2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
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- StruThiO
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Above Average is starting to look nearly guaranteed IMO..
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
StruThiO wrote:Above Average is starting to look nearly guaranteed IMO..
Signs of an epic W Caribbean October to boot
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
StruThiO wrote:Above Average is starting to look nearly guaranteed IMO..
The NOAA definition of an above average season requires at least 111 ACE, with at least two of the parameters exceeded (12 NS, 6 H, and 2 MH). It's likely Lorenzo will become a major hurricane and we'll probably see at least 1 more named storm, so barring a very quiet October/November, we should reach this. There has not once been four consecutive above average seasons in the Atlantic basin by the NOAA definition, though 1998-2001 came extremely close. It's likely that the Atlantic has 15+ NS this season for the fourth straight year, something that also has never happened in the historical record. I think we have enough evidence now the Atlantic active era has not ended.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
StruThiO wrote:Above Average is starting to look nearly guaranteed IMO..
It’s been an ongoing question in this thread the last month plus. While Dorian was coming into the picture we started wondering. That was going to be a big and important storm. Maybe we were setting up for at least an average season with a shot at more. As we have been looking at the season get to 60, 70 and now 80 ACE, the chances were going up that we might just get to above average. Looks like a no brainer call now. So you wonder how high can ACE get? 110? 120? 130? More? And were at 12 named storms. You know there will be at least 3-4 more. I don’t know where we will end up, but 2019 is already memorable and compares favorably to averages.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
CyclonicFury wrote:StruThiO wrote:Above Average is starting to look nearly guaranteed IMO..
The NOAA definition of an above average season requires at least 111 ACE, with at least two of the parameters exceeded (12 NS, 6 H, and 2 MH). It's likely Lorenzo will become a major hurricane and we'll probably see at least 1 more named storm, so barring a very quiet October/November, we should reach this. There has not once been four consecutive above average seasons in the Atlantic basin by the NOAA definition, though 1998-2001 came extremely close. It's likely that the Atlantic has 15+ NS this season for the fourth straight year, something that also has never happened in the historical record. I think we have enough evidence now the Atlantic active era has not ended.
Until next year, when the season cancel posts start up again. (Sorry, I couldn't resist.)
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- galaxy401
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Feels like recent hurricane seasons have been more loaded in September. It's seems obvious given that it is the most active month but the average hurricane season is more spread out in August and September. The last three Septembers had very high levels of activity.
2017: 4 named storms formed but that month saw two Category 5 and two other major hurricanes. ACE was record levels that September.
2018: 7 named storms formed this month. This came after a very quiet August.
2019: 7 named storms so far. This also came after a quiet August. Dorian became a Category 5 in September.
2017: 4 named storms formed but that month saw two Category 5 and two other major hurricanes. ACE was record levels that September.
2018: 7 named storms formed this month. This came after a very quiet August.
2019: 7 named storms so far. This also came after a quiet August. Dorian became a Category 5 in September.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
galaxy401 wrote:Feels like recent hurricane seasons have been more loaded in September. It's seems obvious given that it is the most active month but the average hurricane season is more spread out in August and September. The last three Septembers had very high levels of activity.
2017: 4 named storms formed but that month saw two Category 5 and two other major hurricanes. ACE was record levels that September.
2018: 7 named storms formed this month. This came after a very quiet August.
2019: 7 named storms so far. This also came after a quiet August. Dorian became a Category 5 in September.
That's a contrast from 2012-2016, which saw very low ACE in September. Octobers have been mostly active this decade but not in the way of typical NW Caribbean hurricanes. I'm interested to see how active October is considering the MJO is likely to turn less favorable in the middle of the month.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Lorenzo has become the third major hurricane of the season over the MDR. It is only the fourth MDR storm to reach major hurricane intensity since 2011, with the others being Danny, Irma and Maria.
It's a strong possibility the season could end with 4 or perhaps even 5 major hurricanes, though I would say 5 is unlikely. Above average ACE is nearly a lock IMO.
It's a strong possibility the season could end with 4 or perhaps even 5 major hurricanes, though I would say 5 is unlikely. Above average ACE is nearly a lock IMO.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
With Lorenzo forecasted to remain a MH through at least the next 4 days, it will be a nice ACE producer for the Atlantic, to bring it well over the 100th mark, not bad for the forecasted average to below average season by many experts at the beginning of the season. This decade has been mostly about many busted forecasts, including 2013.
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- StruThiO
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
We are going to pass 90 ACE today. Lorenzo is forecast to remain a major hurricane for 4 more days. We should be well ahead the average in terms of major hurricane days. Looks like the AMO is still positive, to me
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Dorian and Lorenzo are broke records this year but so far the CONUS has escaped. The big risk / question mark has always been October. Will we get that whopper storm that could threaten the CONUS? October is the month South Florida gets hit by TCs than any other month.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:55 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Whatever forms near Africa should get the boot up poleward it would seem, so no worries about a long MDR trecker.
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- StruThiO
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Caribbean has been very very warm. I know it gets said every year, but I can't help but at the prospects of October development this yr
at the OHC
at the OHC
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- galaxy401
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Considering how often it's bought up that the West Caribbean is very hot, it's made more surprising how infrequent we seem to get hurricanes in that region especially in recent years. Most activity we see there are storms that form in that region and move into the Gulf of Mexico (such as Michael). The last time we got a strong hurricane in that area was Rina in 2011.
I'm guessing the El Nino cycle we have been in since 2014 has shutdown that region for development.
I'm guessing the El Nino cycle we have been in since 2014 has shutdown that region for development.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- StruThiO
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
galaxy401 wrote:I'm guessing the El Nino cycle we have been in since 2014 has shutdown that region for development.
The Pacific has definitely been broadly +PDO and +PMM since 2014. Perhaps that's contributing?
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
StruThiO wrote:Caribbean has been very very warm. I know it gets said every year, but I can't help but at the prospects of October development this yr
https://i.imgur.com/2cE0Edf.png
https://i.imgur.com/LJrGu5d.png
https://i.imgur.com/VfoutpY.png
at the OHC
https://i.imgur.com/weVmfFo.png
Suddath tweet is 10 days old but fits
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1174100655369281538
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