ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

Karen looks a little better than yesterday when it was difficult to tell if there was actually any kind of circulation. Emphasis on LITTLE better. lol

[Aric Dunn]

It is clearly in the process of reforming. It does not always happen fast.

There are some dynamics at play that are modeled very poorly.


.. there will be a reformation at some point today.

Either in the next couple hours .. or after the weak vort that is currently the "center" moves over land... at which point the likely hood of a reformation increases.

Let alone what i mentioned in my previous post about possible reformation north of PR tonight.

[NDG]

Winds from the SW on the west side...That's a no on center reformation.

Wrong, nothing but NNW & NW winds on the west side, no SW winds yet.

From what i can tell the winds show no sign of the center re-forming

My point was that you saying that there is SW winds on the west side is wrong.

[jlauderdal]

Fewer models showing any significant westward turn than yesterday - apparently enough of a trough ahead of the next high to kick out both Jerry and Karen...

Frank, please read the 5 am discussion, the nhc is leaning heavily on the euro, those models kicking it out to see dont have the intensity correct....the other models have the steering flow wrong and thus are a complete opposite of the nhc 120h track..when was the last time the nhc was completely worng at 120h, thats what would have to happen if those other models were to verify

[NDG]

131530 1658N 06547W 8427 01575 0086 +184 +180 356008 009 016 000 00
131600 1659N 06546W 8429 01571 0086 +184 +183 346007 008 017 000 00

[Nuno]

Fewer models showing any significant westward turn than yesterday - apparently enough of a trough ahead of the next high to kick out both Jerry and Karen...

Which models are you referring to? I posted the latest 12z runs in the model thread and it's pretty much the same amount of models indicating a westward turn.

[NDG]

Where the recon found the latest wind shift, basically meandering around, now west from the latest fix, south of the first fix earlier this morning. An indication that is trying to reform closer to the MLC.

132000 1709N 06537W 8432 01570 //// +181 //// 097002 002 014 000 01
132030 1711N 06536W 8425 01577 //// +180 //// 134004 006 015 000 05

[GCANE]

Feeder Band is evolving and connecting with the evil twin.
This is going to be one big-ass TC.

[MGC]

Appears shear has dropped off quite a bit today. All Karen must contend with in the dry air to its north. Lots of rain in the south part of the storm. PR will have to deal with a good bit of flooding. Everyone on PR stay safe......MGC

[northjaxpro]

My prayers to all in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands who unfortunately have to deal with Karen.

[SFLcane]

Where the recon found the latest wind shift, basically meandering around, now west from the latest fix, south of the first fix earlier this morning. An indication that is trying to reform closer to the MLC.

132000 1709N 06537W 8432 01570 //// +181 //// 097002 002 014 000 01
132030 1711N 06536W 8425 01577 //// +180 //// 134004 006 015 000 05

It's pretty messy - all 3 fixes in the same area.

[jaxfladude]

Prayers to those impacted by and to be impacted by Karen......any idea on Karen post Caribbean or too soon to say.....?
Getting tired of this season!

[wxman57]

Still nothing but a weak TS approaching PR, and it is likely a TS in name only. Recon hasn't found any convincing surface winds to TS strength. There's no clear sign of center reformation. Pressure is holding steady or even rising slightly. Max FL winds still 35 kts. I don't think wind will be the issue for any of the islands. Squalls moving in after the center moves north of PR could produce heavy rainfall and flooding, however. Possibly some wind gusts to 40-45 mph in those squalls later this afternoon and overnight.

[Blown Away]

Clearly see low level clouds rotating around circulation...

[chris_fit]

Looks like another hot tower firing very close to the CoC

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/rlPdrdg.gif

Clearly see low level clouds rotating around circulation...

It looks like the 0Z/6Z Euro suites had her in about the right position as of hour 6 (12Z)...near 16.7N, 66W. The GFS was a bit too far W while the 0Z CMC too far NE.

[blp]

Definitely not heading North based on last three fixes. Maybe it might be rotating around the newer possible center further SW.

A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 10:58:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.21N 65.73W
B. Center Fix Location: 86 statute miles (138 km) to the SSE (165°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).

[chris_fit]

Recon might be flying through that brand new hot tower...

[tolakram]

live visible floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=922.8823852539062&y=962.9120788574219

[tolakram]

saved loop