2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[crownweather]

The 12Z EPS is still another EPS that says that the last couple of days of GEFS runs are likely out to lunch with their W Caribbean TC 10/8+. It has very little activity then. This tells me that the GEFS runs could very well be tracking a phantom, something it is known for there in October.

Hard to say because the EPS does not go out as far as GEFS. If you look at the GEFS during 240hr looks pretty barren as well. We need to wait a few more runs.

The EPS goes out to 360 and it has next to nothing during the days leading by up to 360.

I did count 6 out of 51 members that do have something in the western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche around 348 hrs. This is a 1 member increase over the 00 z 360 hr forecast.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS still with strong signal. Let's see if this version of the GFS gets rid of the phantoms of the past.

https://i.ibb.co/w4bMdmV/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-64.png

Paying more attention if/when the EPS shows more activity ~10/8+. Before then, I consider it only in the "interesting but quite possible phantom" category.

[crownweather]

Given the favorable MJO phase for the next 2 to 3 weeks, I think there's a fairly decent chance (50-50 chance) that we'll see something spin up in the western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico. Time frame looks to be between the 10th and 20th of October.

[toad strangler]

12Z GEFS still with strong signal. Let's see if this version of the GFS gets rid of the phantoms of the past.

https://i.ibb.co/w4bMdmV/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-64.png

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1177575457304113153

[blp]

The 12Z EPS is still another EPS that says that the last couple of days of GEFS runs are likely out to lunch with their W Caribbean TC 10/8+. It has very little activity then. This tells me that the GEFS runs could very well be tracking a phantom, something it is known for there in October.

Hard to say because the EPS does not go out as far as GEFS. If you look at the GEFS during 240hr looks pretty barren as well. We need to wait a few more runs.

The EPS goes out to 360 and it has next to nothing during the days leading by up to 360.

My bad thogut it only went out to 240hr.

[blp]

I don't think it's a phantom. You can see this coming from a wave behind Lorenzo. Most of the time the GFS shows phantoms is from over doing the Gyre. The question is will the wave wash out over CA like the Eurp or make it past. If one of these strong waves gets into the W.Carribean watch out.

[gatorcane]

Blp I am with you on this. I don’t think this is a GFS phantom special. In fact look at the catalyst for this getting ready to move off Africa:

[gatorcane]

The CMC develops this wave but in the Eastern Caribbean. GFS further west in the West-Central Caribbean:

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Look at the timeframe of the gfs. It is well known for pushing times back for developing systems further and further hence the phantom storms. It has already started doing this with this particular model storm as well. Most of all week, actually since last Saturday it was showing Oct 2-4 at the latest of something developing and now it’s pushing it back another week or so. It had me fooled just like it did with the phantom cold front we were supposed to have had. But wait it’s coming, just wait til next weekend

[Hurricaneman]

Look at the timeframe of the gfs. It is well known for pushing times back for developing systems further and further hence the phantom storms. It has already started doing this with this particular model storm as well. Most of all week, actually since last Saturday it was showing Oct 2-4 at the latest of something developing and now it’s pushing it back another week or so. It had me fooled just like it did with the phantom cold front we were supposed to have had. But wait it’s coming, just wait til next weekend

Initially the wave that was in front of Lorenzo a few days ago was modeled to develop in the western Caribbean but got sucked up by Lorenzo but the wave in west Africa won’t have that problem

[AJC3]

Not helping matters is the fact that the 18Z op-GFS and 12Z op-ECM become almost 180 degrees out of phase with each other with H50 height fields over the from the central CONUS to the central ATLC by day 10. All the more reason to look much more closely at ensemble means, trends, and to what degree a better consensus and continuity develops over the next week to 10 days. You can certainly tell that fall is settling in.

[WeatherEmperor]

On tonights episode of Happy Hour GFS, our friendly global model starts low pressure around 240 and has a hurricane drifting NNE right near the tip of Cuba lol








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[Hurricaneman]

On tonights episode of Happy Hour GFS, our friendly global model starts low pressure around 240 and has a hurricane drifting NNE right near the tip of Cuba lol

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190928/9a58267f1130755e84524aac7df225f9.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190928/bcb99fcf6319c036b65604362be7915c.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190928/8577d7a200a48368d27f84cac5710f3a.png


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The fact that it’s keeping consistently as far as time of cyclogenesis tells me this isn’t a phantom and do believe that the Euro will come aboard within the next few days and also this run is from the wave over extreme west Africa at the current moment

[WeatherEmperor]

On tonights episode of Happy Hour GFS, our friendly global model starts low pressure around 240 and has a hurricane drifting NNE right near the tip of Cuba lol

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201909 ... df225f.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201909 ... e7915c.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201909 ... 710f3a.png


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The fact that it’s keeping consistently as far as time of cyclogenesis tells me this isn’t a phantom and do believe that the Euro will come aboard within the next few days

Absolutely agree. Lets see in 2-4 days if this continues or not. If it does, we may have a big problem on our hands


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[AxaltaRacing24]

On tonights episode of Happy Hour GFS, our friendly global model starts low pressure around 240 and has a hurricane drifting NNE right near the tip of Cuba lol

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201909 ... df225f.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201909 ... e7915c.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201909 ... 710f3a.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The fact that it’s keeping consistently as far as time of cyclogenesis tells me this isn’t a phantom and do believe that the Euro will come aboard within the next few days

Absolutely agree. Lets see in 2-4 days if this continues or not. If it does, we may have a big problem on our hands


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I mean... Would we really be surprised?

[StruThiO]

00z ECMWF operational has a decent wave that emerges off Africa at 120h tracking westward towards the Carib.

Later in the run starts to amplify

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/9Vi5MrH

[AJC3]

00z ECMWF operational has a decent wave that emerges off Africa at 120h tracking westward towards the Carib.

Later in the run starts to amplify

https://i.imgur.com/ASa15bZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/E9WJg5b.png

00Z CMC has a moderate-strong TS pretty close to that location as well. While past history strongly suggests that it's overdone, the fact that both the ECM and CMC show "something" signals a decent chance for a respectable T-wave to be in that general location around that time.

[SFLcane]

I see overnight GFS was fun but Euro/EPS not much to see.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro shows the wave that could spark genesis in the Western Caribbean approaching the Lesser Antilles:



CMC a little faster with the wave: