2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

Extreme long range but 06z GEFS still showing pretty good clustering of Ensemble members in the western Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/patR3RD.png

This extreme long range W Car. action also shows up on the 12Z GEFS with actual TC genesis down to 1003 or lower for ~2/3 of the members 10/8-12 with 40% of the ~21 members getting down to 999 or lower. This is the easily the strongest signal of any GEFS run so in that area for that timeframe, especially as regards 999 mb or stronger TCs. This would be after the period now showing GOM TCs at days 9-10 on some models. So, this could very well be something different.

Hi Larry, indeed still way out there but worth keeping an eye on. Normally these CAGs have a 50/50 chance of producing a TC in either the NATL or EPAC basins. Hope to have more clarity in 3-4 days.

[LarryWx]

Extreme long range but 06z GEFS still showing pretty good clustering of Ensemble members in the western Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/patR3RD.png

This extreme long range W Car. action also shows up on the 12Z GEFS with actual TC genesis down to 1003 or lower for ~2/3 of the members 10/8-12 with 40% of the ~21 members getting down to 999 or lower. This is the easily the strongest signal of any GEFS run so in that area for that timeframe, especially as regards 999 mb or stronger TCs. This would be after the period now showing GOM TCs at days 9-10 on some models. So, this could very well be something different.

Hi Larry, indeed still way out there but worth keeping an eye on. Normally these CAGs have a 50/50 chance of producing a TC in either the NATL or EPAC basins. Hope to have more clarity in 3-4 days.

https://i.imgur.com/cNm6JRE.png

OTOH, the 12Z EPS is not at all excited about 10/8-12 in the W Caribbean.

[NDG]

I think the possibilities of development in the western Caribbean/southern GOM could be sooner than later, as soon as next week. All models are showing falling pressures and or development in the area.

[TheStormExpert]

I think the possibilities of development in the western Caribbean/southern GOM could be sooner than later, as soon as next week. All models are showing falling pressures and or development in the area.

The question after that is where does it go, and how strong might it be? The heat dome that doesn't seem to be going anywhere despite a -NAO suggests a western Gulf threat.

[LarryWx]

Extreme long range but 06z GEFS still showing pretty good clustering of Ensemble members in the western Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/patR3RD.png

This extreme long range W Car. action also shows up on the 12Z GEFS with actual TC genesis down to 1003 or lower for ~2/3 of the members 10/8-12 with 40% of the ~21 members getting down to 999 or lower. This is the easily the strongest signal of any GEFS run so in that area for that timeframe, especially as regards 999 mb or stronger TCs. This would be after the period now showing GOM TCs at days 9-10 on some models. So, this could very well be something different.

Hi Larry, indeed still way out there but worth keeping an eye on. Normally these CAGs have a 50/50 chance of producing a TC in either the NATL or EPAC basins. Hope to have more clarity in 3-4 days.

https://i.imgur.com/cNm6JRE.png

As active was the 12Z GEFS in the extreme long range, the 18Z run was even a bit more active. I counted ~50% of the 21 members with 999 or lower SLP vs ~40% the prior run. I'd like to see the EPS give a signal for then before I put much weight on this. Sometimes, the GEFS in that area in Oct. will have run after run showing a lot of activity to only later drop it. So, it could very well be a false signal for all we know. We'll see.

Edit: From best I can tell, this activity is set off by a wave moving from just off S America at hour 204 (10/5) that subsequently moves through the LAs and then Caribbean as at least a wave and even an actual TC in 3 cases of the 21.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is showing a system forming around 14 days near the same place Michael came together last year, with the MJO in phase 1 and climatology this area needs to be paid attention to to see if it continues in the model, if it develops we won’t know where or how strong until 5 days away but stay tuned

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 0zGFS is showing a system forming around 14 days near the same place Michael came together last year, with the MJO in phase 1 and climatology this area needs to be paid attention to to see if it continues in the model, if it develops we won’t know where or how strong until 5 days away but stay tuned

I am not liking all of this "hinting" of Caribbean action. It gives me a bad feeling that we are going to get something down there.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS with a large storm at the end in the NW Caribbean

[toad strangler]

6z GFS Ensembles are very busy down in the Caribbean beginning at 288 hours. We'll know by mid next week if these are false flags or not.

[N2FSU]

Is this possibly where we see development originate from? Looks like a ULL.


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[toad strangler]

Looking at the ensembles it sure looks like a disturbance coming from the far Eastern part of the basin is the catalyst.

[blp]

CFS has been sending a strong signal of lowering pressures during the time frame from Oct 13-23. IMO CFS is good on the patterns and it has picked up on a lot of the areas this year. Not specific tracks but general areas of activity. The period is also climatology peak for the WCar.

Monday:

Tuesday:

Wednesday:

Thursday:

Friday: (Today's run)

[SFLcane]

Interesting for sure... CFS is basically a lower res version of GFS.

Lets see if other models jump on board.

[SFLcane]

But when Euro/EPS show nothing you wonder if the GFS is doing its usual tricks. We shall see

[toad strangler]

But when Euro/EPS show nothing you wonder if the GFS is doing its usual tricks. We shall see

Why would the Euro show anything when all of this activity is post 240 hours right now?

[NDG]

But when Euro/EPS show nothing you wonder if the GFS is doing its usual tricks. We shall see

Yesterday I was thinking as early as next week we could see development in the western Caribbean/southern GOM but it makes sense that it will take longer than that if it will be monsoonal related with the MJO currently sticking around in our side of the world.
Past 10 days long range Euro does show below average MSLPs in the Caribbean along with above average precipitation and below average shear.
One thing for sure is that it will have the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic basin if anything develops.

[stormlover2013]

But when Euro/EPS show nothing you wonder if the GFS is doing its usual tricks. We shall see

euro actually shows a descent wave hitting texas

[SFLcane]

But when Euro/EPS show nothing you wonder if the GFS is doing its usual tricks. We shall see

Why would the Euro show anything when all of this activity is post 240 hours right now?

Well the EPS has been pretty busy at long range during this past active period. So it seems to think we'll be shutting down but doesn't mean nothing will happen. This sort of thing is a known bias on the GFS

[TallyTracker]

With the sweltering month we’re having here on the northern Gulf Coast (several days have hit 100 here in Tallahassee), I am watching the potential signal of a West Caribbean system moving north into the Gulf very closely. The setup reminds me of Michael. A storm forming in this area during the first two weeks of October is likely in my opinion. If shear is low, there is plenty of untapped hot water to allow for robust intensification. No one should be letting your guard down! Two more months of hurricane season to go...

[stormlover2013]

With the sweltering month we’re having here on the northern Gulf Coast (several days have hit 100 here in Tallahassee), I am watching the potential signal of a West Caribbean system moving north into the Gulf very closely. The setup reminds me of Michael. A storm forming in this area during the first two weeks of October is likely in my opinion. If shear is low, there is plenty of untapped hot water to allow for robust intensification. No one should be letting your guard down! Two more months of hurricane season to go...

we need a cold front to have a track like micheal or a strong trough, right now I don't see anything for the first 2 weeks in october to show a Micheal track once we get that cold front then yesss