Texas Fall 2019

[Brent]

The 12z Euro looks a bit interesting at day 8-9 something weak tropical in the Western Gulf

Also looked like maybe an EPAC recurve

But it has mid 90s for DFW the entire run

[Cpv17]

I count on climatology and October is almost here so.... we should have a high below 90 within the next week or two.

We can't go by old climatology anymore because we are in the midst of a climate shift on a global scale. October is a transitional month in any event but personally I won't be getting Hope's up until there is a front at the doorstep of the Rain Cave. Actually forget cooler weather, I want rain darn it!!! http://yoursmiles.org/tsmile/rain/t111044.gif

I’m with you on this one. I don’t really care about cooler temps unless it snows which might not ever happen again lol I just like my rain a whole lot!! Plus with rain comes cooler temps anyways.

[Portastorm]

The 12z Euro looks a bit interesting at day 8-9 something weak tropical in the Western Gulf

Also looked like maybe an EPAC recurve

But it has mid 90s for DFW the entire run

Saw that as well, Brent, and am hoping the operational run was an outlier compared to the others (we should probably check the ensemble later). Looked like the 12z Euro had a tropical storm making landfall along the middle Texas coast around days 8-9. No signs of a front. Frustrating after several Euro and GFS runs showed said front. GFS has been consistent about it but is it consistently wrong?!

[bubba hotep]

DFW going for most 90s and driest September... I love Fall...

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro looks a bit interesting at day 8-9 something weak tropical in the Western Gulf

Also looked like maybe an EPAC recurve

But it has mid 90s for DFW the entire run

Saw that as well, Brent, and am hoping the operational run was an outlier compared to the others (we should probably check the ensemble later). Looked like the 12z Euro had a tropical storm making landfall along the middle Texas coast around days 8-9. No signs of a front. Frustrating after several Euro and GFS runs showed said front. GFS has been consistent about it but is it consistently wrong?!

We’ve been seeing strong signs of fronts coming in the 7-10 day range for several weeks now and they’ve yet to verify. Why are y’all buying into this one that’s being forecasted now? Just cuz of climo?

[Brent]

The 12z Euro looks a bit interesting at day 8-9 something weak tropical in the Western Gulf

Also looked like maybe an EPAC recurve

But it has mid 90s for DFW the entire run

Saw that as well, Brent, and am hoping the operational run was an outlier compared to the others (we should probably check the ensemble later). Looked like the 12z Euro had a tropical storm making landfall along the middle Texas coast around days 8-9. No signs of a front. Frustrating after several Euro and GFS runs showed said front. GFS has been consistent about it but is it consistently wrong?!

We’ve been seeing strong signs of fronts coming in the 7-10 day range for several weeks now and they’ve yet to verify. Why are y’all buying into this one that’s being forecasted now? Just cuz of climo?

Its about to be October it cant possibly stay like this unless were gonna rewrite records

[Cpv17]

Saw that as well, Brent, and am hoping the operational run was an outlier compared to the others (we should probably check the ensemble later). Looked like the 12z Euro had a tropical storm making landfall along the middle Texas coast around days 8-9. No signs of a front. Frustrating after several Euro and GFS runs showed said front. GFS has been consistent about it but is it consistently wrong?!

We’ve been seeing strong signs of fronts coming in the 7-10 day range for several weeks now and they’ve yet to verify. Why are y’all buying into this one that’s being forecasted now? Just cuz of climo?

Its about to be October it cant possibly stay like this unless were gonna rewrite records

It wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t get our first decent front till mid to late October. This weather pattern we’re in is way out of the norm so that’s why it wouldn’t surprise me. Models have been hinting at a western Gulf tropical threat off and on for several days now. That is unheard of for this time of year.

[Ntxw]

DFW to date is averaging 85.4F which is well ahead of 2005, the warmest by a good margin. Most monthly average records are topped in tenths of a degree (monthly) when you are talking top 5. It will come down some but it will far and away be the hottest September on record for the big airport.

I still do believe a change will come, but little inbetween. Extremes seem to be the norm lately.

[CaptinCrunch]

Saw that as well, Brent, and am hoping the operational run was an outlier compared to the others (we should probably check the ensemble later). Looked like the 12z Euro had a tropical storm making landfall along the middle Texas coast around days 8-9. No signs of a front. Frustrating after several Euro and GFS runs showed said front. GFS has been consistent about it but is it consistently wrong?!

We’ve been seeing strong signs of fronts coming in the 7-10 day range for several weeks now and they’ve yet to verify. Why are y’all buying into this one that’s being forecasted now? Just cuz of climo?

