ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Either Karen's not moving much, the LLC is running N of convection, or there is a LLC reformation S towards the convection...

[Blown Away]

looks like broad LLC still exposed on N side of convection...

[abajan]

Still nothing but a weak TS approaching PR, and it is likely a TS in name only. Recon hasn't found any convincing surface winds to TS strength. There's no clear sign of center reformation. Pressure is holding steady or even rising slightly. Max FL winds still 35 kts. I don't think wind will be the issue for any of the islands. Squalls moving in after the center moves north of PR could produce heavy rainfall and flooding, however. Possibly some wind gusts to 40-45 mph in those squalls later this afternoon and overnight.

http://wxman57.com/images/karen7.JPG

Could? I'm almost certain some parts of PR will get prolonged torrential rainfall resulting in tremendous flooding. But we'll see.

[GCANE]

Could be a weak rotation here

[Hurricaneman]

The eastern convection seems to be wrapping into the LLC which is a sign the shear has lowered, and this may have slowed down temporarily as this seem to be stacking up which means that sometime this evening or tonight we may have a more classic look

[Hurricaneman]

Could be a weak rotation here

https://i.imgur.com/lKnm74n.png

https://i.imgur.com/6Os0Wly.png

I also see a low level vortex to the WSW of that too closer to the convection if you look at the low level clouds on satellite so we may have 2 vortices that I can see

[chris_fit]

41kts FL Wind found FWIW

[SFLcane]

41kts FL Wind found FWIW

Yeah that supports 35kt surface.

[Fountainguy97]

Very interesting banding feature on the west side of the LLC. Watch as the deep blob creeps northward ever closer to the stalled LLC. Very interesting.

[wxman57]

Definitely not heading North based on last three fixes. Maybe it might be rotating around the newer possible center further SW.

A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 10:58:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.21N 65.73W
B. Center Fix Location: 86 statute miles (138 km) to the SSE (165°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).

You can't really use recon fixes for determining movement when the plane can barely find the broad, ill-defined center. Look at the overall movement of the squalls. Karen is still moving northward.

[StormLogic]

Starting to see potential rainfall threat for PR. Mudslides and flooding unfortunately

[ScottNAtlanta]

The frictional effects of PR ought to help this center tighten up a bit on approach

[HeeBGBz]

Puerto Rico had a 6.0 earthquake this am. Double whammy.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Puerto Rico had a 6.0 earthquake this am. Double whammy.

Thankfully they were both 65km offshore, but they certainly felt it, but there will be little if any damage.

[SFLcane]

Huge blow up.. we'll see if there are any pressure falls otherwise it is meaningless

[wxman57]

Obs across the islands suggest that Karen is closer to a tropical wave than a tropical storm. Looks like a trof axis cutting across PR:

[NDG]

The reformation further south is finally happening.

[NDG]

17.117N 65.917W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,560 meters
(~ 5,118 feet) 1006.9 mb
(~ 29.74 inHg)

[SFLcane]

First signs of center reformation..

[NDG]

No doubt now that Karen is a Tropical Storm.

160630 3000N 06815W 8430 01498 0024 +160 +113 238042 043 035 002 00
160700 3001N 06817W 8430 01497 0020 +165 +113 239041 042 036 001 00
160730 3002N 06818W 8432 01494 0018 +166 +112 238041 043 036 001 00
160800 3003N 06819W 8429 01494 0017 +163 +110 238044 044 035 001 00
160830 3004N 06820W 8429 01493 0018 +160 +109 234046 048 036 003 00
160900 3005N 06822W 8429 01494 0018 +156 +112 228045 046 037 000 00
160930 3007N 06823W 8429 01490 0015 +155 +114 228047 048 036 000 00
161000 3008N 06824W 8430 01487 0010 +159 +114 225045 047 036 001 00