ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Astromanía]

Something for sure, Lorenzo will be a better looking cyclone compared to Dorian , it will become one of the most beautiful hurricanes in ATL in all its expected life

Will I become annular or somethin'?

You better do it I'm rooting for you!

[DioBrando]

Something for sure, Lorenzo will be a better looking cyclone compared to Dorian , it will become one of the most beautiful hurricanes in ATL in all its expected life

Will I become annular or somethin'?

You better do it I'm rooting for you!

I'm gonna be a supermodel hurricane

[Ken711]

Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
·
20h
Lorenzo will remain far out in the Atlantic but will likely become a major hurricane. There is some potential for Category 5 intensity depending upon its ability to rapidly intensify.

Model central pressures of < 930 mb are consistent with Category 4+

No threat to land.

[TallyTracker]

Lorenzo is massive! It covers close to 1/3 of the width of the Atlantic MDR between the Lesser Antilles and Africa!

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TXNT26 KNES 251222
TCSNTL

A. 13L (LORENZO)

B. 25/1200Z

C. 13.9N

D. 34.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE EMBEDDED IN B RESULTING IN A
DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT ARE 4.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[KWT]

The odds of any system this far east beocming a cat-5 are utterly tiny, even one with a decent set-up aloft. I think there may have been just 1 even within a 1000 miles of this.

With that being said, clearly going to be a powerful hurricane, I'd guess something like 120-125kts would be where I'd go for. There is some pretty warm waters north of 20N which Lorenzo will move into (a solid 28c area that Lorenzo will tap into for a solid 24-36hrs), so could be lasting quite some time in that 110-130ks type range.

But beating Dorian...no chance...that was one of the most impressive N.Atlantic hurricanes ever and was probably 2hrs from going sub 900mbs...Lorenzo could only dream of going quite that low!

[Kazmit]

Looking like a WPac typhoon this morning.

[CyclonicFury]

Chances of Lorenzo passing Dorian in intensity are extremely low. Lorenzo will likely never get into recon range, so NHC will have to use Dvorak estimates for intensity. In addition, SSTs in Lorenzo's path are cooler than Dorian had. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of Lorenzo reaching a low-end Category 5, but I think a Category 3/4 peak is far more likely.

[TallyTracker]

Cat 5 hurricanes are rare enough in the hot bath waters of the Caribbean, Gulf, and west Atlantic. Lorenzo is highly unlikely to reach that kind of intensity. As Hurricanes Julia and Fred showed a few years ago, Category 4 is possible. That’s the max I think is even really probable. A Cat 5 in the east Atlantic would require perfect conditions and an insanely unstable atmosphere. Conditions just don’t appear to be that good.

[Chris90]

I'm pretty sure 1900hurricane mentioned it earlier in the thread, but I believe Isabel is the only storm in the ATL that achieved Cat 5 purely on satellite estimates. It's highly doubtful that Lorenzo will achieve that, and extremely unlikely that he will beat Dorian. Dorian's eyewall dropsondes were ridiculous, plus the fact that he produced several 170kt+ SFMR values, and his satellite presentation was off the charts. It looked like a kid dropped a fidget spinner in the Atlantic with how fast Dorian was spinning. Plus, his microwave presentation was off the charts as well. It's not often a storm like that shows up in any basin.

I do believe however that Lorenzo could produce a satellite signature worthy of 135kts from the NHC though. It's just they rarely go 140 without recon.

[somethingfunny]

I'm pretty sure 1900hurricane mentioned it earlier in the thread, but I believe Isabel is the only storm in the ATL that achieved Cat 5 purely on satellite estimates. It's highly doubtful that Lorenzo will achieve that, and extremely unlikely that he will beat Dorian. Dorian's eyewall dropsondes were ridiculous, plus the fact that he produced several 170kt+ SFMR values, and his satellite presentation was off the charts. It looked like a kid dropped a fidget spinner in the Atlantic with how fast Dorian was spinning. Plus, his microwave presentation was off the charts as well. It's not often a storm like that shows up in any basin.

I do believe however that Lorenzo could produce a satellite signature worthy of 135kts from the NHC though. It's just they rarely go 140 without recon.

Sometimes not even with recon

[1900hurricane]

I think Lorenzo's large footprint managed to pull some dry air originating from the north into the circulation, preventing rapid intensification in the near term by really hampering the west side in particular. Before that dry air got ingested though, it was ready to go.

[wx98]

...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 14.1°N 35.1°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

[Buck]

Looking good this morning!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lorenzo reminds me a lot of Igor in 2010, to be honest.

[Nimbus]

Models still showing an early recurve so Lorenzo is free to be all he can be.

[cycloneye]

NOAA will fly Gonzo and two more planes to do research on Lorenzo.

 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1176899997553479680

[1900hurricane]

Best news I've heard today!

[StruThiO]

Those missions are exclusively upper-level right?

[cycloneye]

Those missions are exclusively upper-level right?

Yes,upper.