Its about to be October it cant possibly stay like this unless were gonna rewrite records

Speaking of records, September has the chance to set or tie 4 records. (*currently is has the record) **Updated

Highest Average Temp (83.7 in 1939, 2005) **85.5
Highest Maximum Temp (95.2 in 2005) **95.6
Highest Minimum Temp (74.1 in 1998) **75.4
Driest (0.06 in 2014) **T

As for October there has been a recorded high of 90+ on everyday but the 25th, and 31st. Warmest October on record is 2016, Coldest 1976, Driest 1975, wettest 2018

[starsfan65]

prediction: It will get much cooler next week.

[Brent]

FWD seems hopeful

The upper low will finally jet off to the east, rounding the
northern part of the ridge and crossing the Central Plains around
the middle part of next week. This should give the next cold
front enough of a push to send it south through the entire CWA on
Thursday. Unfortunately, subsidence from the persistent ridge
may end up suppressing deep convection, though model guidance does
hint at some precip along and south of Interstate 20 with the
front. Either way, we should finally experience some relief from
the heat as we move through the first week of October.

[bubba hotep]

Never ending ridge... It looks like 90s could extend into the 1st week of October? Does anyone know the record for consecutive days above 90F to start October?



There is potential for a WPAC recurve and Lorenzo will do the same in the NATL. Maybe that will be enough to finally breakdown this pattern we have been stuck in?

[Ntxw]

Outflow coming through eastplexers. Shower activity going on northeast. Perhaps forecast high bust today, hopeful.

[CaptinCrunch]

Outflow coming through eastplexers. Shower activity going on northeast. Perhaps forecast high bust today, hopeful.

With a forecast high of 97 even if we don't reach that mark it will still be another 90+ day making it the 25th this month, both Burleson and Possum Kingdom recorded a high of 100 yesterday.

Should we continue the 90+ trend, Sunday will tie the record, Monday to break it.

To keep this Winter dream alive I will again refer to Neutral Fall/Winter 2013/2014. September 2013 is ranked 7th hottest 82.4F, in that month there were 22 days of 90+ temps.
The first 4 days of October were also 90+, and of the first 15 days of the month there were only 6 that were average or below temp wise. The 2nd half was cooler than average, and it was the turning point for a below aveage November, and colder than average Winter.

[dhweather]

From this mornings FWD AFD - much respect for the RIDGE OF DEATH


Through at least the middle of next week, rain chances appear
very low and the warm conditions are likely to persist as the mid-
level ridge across the southeast US continues to slowly migrate
westward. The first few days of October will feel more like early
September as highs in the low to mid 90s are still advertised. So
will it cool down across the region next week? Well, the only
glimmer of hope that we have will be Thursday and into Friday. The
Canadian and to some degree the GFS (and many of their ensemble
members) continue to plow a stout front through North and Central
Texas during the late to end part of the work week. The ECMWF does
show FROPA, but the associated CAA is not nearly as great as
suggested by the Canadian and GFS. The overall trend would favor
the ECMWF solution. Given the current spread among model
guidance, however, I will show a slight cool down (temperatures
in upper 80s and low 90s). Rain chances with this front don`t look
great at this time, so I`ll advertise dry conditions. As noted in
previous discussions, the forecast will be subject to change as
subsequent model guidance arrives, so stay tuned.

[Portastorm]

As we near the end of what I would term one of the worst Septembers to remember ... Austin has seen 19 of 25 days at or above 100 degrees. Our average mean temperature is running more than 7 degrees above normal! If you know much about how mean temperatures are calculated, you know that values THAT MUCH above normal are rather incredible. We are also running several degrees warmer than the warmest September on record which was 2011.

[dhweather]

I'm really starting to think we're going to need a Nuri caliber event to change the pattern. The RIDGE OF DEATH this year is in some ways, comparable to 2011.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm really starting to think we're going to need a Nuri caliber event to change the pattern. The RIDGE OF DEATH this year is in some ways, comparable to 2011.

Yeah, it's fortunate that our water supplies were at or near capacity when this Luciferian ridge took over in July. In 2011, we were in worse shape.

[weatherdude1108]

I think every forecast in Texas should read:

There is a greater than 50 percent chance of warmth and dry weather.
Stay hydrated, but you should bring an umbrella and warmup in your purse/man purse, just in case something changes.

That would CYA a lot of forecasters and meteorologists.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Dallas is hosting the NHL Winter Classic in the Cotton Bowl on Jan 1. I'm starting to worry about it.