ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[boca]

Do we need to be concerned about Karen in Florida or is it just going to meander out there?

[wxman57]

Do we need to be concerned about Karen in Florida or is it just going to meander out there?

Some of its moisture could reach the FL Peninsula next week, resulting in enhanced shower activity.

[toad strangler]

Do we need to be concerned about Karen in Florida or is it just going to meander out there?

Some of its moisture could reach the FL Peninsula next week, resulting in enhanced shower activity.

Which would be awesome being it looks like the rainy season has ended early here.

[wxman57]

I don't think there's any LLC under that convection, and NE of the convection looks like a trof axis. However, I did notice something interesting SE of the convection. There is a definite rotation near 26.1N / 66.7W. Not sure what that is. Recon would be nice. I'll bet the NHC forecasters are banging their heads against a wall about now.

[1900hurricane]

Is there a reason why you posted a wv satellite pix from last night?
Here is the current image:

https://i.imgur.com/10LkD4h.jpg

Its a real-time image I got from Slider of LL WV not mid-level WV.
I wanted to highlight the fact its LL dry air being over run by mid-level moist air.

My bad, I just checked the time stamp, it is old. Sorry.

Not sure why, but RAMMB SLIDER imagery does run behind on occasion. Their Geocolor in particular give me issues sometimes. Usually all the main bands are pretty timely at least.

[blp]

I don't think there's any LLC under that convection, and NE of the convection looks like a trof axis. However, I did notice something interesting SE of the convection. There is a definite rotation near 26.1N / 66.7W.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen17.JPG

I was just going to post on that. I was wondering what that was on the visible loop. That would certainly change things if the LLC would take hold over there. Looks interesting.

[Emmett_Brown]

I think there is a recon flight into Karen at 18Z, correct?

[wxman57]

I don't think there's any LLC under that convection, and NE of the convection looks like a trof axis. However, I did notice something interesting SE of the convection. There is a definite rotation near 26.1N / 66.7W.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen17.JPG

I was just going to post on that. I was wondering what that was on the visible loop. That would certainly change things if the LLC would take hold over there. Looks interesting.

It's interesting. I don't think it would change Karen's future. It should be dissipating well east of the Bahamas - if it hasn't already dissipated.

[NDG]

I don't think there's any LLC under that convection, and NE of the convection looks like a trof axis. However, I did notice something interesting SE of the convection. There is a definite rotation near 26.1N / 66.7W. Not sure what that is. Recon would be nice. I'll bet the NHC forecasters are banging their heads against a wall about now.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen17.JPG

Hot off the press, LLC is on the NE edge of the convection as I have said, that rotation you notice near 26.1N/66.7 is the old MLC:

[wxman57]

Here's the NHC's position - east of the convection. I don't disagree with their assessment. Karen's circulation is elongating.

[blp]

I don't know why NHC is saying elongated. Looks pretty good to me.

[NDG]

I don't know why NHC is saying elongated. Looks pretty good to me.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/581cf5d425885c3a0eb8b1b0f4d245411e6b7eaa4d7a2d1afc090631193413a0.jpg

It is a bit elongated on the NE quadrant but a lot better organized than what it was last night, probably a lot to do with that the NE quadrant is starting to feel the circulation from Jerry's remnant low which still a large circulation.

[blp]

I don't know why NHC is saying elongated. Looks pretty good to me.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/581cf5d425885c3a0eb8b1b0f4d245411e6b7eaa4d7a2d1afc090631193413a0.jpg

It is a bit elongated on the NE quadrant but a lot better organized than what it was last night, probably a lot to do with that the NE quadrant is starting to feel the circulation from Jerry's remnant low which still a large circulation.

And right under the convection now. So this should start taking off.

[boca]

The NHC is forecasting Karen to be a remnant low in 3 to 5 days due to northerly shear,but I’m wondering if that could change?

[LarryWx]

I don't think there's any LLC under that convection, and NE of the convection looks like a trof axis. However, I did notice something interesting SE of the convection. There is a definite rotation near 26.1N / 66.7W.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen17.JPG

I was just going to post on that. I was wondering what that was on the visible loop. That would certainly change things if the LLC would take hold over there. Looks interesting.

It's interesting. I don't think it would change Karen's future. It should be dissipating well east of the Bahamas - if it hasn't already dissipated.

IF that circulation near 66.7 noted by 57 were to somehow take over (no reason to expect that as of now), it would be ~225 miles WSW of the current LLC/model consensus, which would mean future model runs once incorporating this could markedly change.

[Emmett_Brown]

I don't know why NHC is saying elongated. Looks pretty good to me.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/581cf5d425885c3a0eb8b1b0f4d245411e6b7eaa4d7a2d1afc090631193413a0.jpg

A nice large area of W and NW winds on that image as well, so there is definitely a closed circulation

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone else want to say its not closed.. ?


Also the nhc has to follow the guidance to a degree. Trends will determine what the models do and thus what nhc forecasts. Sooo we have to wait

[GCANE]

OSCAT is showing some 40 knot barbs

[EquusStorm]

What a weird and frustrating storm. Good thing it's doing that in about as middle of nowhere as you can get for a west Atlantic storm.

[GCANE]

Recon about to get airborne