95L and Remains of Nicholas

Tip · #1 Postby **Tip** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 7:55 am

The blob south of Haiti is now an invest. Nicholas has convection firing over LCC.

Tip · #2 Postby **Tip** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 8:35 am

Just as an addendum, the latest vis loop shows a rotation of the cloud mass. Would not be surprised to see TD form later today or tomorrow.

JCT777 · #3 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 8:38 am

You may be right about a TD forming.

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 8:57 am

I agree, we have a TD and more likely a weak TS there now. It certainly looks A LOT more like a TS than Nicholas did for most of its life. Again, more inconsistency from the NHC.

Josephine96 · #5 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 9:12 am

If it's an invest isn't it a TD or does it have to become a "no name" to become a TD. Sorry if that's a silly question.

Ola · #6 Postby **Ola** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 9:30 am

What are the steering currents??

The special Disturbance statement said it would move into Hispaniola, but looking at vis loops it looks like it will stay south of it if it keeps moving the way it has in the last 5 hours or so. The 8:05 discussion said it was drifting east. Im curious to know what are the low level steering and mid level. Could this be another Lenny but weaker?

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 9:35 am

It appears to be moving NNE-NE at 8-10 mph, so it should be inland in 6-8hrs. Main threat will be heavy rain, maybe 5-10 inches across the DR.

OtherHD · #8 Postby **OtherHD** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 11:47 am

I don't know. I'm looking at the loops and I don't think this rotation is at the surface. I'm hard-pressed to find any westerly winds on the south side at the surface. Maybe wxman57 can provide one of his maps for us and shed some light.

stormchazer · #9 Postby **stormchazer** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 1:09 pm

If iyt is moving over Hispaniola then it would be hard pressed to survive as much anyway. Hispaniola is the great storm killer!!

#10 Postby **abajan** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 10:05 pm

Josephine96 wrote:If it's an invest isn't it a TD or does it have to become a "no name" to become a TD. Sorry if that's a silly question.

I think it has to be a "NONAME" to be classified as a TD. And no, I don't consider it a silly question.

95L and Remains of Nicholas

95L and Remains of Nicholas

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