ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Highteeld]

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (29.62 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 24.4°C (76°F) 235° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
1000mb 29m (95 ft) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 24.4°C (76°F) 230° (from the SW) 13 knots (15 mph)
925mb 717m (2,352 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 20.5°C (69°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level
850mb 1,455m (4,774 ft) 21.2°C (70.2°F) About 16°C (61°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level

[StruThiO]

interesting look

[jlauderdal]

Still not much wind reported across the area north and east of the center. Strongest winds will follow the center passage. St. Croix reported a max sustained wind of 20 kts with a gust to 32 kts. Surface winds appear to be way below FL winds.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen10.JPG

ole gloomy wx 57 a little better then that
st thomas
24 20:11 SW 32 G 41 6.00 Fog/Mist and Windy SCT013 BKN019 OVC028 81 77 88% NA 88 29.76 NA
24 19:53 SW 30 G 40 6.00 Fog/Mist and Windy BKN011 BKN021 OVC028 81 77 89% NA 88 29.75 NA
24 19:01 S 32 G 41 4.00 Light Rain Fog/Mist and Windy BKN013 OVC028 81 77

Give wxman57 a break...working nonstop since august, another week at least, he needs this system to die

[HDGator]

interesting look

https://i.imgur.com/rqf33hn.jpg

It's looking like that center will emerge/relocate just north of San Juan where Aric was pointing to earlier.
Radar seems to be pointing to the same.

[HDGator]

Some really heavy precipitation is starting to fire on the north side of PR on radar!!!

[Hurricane Jed]

Aric has a great handle on atmospheric physics

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1176660724740972545

[toad strangler]

Still not much wind reported across the area north and east of the center. Strongest winds will follow the center passage. St. Croix reported a max sustained wind of 20 kts with a gust to 32 kts. Surface winds appear to be way below FL winds.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen10.JPG

ole gloomy wx 57 a little better then that
st thomas
24 20:11 SW 32 G 41 6.00 Fog/Mist and Windy SCT013 BKN019 OVC028 81 77 88% NA 88 29.76 NA
24 19:53 SW 30 G 40 6.00 Fog/Mist and Windy BKN011 BKN021 OVC028 81 77 89% NA 88 29.75 NA
24 19:01 S 32 G 41 4.00 Light Rain Fog/Mist and Windy BKN013 OVC028 81 77

Give wxman57 a break...working nonstop since august, another week at least, he needs this system to die

I’ve been working non stop since 1990. And isn’t this a go time of year for a met? Like tax season for an accountant? lol

[aperson]

View from the top:


View from the middle:


The low-level circulation has finished skirting around the E side and is lining back up with the mid-level circulation that wasn't as affected by terrain. Tons of lightning going up from the torque where they are aligning and grinding against the coast. We'll see how much of the remaining circulation it can pull across from the S side and how much gets cut off and lost.

[sma10]

What exactly is going on now? There's an explosive ball of convection on the NW coast - surely the center hasn't reformed THAT far NW?

[aperson]

What exactly is going on now? There's an explosive ball of convection on the NW coast - surely the center hasn't reformed THAT far NW?

It will be consolidating in that direction but it won't be all the way over to that spot. Think of it like the sharp corner that it is tugging toward.

[aperson]

Has anyone been watching obs on PR? This seems like a major flooding event.

[HDGator]

Has anyone been watching obs on PR? This seems like a major flooding event.

They have 6+ hours of torrential rain left based on the current movement and it looks pretty bad so far.
We probably won't hear much until tomorrow morning but my prayers go out to those in PR. They're in for a rough night of heavy rain from this storm.
I don't think the infrastructure has been much repaired since Maria.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176669533513428994

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty clear the new circ is coming together. old circ has no convection and will die..

[rbaker55]

Still not much wind reported across the area north and east of the center. Strongest winds will follow the center passage. St. Croix reported a max sustained wind of 20 kts with a gust to 32 kts. Surface winds appear to be way below FL winds.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen10.JPG

ole gloomy wx 57 a little better then that
st thomas
24 20:11 SW 32 G 41 6.00 Fog/Mist and Windy SCT013 BKN019 OVC028 81 77 88% NA 88 29.76 NA
24 19:53 SW 30 G 40 6.00 Fog/Mist and Windy BKN011 BKN021 OVC028 81 77 89% NA 88 29.75 NA
24 19:01 S 32 G 41 4.00 Light Rain Fog/Mist and Windy BKN013 OVC028 81 77

Give wxman57 a break...working nonstop since august, another week at least, he needs this system to die[/quote


just reporting how it is with wx obs

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176669533513428994

Indeed but might a new center be reforming under the MLC where the deep convection blowup is at?

Looks possible to me.

[sma10]

Pretty clear the new circ is coming together. old circ has no convection and will die..


https://i.ibb.co/QkFy0xb/14.gif

Is it your position that ultimately we should be tracking the mid level center currently exiting PR as opposed to the low level center that's already out in the Atlantic?

I ask because won't the 0z models most likely be initialized with the much further NE center?

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty clear the new circ is coming together. old circ has no convection and will die..


https://i.ibb.co/QkFy0xb/14.gif

Is it your position that ultimately we should be tracking the mid level center currently exiting PR as opposed to the low level center that's already out in the Atlantic?

I ask because won't the 0z models most likely be initialized with the much further NE center?

its not just in the mid levels. surface obs ( in the loop ) and earlier recon pass showed it developing..

it is just becoming more defined deeper in the atmosphere. low levle and mid level convergence as well.

yeah models are going to be all wacky until probably at least 6z or 12z

[HurricaneFrances04]

View from the middle:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/625168189587980289/626222700909690890/radarloop_3.gif

The low-level circulation has finished skirting around the E side and is lining back up with the mid-level circulation that wasn't as affected by terrain. Tons of lightning going up from the torque where they are aligning and grinding against the coast. We'll see how much of the remaining circulation it can pull across from the S side and how much gets cut off and lost.

You can see some circulation (the LLC mentioned by Levi) shoot off to the NE in that radar loop.