ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[StormLogic]

That is absolutely the fastest spin up I have ever seen.

https://i.imgur.com/UDiyABf.png

4 hrs and 10 mins it spun up from being almost "dead jim"

[LarryWx]

Where recon found the new LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/MDkpvyy.gif

If the new center is confirmed to be down at 17.1N, 65.9W as of 16:35 Z, that would be like 100 miles SW of the 6Z Euro hour 6 and way south of the 12Z UKMET as it had her already all the way up to 17.8N way back at 12Z!

[sma10]

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 53 kts (61.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 kts (54.1 mph)

Cmon '57 - Just a bite of that crow!

Take a little pity, Chris

In all seriousness tho, he is paid to do this and has great accountability. I don't envy him having to forecast impacts on PR tonight or the next week or so either.

[otowntiger]

That is absolutely the fastest spin up I have ever seen.

https://i.imgur.com/UDiyABf.png

Wow. Is that really the center where that 'hole' is? I can't imagine it is. Need a few more frames to see, could just be an arbitrary break in the cloud pattern and not really a the center of circulation?

[sma10]

Where recon found the new LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/MDkpvyy.gif

If the new center is confirmed to be down at 17.1N, 65.9W as of 16:35 Z, that would be like 100 miles SW of the 6Z Euro hour 6 and way south of the 12Z UKMET as it had her already all the way up to 17.8N way back at 12Z!

Yeah I do not envy NHC right now, they take their job seriously and you can read it in Stewart's discussion this morning - these guys are going to have to do a LOT of nowcasting.

[GCANE]

Is that dark spot the new center?

That is where recon is heading

[Aric Dunn]

Just got back. Man the llc has exploded and relocated.

Crazy hownfast its happening now.

[galaxy401]

Looks like Karen took offense to the comments earlier this morning and is bombing out now. Right before it crosses Puerto Rico too...

[NDG]

Too bad the recon has not communicated the latest pass to confirm the new location of the LLC.

[northjaxpro]

Karen is definitely getting her act together this afternoon. As NDG mentioned, I am very concerned about convergence over the island of Puerto Rico, which could lead to major flooding concerns there.

[chris_fit]

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 53 kts (61.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 kts (54.1 mph)

Cmon '57 - Just a bite of that crow!

Take a little pity, Chris

In all seriousness tho, he is paid to do this and has great accountability. I don't envy him having to forecast impacts on PR tonight or the next week or so either.

WXMAN57 is one of the reasons I visit this forum. He is a wealth of knowledge and I thank him for sharing his vast array of knowledge on this stuff. My post was just a little poke/nudge just for shoots and giggles.

[GCANE]

That is absolutely the fastest spin up I have ever seen.

https://i.imgur.com/UDiyABf.png

Wow. Is that really the center where that 'hole' is? I can't imagine it is. Need a few more frames to see, could just be an arbitrary break in the cloud pattern and not really a the center of circulation?

Gotta be careful watching this. Cirrus outflow from towers could obscure it.

[rbaker55]

I like gators post he is even minded, doesn't right off systems like others do just because they run into buzzsaw shear at times. We have seen numerous times both sides of the coin, where systems go "poof" and others like "Dorian" and maybe now with "Karen" ramp up fast. One thing for sure the shear in 24 hours went down alot, most of it east of Karen because of outflow from Jerry.

[chris_fit]

Of course Recon has to have issues communicating now.... hopefully it's just communication and nothing serious

[sma10]

Also this has to make you at least question the near term (days 1 and 2) model runs. How does Karen behave the next 48 hrs if the system is vertically deep as opposed to a wispy wave?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I don’t know...I see recon which says Karen has intensified, but man, those surface obs from the workstation...

[SFLcane]

That is absolutely the fastest spin up I have ever seen.

https://i.imgur.com/UDiyABf.png

Wait what...is that a CDO developing i see?

[LarryWx]

Where recon found the new LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/MDkpvyy.gif

If the new center is confirmed to be down at 17.1N, 65.9W as of 16:35 Z, that would be like 100 miles SW of the 6Z Euro hour 6 and way south of the 12Z UKMET as it had her already all the way up to 17.8N way back at 12Z!

Yeah I do not envy NHC right now, they take their job seriously and you can read it in Stewart's discussion this morning - these guys are going to have to do a LOT of nowcasting.

I know I’m stating the obvious, but the modeling will be in more question than usual until a true center is confirmed and model initialization can be compared to that center.

[NDG]

C-Man station in St Croix reported TS Force winds last hour.

09 24 12:00 pm S 28.0 36.9 - - - - 29.84 +0.00 81.5 85.3

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=ltbv3

[chris_fit]

PR Radar - not saved - live view....

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes