2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1177692281501093889

[Steve]

Gator,

While I agree the US has escaped the worst of the storms, obviously there have been impacts probably into the hundreds of millions or so. I just wonder if the end game, if we are within 3 to 3 1/2 weeks or so,will have something coming up and hitting y’all or maybe something coming up in the Gulf from the BoC or Caribbean. The setup the next 10 days would have screwed us all if there would have been anything under the ridge. And there’s another one GFS has coming off the east coast after that, so idk if we are out the woods yet or not

Good to read some of those tweets that said an above average season is a formality by now. I wasn’t buying it, but with the 40+ we got from Dorian, chances went up. Now they have to be about 90% of > 110.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1178090055895793664

[StruThiO]

2019 joins the elite club of 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, and 2017 with more than one category five.

[Steve]

it also joins the seasons that were above average as 2019 is officially now as well.

[psyclone]

FWIW sea temps in the eastern Gulf are now a good bit cooler than they were a year ago heading into October when they were as warm as I've ever observed. While temps have overall been above normal, we've had quite a bit of strong east winds stirring and turning over the cauldron...with the net effect being water temps in the low to mid 80's...several degrees lower than 1 year ago. Still plenty warm to support tropical mischief...but nothing like a year ago and a good bit cooler than the western Gulf..

[MarioProtVI]

Possible we get at least 2 storms during October since some models (like the EURO) are indicating at least something to watch could be in the MDR later on this week. Would not be surprised to see another storm there and it would be nice to have an October MDR storm (in fact last year had one - Nadine).

Also of course watching the W Carib as some models have shown that something could possibly try to brew there. GFS especially consistent on a long-range (around October 12 or so) storm somewhere in the W Carib. Normally I would dismiss it at long range but given its been persistent with some type of system there at that timeframe for the last several runs (since at least late Sunday) makes me wonder. Then again it could be a ghost considering GFS has been pretty bad this year with forecasting (Dorian).

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1179112069548912641

[Emmett_Brown]

The overall pattern is looking more like late August than early October, with a huge heat wave high in the east. The air looks pretty stable over the Caribbean, even though pressures are somewhat low.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1179789593757044736

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1179827142604906496

[MetroMike]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1179827142604906496

I can see the bell signaling the end of the season. What was supposed to be an active month given the favorable parameters supposedly in place there seems to be underlying negative factors in place suppressing lows from doing anything but popping up and dying.

[psyclone]

That's a change from Noll's earlier tweets to watch the Gulf and western Caribbean during October. Hopefully this gives a massive torpedo to the October hurricane risk in the usual hot zones. Still too soon to know for sure but we are tilting the right direction.

[DioBrando]

I'll be reasonable here; thinking that the season will end with Lorenzo (hey!) because of a veeeery short lull is honestly rather daft just because you've seen one JMA model run for VPA (which usually leans conservative for Atlantic development.) How I'm seeing it is that, constantly, models have been pointing at genesis in the West Indies for what would likely become Mel, which I believe might likely happen. People have said, and I do agree that, for the time being, conditions are much more favourable for EPac genesis. My personal opinion? We might have to wait for genesis but not for too long; the remainder of the season will likely see up to about 3 more storms, regardless if they're weak Central Atlantic storms, they'll pop up anywhere.

For any indication to how we might progress from here on, I'd refer to Yaakov Cantor's tweet waay above mine.

(WINK WINK: Given the pattern this year I think we'll see two tropical storms and one hurricane named Nestor, no idea on strength yet. Don't take my word for it though.)

[EquusStorm]

Yeah even though 2002 and 2006 technically had no named storms develop after September I see those as major exceptions rather than the rule... I remember last year the season cancel posts while Kirk was struggling, just TWO WEEKS before a category five US landfall. Never ever ever turn your back on October, in both the Atlantic and Epac. Even November, really. No matter the broader-scale indicators, it doesn't take much more than a brief window of opportunity for something to blow up in WCarib. Just need shear to drop for a few days and it's off to the races.

[tolakram]

It's the October pause as the patterns shift. I think people that have been watching a while are used to it. In my opinion the models won't be showing anything of significance until next week or a bit later. Nothing believable past 5 days anyway. Some seasons drop off rapidly at this point but most have another mini peak in mid to late October.

[TheStormExpert]

The models this season seem to have struggled with showing development 3-5 days prior to development with a few exceptions like Lorenzo, etc. So if development were to occur in the Western Caribbean later this month it might be a bit before we see all models latch on if at all.

[Steve]

2013
2013
2013

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1180903692414996483

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1180903692414996483

If I can make some time, I'm going to look for other Octobers with similar MJO back to 1974 to see what ended up happening those
Octobers.