ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

No doubt we still have to watch Karen very closely. She already has been faking us out believing that we are about to bring Bones out, but springs back to life rather abruptly, like we are seeing this morning. Karen is a tricky one that is for sure!!

[Tailspin]

500mb profile
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 26.14,1405

250 profile
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 26.14,1405
ull

crappy

[NDG]

I can't believe the latest NHC discussion on Karen is based on an ASCAT that passed over Karen at 9 PM, 8 hrs old, when Karen was looking pathetic vs the current satellite presentation and a microwave pass 6 hrs later from the ASCAT pass.
The microwave image clearly shows the LLC is west much closer to the deep convection than their 5 AM estimated position.

[northjaxpro]

I tell you what, observation satellite imagery, it sure looks like Karen is building a CDO quite nicely this morning in my tired eyes lol.

But, seriously, I would about hedge a wager that Karen is much stronger early this morning than what was anticipated at this time right now!

[NDG]

This is my point that I have been making for days that past 4-5 days models do a bad job forecasting the UL conditions/sypnotic set up.

Current mid level heights and UL winds:


Forecast from for same time 5 days ago:

[Do_For_Love]

Don't call it a comeback! Jk. In all honesty I expected Karen to dissipate based on what I was seeing last night, but I guess not. We'll see what today brings, she has been all over the place.

[SootyTern]

Is the ULL over the Bahamas moving slightly S of due west? Wasn't it supposed to go NW then N of Karen?

[NDG]

Looking at the first vis sat loop this where I see Karen's LLC, near 26.3N 64.2W,on the NE tip of the dip convection, still somewhat elongated circulation but definitely looking much better than what it did yesterday.

[AutoPenalti]

Looking at the first vis sat loop this where I see Karen's LLC, near 26.3N 64.2W,on the NE tip of the dip convection, still somewhat elongated circulation but definitely looking much better than what it did yesterday.

https://i.imgur.com/VudyTdt.jpg?1

It helps when it had gone through DMAX earlier. Looks like it’s trying to get it’s act together again.

[Emmett_Brown]

Karen is in a low shear environment at the moment: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[northjaxpro]

NDG, that is getting tucked in now. Karen is a strengthening cyclone this morning.

BTW, the ULL is moving west. No southward component to the ULL yet. It is moving quicker than forecast, which has allowed Karen to take advantage of much improved upper level conditions this morning.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yes convective activity has increased, but it doesn't look very organized. Minimal convective banding. Just another "blob". Karen remains poorly organized.

[StormingB81]

57...what say you about this

[northjaxpro]

Yes convective activity has increased, but it doesn't look very organized. Minimal convective banding. Just another "blob". Karen remains poorly organized.

Respectfully disagree with you. She is gradually getting vertically stacked this morning as the anticyclone is getting more over it now and convective banding will only improve around the center with the signals I am seeing with the cyclone currrently. This is the best Karen has appeared in her life cycle to this juncture.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yes convective activity has increased, but it doesn't look very organized. Minimal convective banding. Just another "blob". Karen remains poorly organized.

Respectfully disagree with you. She is gradually getting vertically stacked this morning as the anticyclone is getting more over it now and convective banding will only improve around the center with the signals I am seeing with the cyclone currrently. This is the best Karen has appeared in her life cycle to this juncture.

That's like winning an award for being the fastest tortoise... Not saying much lol.

Does it look better than yesterday? Yes. That doesn't mean it's necessarily an organized system. It does have a small window today to take advantage of lighter shear. We will see. Not overly impressed at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

Yes convective activity has increased, but it doesn't look very organized. Minimal convective banding. Just another "blob". Karen remains poorly organized.

Respectfully disagree with you. She is gradually getting vertically stacked this morning as the anticyclone is getting more over it now and convective banding will only improve around the center with the signals I am seeing with the cyclone currrently. This is the best Karen has appeared in her life cycle to this juncture.

Very clear curved band(s) outlined by the overshooting tops.

MLc needs to rebuild which it will.. we will see a pulse down which establish the mlc. Question is will the needed convection return to further the process of driving The vorticity up? The shear has clearly dropped as expected .. so we just have to wait.

[GCANE]

57...what say you about this

Fear the Bones

[GCANE]

Those circulating towers are continuing to leave warm core holes on IR.
Too bad its out of range for real-time rain-rate imagery.
Its not washing out like before.
Obviously getting much better LL convergence of moist air and a good updraft.

[northjaxpro]

Yes convective activity has increased, but it doesn't look very organized. Minimal convective banding. Just another "blob". Karen remains poorly organized.

Respectfully disagree with you. She is gradually getting vertically stacked this morning as the anticyclone is getting more over it now and convective banding will only improve around the center with the signals I am seeing with the cyclone currrently. This is the best Karen has appeared in her life cycle to this juncture.

That's like winning an award for being the fastest tortoise... Not saying much lol.

Does it look better than yesterday? Yes. That doesn't mean it's necessarily an organized system. It does have a small window today to take advantage of lighter shear. We will see. Not overly impressed at the moment.

We agree to disagree SouthDade. We have had some great analytical discussions in the past and it makes this spirited debate all the more why I love the job I have been doing now for many years.

[psyclone]

Karen has a history of producing symmetrical looking bursts of convection that provide a false appearance of organization only to disappear hours later. I suspect this is another one of those fake outs. Having said that, even this burst is more than I expected.