybe a stronger karen at the earlier time frames allows her "to wrap up a bit tighter" and move slower?

Perhaps you're right but don't forget that Jerry is a little closer than he was in yesterday's 0Z at the start.

[LarryWx]

LF just N of WPB at 222! This has to be one of the most amazing runs I've ever seen in the tropics! After barely missing getting absorbed by Jerry, she stops and then moves west 1500 miles!