ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[boca]

The ULL is pulling Karen apart right now she might be a depression at this point.

[wxman57]

Appears to be a 30kt poorly-organized TD. That SFMR wind of 34 kts with a FL wind of 25 kts is flagged. This is not a TS. I have it dissipating east of Bahamas next week, if it makes it past the next 24 hours...

[jlauderdal]

We are all focused on Karen but the real US threat may be coming from the Western Caribbean in early October which is more in line with climo. See models thread.

yep, Floridians shouldn't forget about the talkin tropics thread, oct 1 right around the corner...season over for the Texans, see you next summer

I hope so but still seeing chatter about some heavy thunderstorms and waiting for my roof to be fixed. Dorian really was a nail biter and Karen needs to hurry on out.

Houstonians have had more than their fair share of tropical trouble with flooding rains, everyone there deserves at least a 10-year break.

[abajan]

On the last three forecast points (the westward trend), the NHC doesn't show the time and day. Why is that?

I was wondering about this myself. May have been just an oversight.

[psyclone]

This system has been on life support since it's genesis. basically a complete joke of a ts. I wish it would come to florida in it's current state to provide some (now needed) rainfall. But I don't expect that either. I can't be the only one impatiently awaiting a "final advisory". I'm reminded of Seinfeld...just take one dip and end it!

[Craters]

:uarrow: Lol, can there possibly be more disagreement between 2 posts just 9 minutes apart?

I know right?!! How can two reliable people on this forum see two entirely different things?

And that, folks, in a nutshell, is how science works.

[GCANE]

The "stealing" of high TPW air from Karen is forecast to continue until about late Friday night.
Convergent flow into Karen should kick in then according to GFS.

[GCANE]

At this point the ULL is far enough away from Karen and there is a nice PV ring to allow intensification.

[wxman57]

EC & GFS have Karen weakening beyond Saturday. Remnant low early next week. I believe my eyes and the dynamic models for its intensity forecast. Look for the NHC to slowly give up on the idea of a 55kt TS at 120 hrs. Not every TS is going to become a major hurricane...

[GCANE]

Trouble is as Karen moves west, the ULL will move NE, leaving a PV Streamer; and simultaneously the Jet Stream (Rossby Wave) will push down.
This creates a large area of upper-level vorticity that if they are close enough interacts with the vort column of Karen.
They then start dancing around each other and Karen's vort column gets severely tilted.
Karen is forecast to be weakened by this close interaction and eventually slide under the PVS where it should get shredded.
One thing to watch are how deep the Rossby Wave drops. If it is far enough away, Karen won't be weakened as much.
If it stays strong, it could slide under the PVS without too much damage and may restrengthen in the GOM.
Models change day-by-day so its something to monitor closely in the next few days.

[GCANE]

Actually, that TPW forecast is low-level air.
So, there will be low-level dry air just to the west of Karen's CoC.
Moist mid-level air will be over-riding it creating strong dry-line convection.
Looks like the TPW feed may come in from the W Carib.
May see some strong fireworks Saturday morning if Karen's circulation holds up.
I am thinking the secondary Coriolis forcing working on her as she tracks due north may just do this.

[Craters]

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

Happy birthday, you whippersnapper! Ah, to be 54 again and be able to read some of the submicroscopic maps and other stuff that you guys post here...

[StormLogic]

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

Happy birthday, you whippersnapper! Ah, to be 54 again and be able to read some of the submicroscopic maps and other stuff that you guys post here...

Ctrl+Scroll wheel on mouse

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1176932367266504705

[sma10]

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1176932367266504705

To be honest, Karen never fails to annoy and disappoint

[northjaxpro]

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

Happy birthday, you whippersnapper! Ah, to be 54 again and be able to read some of the submicroscopic m6aps and other stuff that you guys post here...

Thanks Crafters for the Birthday wish. I haven't heard the "whippersnapper" word in a long time LOL Man the years really are ceeping up on me faster now.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1176944953991290880

[hipshot]

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

Happy birthday, you whippersnapper! Ah, to be 54 again and be able to read some of the submicroscopic m6aps and other stuff that you guys post here...

Thanks Crafters for the Birthday wish. I haven't heard the "whippersnapper" word in a long time LOL Man the years really are ceeping up on me faster now.

I got a "joke?" in an email from an old friend that said "Life is like a roll of toilet paper, the closer you get to the end, the faster it goes" Man ain't that the truth!!

[wx98]

Looks like Karen still has a well defined LLC right along 23N, 64W. However, there is little to nothing in the way of organized convection around the center. While the LLC is moving NNE to NE, the thunderstorms that do form are getting blown away to the NNW due to the influence of the ULL off to the NW of Karen.

[rbaker55]

Until there is no convection, its not gone. Ive seen many systems pulsate off and on. Its not getting completely sheared as its moving the same direction as the shear is coming from which from the south.