Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 20.9W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 20.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
general motion toward the west is expected through Monday, with a
motion toward the west-northwest expected Monday night and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass
well south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is expected, with the depression forecast to
become a tropical storm on Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday night.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
Satellite imagery and partial scatterometer overpasses indicate
that the tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has
developed enough circulation and organized convection to be
designated a tropical depression. The convection is currently
organized into a large band over the western semicircle, with an
additional smaller band to the southeast. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB.
The initial motion is 270/14. A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the depression should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the center passing
well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Near
the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn
northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track is in best
agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.
The cyclone is forecast to be in a light to moderate easterly shear
environment over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3-4
days, and there are no obvious negative factors to prevent
strengthening. The intensity forecast thus calls for steady
intensification through 96 h, with the intensity forecast lying near
the upper edge of the guidance from 48-96 h. Some southwesterly
shear may develop near 120 h, so the forecast show little change in
strength from 96-120 h.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 10.8N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 11.8N 28.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 12.6N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 15.5N 41.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 19.0N 45.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven