ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[CaribJam]

Hot tower at center alert with temps as low as ~-90 C! Anyone else see this? It is near 24N, 64 W:
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_201909260225_16.75_25.25_-72.00_-58.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

Yes, I see it... but only time will tell. By morning we will know whether that convection increases or not.

[wx98]

The perfect headline...

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE...

11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 24.4°N 63.6°W
Moving: NNE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Karen's always been a pretty pathetic storm every time it's come around. Glad to see that'll be the case again, the Bahamas don't need this.

[LarryWx]

**Mods, please move this to the models thread. Sorry about that.

0Z UKMET hot off the press: no longer dissipates but never gets close to CONUS:

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 64.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2019 0 24.1N 64.2W 1008 29
1200UTC 26.09.2019 12 26.2N 63.8W 1007 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 24 27.7N 62.4W 1006 29
1200UTC 27.09.2019 36 28.0N 60.9W 1005 34
0000UTC 28.09.2019 48 28.3N 60.0W 1005 38
1200UTC 28.09.2019 60 28.6N 60.9W 1006 30
0000UTC 29.09.2019 72 28.6N 62.6W 1005 29
1200UTC 29.09.2019 84 28.1N 64.3W 1004 27
0000UTC 30.09.2019 96 28.1N 65.2W 1002 34
1200UTC 30.09.2019 108 28.3N 65.6W 1001 32
0000UTC 01.10.2019 120 28.6N 65.6W 1000 32
1200UTC 01.10.2019 132 28.6N 65.9W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2019 144 28.2N 66.3W 1004 28

[Tailspin]

Karen looks decoupled,likely just remnants lpa of the surface now low remains.

[Craters]

Cycloneye -- If you're online, how did PR do with the rain from Karen? I might have missed it/them, but I haven't seen any posts from you for a while -- which is very understandable if the rains were anything like they were here from Imelda...

[GCANE]

UL conditions are improving.
ULL is moving quickly away from Karen.
Anticyclone has developed overhead.

[GCANE]

Vorts are getting aligned as well.
Not entirely stacked, but much better than when Karen was passing over PR.

[GCANE]

Now for the fly that has been in the ointment.

Nice roll starting up on TPW. Convergence is improving faster than what GFS was forecasting yesterday.
Interaction with Jerry is stretching out. Rubber band may break sooner than expected.
Looks like its setting up for a really good infeed from the Carib.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

Seems the biggest kicker right now is the mid-level jet from the ULL interaction.
ULL is pulling away and there is some light convection in it.
And, it appears the anti-cyclone is beginning to influnece the mid-levels.
So, good chance this inhibition may slowly deteriorate.

[GCANE]

IR showing a nice rotating hot tower going around a warm-core hole.
Just SW of the CoC.
Let's see if this persists.

[GCANE]

Seems like the seconday Coriolis force I mentiioned before maybe saving Karen.
This is something I know is not programmed in the models and few people know about.
Perhaps some of the old-timers may like Stewart.
I derived it in an advanced mechanics class in college.
Other people may know about it strictly from observations.
I verified from a few observations.
One was a TC in this area about 10 years ago under severe shear. It ramped up to a Cat 2.
Another was Katrina in the GOM.

Latest GFS is showing a really good window of opportunity for Karen to intensify in about 72 hrs.
Ideal PV ring.
Classic, uninhibited feed of high-TPW air.

[GCANE]

The big question is, will Karen then be strong enough to out gun the PV Streamer?

[Weatherboy1]

I go to bed with Karen looking pathetic. Then she says “I’m not dead yet!” Lol. Deep convection building again and looks the best she has in some time. Whether she can maintain that improved state? That’s the big question

[northjaxpro]

Seems the biggest kicker right now is the mid-level jet from the ULL interaction.
ULL is pulling away and there is some light convection in it.
And, it appears the anti-cyclone is beginning to influnece the mid-levels.
So, good chance this inhibition may slowly deteriorate.

I agree GCANE

ULL moving west a bit faster . Overall structure of Karen has dramatically improved just within the past 6-8 hours.

[Weatherboy1]

Seems the biggest kicker right now is the mid-level jet from the ULL interaction.
ULL is pulling away and there is some light convection in it.
And, it appears the anti-cyclone is beginning to influnece the mid-levels.
So, good chance this inhibition may slowly deteriorate.

I agree GCANE

ULL moving west a bit faster . Overall structure of Karen has dramatically improved just within the past 6-8 hours.

Karen is like one of those monsters from a horror movie. Just when you think she’s dead ... she rises again lol. But in all seriousness, definitely looks a lot healthier this a.m.

[northjaxpro]

She certainly looks much better than when I went to bed last night. Deep convection is actually building closer to the center of circulation again, as the anticyclone is building over it this morning.

She is looking about as good as she ever has right now, even when she moved over PR. How long will this continue is the HUGE question obviously. Short term at least the next 36 hours or so, I have to say conditions look OK for Karen to maintain or even intensify some as that ULL continues to move out to the west a bit quicker than initially progged.

We'll see how this looks by Saturday morning. Lots of uncertainty from Saturday and beyond still on the table with Karen .....

[Weatherboy1]

FWIW, latest GFS brings Karen or whatever is left of her all the way or very close to the FL coast. Obviously that’s very far out in time though so things can certainly change

[wx98]

Karen continues to look much better on IR this morning. It actually has some shape and structure now instead of random thunderstorms and a naked swirl.

[jlauderdal]

No sign of bones this morning from wxman57.