ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#581 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:03 pm

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#582 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:We in PR dont view as key if there are 10+ centers but the most important hazard are the flooding rains that have begun with flooding reported and this rainy period will be here thru Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/qPZEUDS.jpg


Best of luck cycloneye. Flooding is always the worst effect of TCs and it seems PR is in for the worst of it.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#583 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:09 pm

Center is starting to bounce around the higher terrian. Moving north to nne then back to north then a bend nnw larer as it passes the island.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#584 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:16 pm

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#585 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:24 pm

Think I would place the center here...

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#586 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:28 pm

Image

Last Visible... Healthier convection compared to yesterday...
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#587 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:00 pm

...CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24
Location: 18.0°N 65.8°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#588 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:05 pm

Good ole physics..
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#589 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Good ole physics..


Is the center going to actually go around the island, avoiding any weakening ?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#590 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:13 pm

sma10 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Good ole physics..


Is the center going to actually go around the island, avoiding any weakening ?


Most likely. Should see a brief bend to the nw once it get passed pR
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#591 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:14 pm

Heaviest squalls look like they are headed for the east end of Puerto Rico.
The usual places will flood.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#592 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:16 pm

nhc saying shear will go up 120 hour will likely make KAREN weaker so this never see been hurr that good
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#593 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:29 pm

floridasun78 wrote:nhc saying shear will go up 120 hour will likely make KAREN weaker so this never see been hurr that good


Is really hard to forecast shear 5 days from now, it could go either way. The biggest hurdle by then could be dryer air rotating around Jerry into Karen.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#594 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Good ole physics..


Looks to have relocated again and is finally pretty aligned now. Will probably just Clip PR now
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#595 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:35 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
sma10 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Good ole physics..


Is the center going to actually go around the island, avoiding any weakening ?


Most likely. Should see a brief bend to the nw once it get passed pR



Wow. Are you SURE they aren't doing these things on purpose? :wink: I wonder what makes them do that.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#596 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:37 pm

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1176602150664691713


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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#597 Postby Ucfkid » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:41 pm

floridasun78 wrote:nhc saying shear will go up 120 hour will likely make KAREN weaker so this never see been hurr that good


My weah2 met said it will do a loop and go west but a cold front is expected to be here next Friday. He thinks it’s going to hit north Florida as just a rainmaker or td at best.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#598 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:44 pm

Looks LLC is now just south of the western tip Vieques.

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#599 Postby Frank2 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:49 pm

My weah2 met said it will do a loop and go west but a cold front is expected to be here next Friday. He thinks it’s going to hit north Florida as just a rainmaker or td at best.


Yes because the current very active west to east progression of weather systems is not favorable for landfalling hurricanes. A slowly changing summer pattern of subtropical highs is a hurricanes environment - and per the GFS northern snows are early this year. I have a friend in southern Alberta and snow is in the forecast for Friday and Saturday...
Last edited by Frank2 on Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:52 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#600 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:49 pm

NDG wrote:Looks LLC is now just south of the western tip Vieques.

https://i.imgur.com/Gm4N5JL.gif


Yep the LLC will mostly miss Puerto Rico now
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