ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Sure does appear the large convection blowup is becoming the dominant circulation or Karen is much more unorganized tonight...

[HurricaneFrances04]

Great discussion by Avila. He too mentions a possible center reformation to the west, along the trough north of Puerto Rico.

[tropicwatch]

Based on recon, it does appear that the center is reforming just north of San Juan.

[psyclone]

To what extent, if at all, is the large detached convective band east and southeast of the system, robbing from or otherwise hindering the system?

[galaxy401]

I don't think there is a single forecast from the models that has Karen dying over Puerto Rico.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Based on recon, it does appear that the center is reforming just north of San Juan.
http://tropicwatch.info/Karen092420192140central.jpg

Yea, pressures are quickly rising in the old CoC.

[rbaker55]

radar, satellite and surface obs seem to confirm that a new center is west of the old one. Doesn't look like a NNE movement either, more like NNW

[chaser1]

To what extent, if at all, is the large detached convective band east and southeast of the system, robbing from or otherwise hindering the system?

Great question If in a less sheared environment, i'd swear that feature was soon to be enveloped by Karen and essentially morph into a feeder band. I'm stumpted.

[psyclone]

To what extent, if at all, is the large detached convective band east and southeast of the system, robbing from or otherwise hindering the system?

Great question If in a less sheared environment, i'd swear that feature was soon to be enveloped by Karen and essentially morph into a feeder band. I'm stumpted.

It appears to be flying off to the north northeast....away from Karen. The general satellite view is a chaotic mess around the storm..

[Blown Away]

Based on recon, it does appear that the center is reforming just north of San Juan.
http://tropicwatch.info/Karen092420192140central.jpg

Based on this map, if LLC reforms just N of San Juan it would be @70 mile W shift... I continue to believe if Karen stays on the W side of the track cone the conditions may be better for strengthening...

[tropicwatch]

HH coming around again. Might get a confirmation on the reformation when they get there.

[HDGator]

Well, sat image shows that she's getting her act back together. CDO is pretty strong for now.

[sma10]

Well, sat image shows that she's getting her act back together. CDO is pretty strong for now.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/437928/09252019-0351_JPG-1101911.jpg

Has it been confirmed tho that is the new center?

[HDGator]

Well, sat image shows that she's getting her act back together. CDO is pretty strong for now.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/437928/09252019-0351_JPG-1101911.jpg

Has it been confirmed tho that is the new center?

Looking at current radar, I'd say the dominant circulation is just north of San Juan. But it's not very organized right now.

[chaser1]

Oddly quiet in here considering the circumstances. Tropical burn-out perhaps ? I'd like to see the Google Adsense Bot weigh in on the discussion

[tropicwatch]

Well, sat image shows that she's getting her act back together. CDO is pretty strong for now.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/437928/09252019-0351_JPG-1101911.jpg

Has it been confirmed tho that is the new center?

Waiting to see where they put the next VDM.

[psyclone]

That infrared makes it look better than radar shows. it doesn't look well but there is clear rotation so...always potential for more development later if conditions improve. In the near term definitely a rain threat for PR...orographic lift is an enormous enhancer of rainfall..

[aperson]

looks to me like the old LLC is giving out and starting to roll in toward the western circulation



Recon does indicate a tiny surface MSLP depression, so whatever is over there has likely worked to the surface at least a little bit

[AJC3]

It's pretty clear that a second LLC has been trying to form north of central PR. If that one doesn't take over as a new center per se, then what I thnk will happen is that these two vort centers will show a loose binary motion about a central point between them, and then congeal somewhere in between, while the whole mess moves on a heading between N and NNE. This was my thinking when I mentioned last evening that the next few center fixes would go north and possibly a little west of due north.

[sma10]

It's pretty clear that a second LLC has been trying to form north of central PR. If that one doesn't take over as a new center per se, then what I thnk will happen is that these two vort centers will show a loose binary motion about a central point between them, and then congeal somewhere in between, while the whole mess moves on a heading between N and NNE. This was my thinking when I mentioned last evening that the next few center fixes would go north and possibly a little west of due north.

Would there be any real lasting consequence between those two potential outcomes?