ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- EquusStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1649
- Age: 33
- Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
- Location: Jasper, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The IR loop of cloud tops warming is kinda mesmerizing. Probably more flareups into D-min though.
0 likes
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22506
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The center is still east of the convection. It's not getting stronger, it's weakening. Behaving just as predicted.
7 likes
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Main Convection firing just SW of the CoC.
New dryline / trough convection firing NE of the CoC, much closer than before.
New dryline / trough convection firing NE of the CoC, much closer than before.
1 likes
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Karen running into higher UL winds with a 500mb vort displaced to the SW.
Creates a strong directional shear.
At low levels, still can't converge TPW and CAPE air.
Convection looks to be washing out.
Jerry just kept too close.
Wobbled around too much and never kept a good solid due north track.
Karen maybe coming to an end.
Creates a strong directional shear.
At low levels, still can't converge TPW and CAPE air.
Convection looks to be washing out.
Jerry just kept too close.
Wobbled around too much and never kept a good solid due north track.
Karen maybe coming to an end.
2 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Karen is on her last gasp of air now. She's a fighter no doubt as she has fought off pending death notices for several days. However, I think she may be about to give up her ghost pretty soon.
Hey 57, this 2019 season has picked up so dramatically since mid August, we haven't seen Bones much at all to this point thus far. I guess you can finally bring him out soon to have him make his famed proclamation with this system very soon, likely within the next 24 hours.
Hey 57, this 2019 season has picked up so dramatically since mid August, we haven't seen Bones much at all to this point thus far. I guess you can finally bring him out soon to have him make his famed proclamation with this system very soon, likely within the next 24 hours.
1 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6356
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Karen might not make it to Saturday. Will be prudent though to keep track of her remnants as they track generally westward or SW under this eastern CONUS ridge. If she finds a sweet spot, look out.
2 likes
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I can honestly now say that I really doubt Karen is TS storm this morning, its circulation looks really elongated this morning. The swirl west of the deep unorganized convection is a dying MLC, the elongated LLC is east of the convection.
When the Euro speaks within 72 hrs I should listen more often
When the Euro speaks within 72 hrs I should listen more often
1 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
- Emmett_Brown
- Category 5
- Posts: 1343
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
- Location: Sarasota FL
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looking at the vis loop this morning, it is remarkable how many swirly thingies there are... I am getting cross eyed looking at it. Clearly she is a storm of some kind; her persistence in this mangled state deserves a salute... Karen, you did it your way...
6 likes
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Karen is dead. I know the NHC will likely still call her a depression at 11am, but that is being g generous.
The models nailed the demise of Karen.
The models nailed the demise of Karen.
0 likes
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Unfortunately, IMO you cannot kill this one just yet until it looses all its thunderstorms like Jerry. As long as it keeps firing off those small towers it keeps the engine running. I agree the models look to have it right but Karen is not going down just yet. According to the models this will get blitzed by the shear in next 24-48hrs once it starts moves west. The Euro I think has it too far north and kills it too soon. I don't see it progressing that far North. The GFS may have a better handle on this showing very little North movement just drifting east then changing directions west. So the Karen saga will continue..
2 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hurricane Jed
- Category 2
- Posts: 542
- Age: 36
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2011 3:36 pm
- Location: Cen Tex
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
...KAREN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY TIME...
I think we’ve already reached that point
I think we’ve already reached that point
0 likes
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
57 has done well with Karen. Nice job! The remnant low will still be interesting to track. The non threatening ones like this are the most enjoyable for me because of the lack of danger and yet they are just as interesting as far as "where will it go". Example: Harmless Fred from a number of years ago coming all the way across to the SE coast. Also, I predict there will still be flareups that will that will get increased attention when they occur.
3 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Ahh yes, we have not seen the good ole' Dr. BONES much this season. Well, now, he has come up to Sick Bay and made it official now.
T. S. Karen R.I.P. Sept 27, 2019.
T. S. Karen R.I.P. Sept 27, 2019.
2 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- Emmett_Brown
- Category 5
- Posts: 1343
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
- Location: Sarasota FL
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
LarryWx wrote:57 has done well with Karen. Nice job! The remnant low will still be interesting to track. The non threatening ones like this are the most enjoyable for me because of the lack of danger and yet they are just as interesting as far as "where will it go". Example: Harmless Fred from a number of years ago coming all the way across to the SE coast. Also, I predict there will still be flareups that will that will get increased attention when they occur.
Yeah, this is often where the fun starts. There could be days over the next week where someone gets to say "Karen has never looked better!" ... and then we can all debate about whether she should be reclassified, and bicker about bringing her back from the dead... these can be memorable moments, and a good pass time while we wait for the W Caribbean to heat up.
2 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6811
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: RE: Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Its official nowwxman57 wrote:Bones has seen enough...
0 likes
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Dry air is allowing us to see the low level remnants, pressure gradient is moderating every hour without new convection. So the low level swirl is supposed to loop around to the southeast and then head for the gulf?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests