ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Sounds like the NHC is not sure it will survive the next few days of hostile conditions. All indications seem to point to it being exposed to less than ideal conditions pretty much thru the forecast period and beyond.

[norva13x]

Sounds like the NHC is not sure it will survive the next few days of hostile conditions. All indications seem to point to it being exposed to less than ideal conditions pretty much thru the forecast period and beyond.

I mean, from the discussion and official forecast they still expect modest strengthening, just not very much.

[GCANE]

Looks like the ULL came earlier than forecast a few days ago.
It will be moving west away from Karen for a few days allowing Karen to intensify before Karen starts making the track to the west.
At that time the ULL will track NE leaving a PV Streamer behind thru the western Bahamas and into the Florida Strait.
Looks that will be enough to shred Karen as she tries to enter the GOM.
Euro and GFS both agree.

Karen is quite vigorous.
Saw a number of very large convective bursts with intermittant warm cores that lasted a couple hours yesterday and into this morning.
This was evidenced by holes / donuts seen on IR and rain-rate imagery.
If it wasn't for the fact that the vorts were so drastically tilted, I am convinced Karen would have developed very quickly into a cane.

[wxman57]

Quite a bit of shear this morning. Karen looks quite a bit less organized this morning. On the verge of being ripped apart. Not sure what Stewart is seeing.

[jlauderdal]

Quite a bit of shear this morning. Karen looks quite a bit less organized this morning. On the verge of being ripped apart. Not sure what Stewart is seeing.

He sees at least 7 days in a row of work for you, at least...no doubt stewart is as bullish as they come, karen seems to have a very rough road ahead, looking unlikely this turns out to be much for the usa...anything cooking in the sw carib?

[South Texas Storms]

Quite a bit of shear this morning. Karen looks quite a bit less organized this morning. On the verge of being ripped apart. Not sure what Stewart is seeing.

He sees at least 7 days in a row of work for you, at least...no doubt stewart is as bullish as they come, karen seems to have a very rough road ahead, looking unlikely this turns out to be much for the usa...anything cooking in the sw carib?

Let's hope not...wxman57 could really use a few days off!

I'm not seeing much in the way of any activity in the southwest Caribbean at least through the next week. Maybe something will get going down there in a few weeks.

[jlauderdal]

Quite a bit of shear this morning. Karen looks quite a bit less organized this morning. On the verge of being ripped apart. Not sure what Stewart is seeing.

He sees at least 7 days in a row of work for you, at least...no doubt stewart is as bullish as they come, karen seems to have a very rough road ahead, looking unlikely this turns out to be much for the usa...anything cooking in the sw carib?

Let's hope not...wxman57 could really use a few days off!

I'm not seeing much in the way of any activity in the southwest Caribbean at least through the next week. Maybe something will get going down there in a few weeks.

57 has so much comp time he will be able to take 6 weeks off around the holidays, lets hope there are no blizzards.

Karen certainly not very impressive on radar this morning

[Weatherboy1]

I can't help but have Jeanne (2004) flashbacks here. Track looks familiar for one (though a bit farther east with the forecasted loop/turn). But so does all the talk about dry air potentially keeping Karen in check. I remember WV loops of Jeanne back in 2004 and she was surrounded by dry air. Yet she still managed to hold together and make landfall as a Cat 3 just north of me in Palm Beach County. It's WAY too early to say whether Karen will also be a FL threat. But in the last 24-36 hours, the modelling has coalesced around the "sharp left turn" scenario, with almost all the major models showing some form of that. We also know that the globals don't do very well with longer-term intensity forecasts, or at least haven't of late. Soooooo just assuming Karen will be a sheared mess/ripped apart wave at day 6-7 seems like a stretch. My $0.02

[Ken711]

[tropicwatch]

I noticed the TVCN extends into the central Bahamas. That seems kind of new.

[wxman57]

57 has so much comp time he will be able to take 6 weeks off around the holidays, lets hope there are no blizzards.

Karen certainly not very impressive on radar this morning

I don't like taking days off when it's too cold to bike (below 80F). I'm thinking Karen isn't going to survive much longer. Karen's remnants may reach the Bahamas next week, if we can still identify them.

[tropicwatch]

Karen appears to be under some pretty good conditions right now. Might see some strengthening today.

[rbaker55]

that upper low to the west of Karen is stationary at the moment, is gilding Karen to the north. Huge mass of dry air is moving east from FL and I wonder what effect if any that will have on Karen. For sure not the most optimum for strengthening, but NHC seems to think Karen will fight this off. No problem with SST's

[xironman]

Obviously north 41043

09/25 7:30am SSW 27.2 33.0

So it has moved quite a bit since 6z

[Nuno]

57 has so much comp time he will be able to take 6 weeks off around the holidays, lets hope there are no blizzards.

Karen certainly not very impressive on radar this morning

I'm thinking Karen isn't going to survive much longer. Karen's remnants may reach the Bahamas next week, if we can still identify them.

You've been persistent in calling for Karen's imminent demise yet she continues to defy it. The NHC doesn't think she will deteriorate in the near future.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking at the WV, there is an upper level low W of Karen, slowly moving W. Karen is under a growing upper level high. Conditions look favorable for strengthening the next 36 hours or so, as the UL drops WSW, and Karen moves N under a growing anti cyclone. However, there is no global model support for strengthening, which has been very typical this year, and often incorrect. How Karen develops today will affect her motion. The 0Z Euro ensembles suggest that the stronger members turn left sooner, or spend less time looping.

[wxman57]

The NHC isn't believing the dynamic models for their intensity forecast, they are using statistical models. I'm believing the dynamic models, and I don't think Karen's winds are 45 kts this morning. It may not even have any TS winds. The buoy in the image below has been going through the worst Karen could dish out and winds haven't reached 30 kts yet. The NHC forecast track looks pretty good, but I think it'll be a depression or a remnant low by day 5.

[Aric Dunn]

Karen is looking quite good this morning.. Outflow is improving convection is increasing. If there is only one center then nothing stoping it from deepening for the next 48 hours. Could easily see a hurricane in this case.

[tropicwatch]

Karen is looking quite good this morning.. Outflow is improving convection is increasing. If there is only one center then nothing stoping it from deepening for the next 48 hours. Could easily see a hurricane in this case.

HH is scheduled to take off at 11:30 central time. Hopefully it will have a better defined center to work with than earlier this morning.

[LarryWx]

Lol, can there possibly be more disagreement between 2 posts just 9 minutes apart?