ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Kazmit]

I kind of expected the strengthening trend to end while it passed Puerto Rico but since it will have less land interaction it definitely could continue.

[NDG]

18.283N 65.300W
1002.8 mb
(~ 29.62 inHg)

[ColdMiser123]

The 53 KT FL wind at 850 hPa recon found earlier was just SE of the center. Recon once again flying at 850 hPa, so we will have an accurate comparison to see if any pressure falls have resulted in any increases in wind speed, once recon samples the SE quadrant.

[northjaxpro]

Recon finds the center just northeast of Vieques. Assuming no center wobbles, likely will miss official landfall in Puerto Rico just to the east, like Dorian.

Unlike Dorian, likely significantly worse impacts from rain across the mainland, and very unfortunate timing as well after a 6.0 earthquake.

Exactly. They just had that earthquake on yesterday. Just terrible for everyone in Puerto Rico and they will be dealng with flooding and my prayers to all down there .

[wxman57]

Still not much wind reported across the area north and east of the center. Strongest winds will follow the center passage. St. Croix reported a max sustained wind of 20 kts with a gust to 32 kts. Surface winds appear to be way below FL winds.

[USVIKimmie]

Still not much wind reported across the area north and east of the center. Strongest winds will follow the center passage. St. Croix reported a max sustained wind of 20 kts with a gust to 32 kts. Surface winds appear to be way below FL winds.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen10.JPG

I’m down in a hole on the east end of St Thomas, and it’s good steady winds and a friend has has gusts at least 40 up her hill. It’s just starting here. Other locals have reported 5ft waves in Cruz Bay St John

Edited to add: at least 20kts with higher gusts.

[Aric Dunn]

a KINK in the convection on radar NW of San juan just formed and San juan winds just switched the wsw. .... interesting next couple hours coming.

[northjaxpro]

Still not much wind reported across the area north and east of the center. Strongest winds will follow the center passage. St. Croix reported a max sustained wind of 20 kts with a gust to 32 kts. Surface winds appear to be way below FL winds.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen10.JPG

I’m down in a hole on the east end of St Thomas, and it’s good steady winds and a friend has has gusts at least 40 up her hill. It’s just starting here. Other locals have reported 5ft waves in Cruz Bay St John

Edited to add: at least 20kts with higher gusts.

Thank you for proviiding us a status report from Saint Thomas. Please be safe and take care down there!!!

[Aric Dunn]

And there it is.. the center reform to the north side of PR.

[aperson]

And there it is.. the center reform to the north side of PR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF300-0612A-KAREN.png

Associated radar with the circ visible near 19N 66W

[Hurricaneman]

This could continue to organize so I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes a hurricane where models have it a weak low, what would be the track implications if it’s much stronger than modeled

[USVIKimmie]

Still not much wind reported across the area north and east of the center. Strongest winds will follow the center passage. St. Croix reported a max sustained wind of 20 kts with a gust to 32 kts. Surface winds appear to be way below FL winds.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen10.JPG

I’m down in a hole on the east end of St Thomas, and it’s good steady winds and a friend has has gusts at least 40 up her hill. It’s just starting here. Other locals have reported 5ft waves in Cruz Bay St John

Edited to add: at least 20kts with higher gusts.

Thank you for proviiding us a status report from Saint Thomas. Please be safe and take care down there!!!

I’ve been off my boat since last night. Went through the “oh crap!” Of Dorian’s Hurricane genesis here on board. I’ve got many friends who send me updates on their locations - throughout the islands. Many on St John haven’t been experiencing much wind at all. Yet.

I’m not going to venture out much, other than onto the porch here. Will try to get info as long as cell coverage stays consistent.

[Kazmit]

This could continue to organize so I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes a hurricane where models have it a weak low, what would be the track implications if it’s much stronger than modeled

I don't understand why the GFS fails to make this more than a weak low run after run. NHC has it getting to 70mph so I think a hurricane is certainly possible.

[Frank2]

Here's the 8 p.m. what is suprising is the direction - 045 - so NE and that is forecast to continue for tonight and then a NNE track tomorrow.

The good news is it means a lessening chance of it moving towards the Bahamas and the US because any turn will be started further east, had the system tracked NNW or NW (just my opinion).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2342.shtml?

[chaser1]

Still not much wind reported across the area north and east of the center. Strongest winds will follow the center passage. St. Croix reported a max sustained wind of 20 kts with a gust to 32 kts. Surface winds appear to be way below FL winds.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen10.JPG

I’m down in a hole on the east end of St Thomas, and it’s good steady winds and a friend has has gusts at least 40 up her hill. It’s just starting here. Other locals have reported 5ft waves in Cruz Bay St John

Edited to add: at least 20kts with higher gusts.

I guess that sounds about right. "Island blustery" lol; just hope you dont have to contend with any flooding rains down there. Any way you slice it though, i'd rather be down there in the islands then here

[NDG]

Like somebody earlier mentioned, unlike Dorian, P.R. is getting some heavy rains out of this one.

[chaser1]

This could continue to organize so I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes a hurricane where models have it a weak low, what would be the track implications if it’s much stronger than modeled

Yeah, seems to me that the GFS has ofter been behind the 8-ball
this year with regards to anticipating strengthening trends. I've often felt that the EURO was under aggressive with many systems but not so much lately

[HDGator]

Here's the 8 p.m. what is suprising is the direction - 045 - so NE and that is forecast to continue for tonight and then a NNE track tomorrow.

The good news is it means a lessening chance of it moving towards the Bahamas and the US because any turn will be started further east, had the system tracked NNW or NW (just my opinion).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2342.shtml?

No, the movement from NHC is forecast NNE tonight not NE at 045. No change from 5pm forecast discussion.
Check the 8pm update discussion:

However, Karen should move toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed tonight, with
this motion continuing through Wednesday night.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/242342.shtml

[AJC3]

Here's the 8 p.m. what is suprising is the direction - 045 - so NE and that is forecast to continue for tonight and then a NNE track tomorrow.

The good news is it means a lessening chance of it moving towards the Bahamas and the US because any turn will be started further east, had the system tracked NNW or NW (just my opinion).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2342.shtml?

That jump to the NE over Vieques was convectively and orogaphically induced. Mean steering winds are pushing the center a little east of due north, certainly not toward 045/NE.
I fully expect the next center fixes will trend back northward, and I wouldn't be surprised if it actually gained a tenth or two in longitude on a fix or two.

[rbaker55]

Still not much wind reported across the area north and east of the center. Strongest winds will follow the center passage. St. Croix reported a max sustained wind of 20 kts with a gust to 32 kts. Surface winds appear to be way below FL winds.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen10.JPG

ole gloomy wx 57 a little better then that
st thomas
24 20:11 SW 32 G 41 6.00 Fog/Mist and Windy SCT013 BKN019 OVC028 81 77 88% NA 88 29.76 NA
24 19:53 SW 30 G 40 6.00 Fog/Mist and Windy BKN011 BKN021 OVC028 81 77 89% NA 88 29.75 NA
24 19:01 S 32 G 41 4.00 Light Rain Fog/Mist and Windy BKN013 OVC028 81 77