ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I know it sounds like I'm gushing, but the sheer scale of Lorenzo combined with its intensity is incredible. Feeder bands from Lorenzo extend over 1,300 miles.

[StruThiO]

Another fun comparison

Jose '17, 135 kt



Lorenzo '19, 125 kt on 00z best track

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I truly think that they will increase it to at least 150mph. Any thoughts.

[bob rulz]

This is 135kts minimum tbh, but it easily could be stronger. I'm hoping it keeps strengthening so that the NHC has no choice but to pull the trigger on cat 5.

[northjaxpro]

This is truly amazing Never thought we’d see a borderline Cat 5 way out here

This hurricane season has been quite an historic one. Incredible!!! Lorenzo making history in the Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic just continues the theme of this unbelievable season. These hurricanes are maximizing every bit of their potential this season. Wow !

[wx98]

This is improving by the hour on IR

[Highteeld]

White ring thickens a bit more on the north side and we should have an instantaneous T 7.0

[TallyTracker]

Lorenzo is on the cusp of Cat 5 in my opinion. I would put it at 155 mph. Personally if I were the NHC, I would want to see an instantaneous 7.0 before classifying it as a Cat 5.

[CrazyC83]

White ring thickens a bit more on the north side and we should have an instantaneous T 7.0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir-dvorak_13L_201909270125.jpg?1713188

That would be closer to T7.5 if the white ring can thicken since there is plenty of CMG and a warm eye. Even a dot of CDG in there.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Hurricane 13L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 9.0

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2019 Time : 005024 UTC
Lat : 17:12:00 N Lon : 41:14:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 932.5mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.7 6.7

[1900hurricane]

I ran KZC for 125 to 140 kt given current measurables. Here's what I got.

>>> c = 14
>>> l = 18
>>> oci = 1012
>>> r34 = 155
>>> for v in range (125, 141, 5):
print('%d kt, %.0f mb' % (v, KZC(KZCdP(v, c, r34, l), oci)))


125 kt, 939 mb
130 kt, 934 mb
135 kt, 930 mb
140 kt, 925 mb

[Highteeld]

White ring thickens a bit more on the north side and we should have an instantaneous T 7.0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir-dvorak_13L_201909270125.jpg?1713188

That would be closer to T7.5 if the white ring can thicken since there is plenty of CMG and a warm eye. Even a dot of CDG in there.

Yeah. I guess that's one thing that's clunky about KNES/JTWC satellite DVORAK estimates. You either go the full 7.5 or 7.0... no matter how much CMG is in there.

[northjaxpro]

Pressure now down to 932 mb

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I ran KZC for 125 to 140 kt given current measurables. Here's what I got.

>>> c = 14
>>> l = 18
>>> oci = 1012
>>> r34 = 155
>>> for v in range (125, 141, 5):
print('%d kt, %.0f mb' % (v, KZC(KZCdP(v, c, r34, l), oci)))


125 kt, 939 mb
130 kt, 934 mb
135 kt, 930 mb
140 kt, 925 mb

How you do that sir.

[northjaxpro]

I truly think that they will increase it to at least 150mph. Any thoughts.

I personally believe Lorenzo is pushing at 135 -140 kt at least right now based on eye satellite presentation. This is an historic hurricane and it still could strengthen a bit more before he reaches peak intensity. This is one cyclone for the ages here!!

[Kazmit]

This can't only be 125kts...

[CrazyC83]

I truly think that they will increase it to at least 150mph. Any thoughts.

I personally believe Lorenxo is pushing at 135 -140 kt at least right now based on eye satellite presentation. This is an historic hurricane and it still could strengthen a bit more before he reaches peak intensity. This is one cyclone for the ages here!!

I'd go with 135 kt personally. I'd want to see a 7.0 somewhere before going over the bar.

[StruThiO]

Definitely 140kt probably pushing 145

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Homie J]

White ring thickens a bit more on the north side and we should have an instantaneous T 7.0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir-dvorak_13L_201909270125.jpg?1713188

That would be closer to T7.5 if the white ring can thicken since there is plenty of CMG and a warm eye. Even a dot of CDG in there.

what does CMG and CDG mean?

[CrazyC83]

White ring thickens a bit more on the north side and we should have an instantaneous T 7.0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir-dvorak_13L_201909270125.jpg?1713188

That would be closer to T7.5 if the white ring can thicken since there is plenty of CMG and a warm eye. Even a dot of CDG in there.

what does CMG and CDG mean?

Cold medium gray (second coldest cloud top color, there's a lot of it) and cold dark gray (coldest cloud top, a pixel or two has popped up occasionally). For reference, if there was a solid CDG ring we'd have an easy T8.0.