Texas Fall 2019

[Ntxw]

"Cooler weather is irrelevant to me. We need rain."

If we don't get decent rain this fall in parts of Texas, we are in big trouble drought wise.

Yeah and it’s still not looking like we’ll see any decent rains for most of the state anytime soon. Sucks

We all better have been conserving and planned that we have experienced 4-5 years of plentiful rains and full reservoirs. It is cyclical and not if, but when the next multiyear drought will hit. 1990-1997 good, 1998-2001 bad, 2002-2004 good, 2005-2014 bad, 2015-? Good. It rises and falls with the PDO.

PDO has not yet crashed so we're still good through 2020 with sporadic dry spells.

[CaptinCrunch]

Tomorrow will be a record day for DFW, and September with 5 new records set.

Highest Average
Highest Maximum
Highest Minimum
Most 90F+ days
Driest

[bubba hotep]

Tomorrow will be a record day for DFW, and September with 5 new records set.

Highest Average
Highest Maximum
Highest Minimum
Most 90F+ days
Driest

You forgot one - Most 95F or above days.

Will this be the biggest + anomaly ever? DFW is currently smashing the old monthly record.

[Brent]

Tomorrow will be a record day for DFW, and September with 5 new records set.

Highest Average
Highest Maximum
Highest Minimum
Most 90F+ days
Driest

You forgot one - Most 95F or above days.

Will this be the biggest + anomaly ever? DFW is currently smashing the old monthly record.

I wonder if we'll ever have a record cold/snowy month like this

btw the 0z Euro is all aboard fall coming early next week... has a good rain event Monday and 40s outside the immediate metro at the end of the run

[dhweather]

"Cooler weather is irrelevant to me. We need rain."

If we don't get decent rain this fall in parts of Texas, we are in big trouble drought wise.

Yeah and it’s still not looking like we’ll see any decent rains for most of the state anytime soon. Sucks

Yeah, I love planting trees only for them to die.

[dhweather]

That's just mean man, mean. 0.25" in the next two weeks for the metroplex. I sure hope it's wrong.

[rwfromkansas]

That hole over DFW mocks us.

[CaptinCrunch]

Based on NOAA data, the 2018 average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the twentieth-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), making it the fourth-warmest year on record, and the
Global temperature hasn't been cooler than the twentieth-century average since 1976. Since the start of the twenty-first century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times with Nine out of the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 2005. From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every 3 years. According to the American Meteorological Society's State of the Climate in 2018, 2018 came in as the fourth warmest year on record in all four of the major global temperature datasets. Only 2015, 2016, and 2017 were warmer. The warmth occurred in the absence of El Niño, which is usually a factor in extreme global warmth.

On a smaller scale the top 8 of the top 10 warmest years (annual Temperature) on record for Dallas/Fort Worth have occurred between 1998 & 2017 with the top 3 warmest 2012. 2016. and 2017. The last time we scored a top 10 coolest year was 1983 (#3)

It's not any better when looking at the top 10 warmest for seasonal records with at least 4 of the top 10 in each of the four seasons occuring since 1999, and as for a coolest top 10 record since 1999? 1, Winter of 2009-2010 ranks #7

Annual Precipitation for DFW 4 of the top 8 wettest years have been since 2000, while there have been only 1 Driest (2005) and 1 Snowiest (2009-2010)

Is Man to blame for our planets increased warming? or is it just a Planetary cycle of heating and cooling that spans decades of time?

[wxman57]

Hmm, now who could be responsible for the warming? ...

Finally got enough rain from Imelda (10") to water my lawn. Total rain up to 11" this month with the additional inch last Friday. It's a very unusual fall. Was just discussing with my coworker the fact that I can't remember the last time we had a good low-level jet along the TX coast ahead of a cold front. That front will make it offshore next Monday night, but no good inflow of moisture ahead of it. Upper trof is dropping down from the NW rather than moving in from the west. Such fronts are generally dry (or drier). Need to get that ridge out of northern MX and the SW U.S.

[weatherdude1108]

Based on NOAA data, the 2018 average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the twentieth-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), making it the fourth-warmest year on record, and the
Global temperature hasn't been cooler than the twentieth-century average since 1976.

Since the start of the twenty-first century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times with Nine out of the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 2005. From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every 3 years.

On a smaller scale the top 8 of the top 10 warmest years (annual Temperature) on record for Dallas/Fort Worth have occurred between 1998 & 2017 with the top 3 warmest 2012. 2016. and 2017. The last time we scored a top 10 coolest year was 1983 (#3)

It's not any better when looking at the top 10 warmest for seasonal records with at least 4 of the top 10 in each of the four seasons occuring since 1999, and as for a coolest top 10 record since 1999? 1, Winter of 2009-2010 ranks #7

Annual Precipitation for DFW 4 of the top 8 wettest years have been since 2000, while there have been only 1 Driest (2005) and 1 Snowiest (2009-2010)

Is Man to blame for our planets increased warming? or is it just a Planetary cycle of heating and cooling that spans decades of time?

Could be a combination of both.

But that stated, it's so hard to google this topic and not have it bias/slant one way or another. I've tried. I've found either catastrophic warming alarmist stuff or climate change denier stuff, nothing much in between to get to just the facts.

Hard to NOT find the emotional sensationalism part of the topic; darned if you do believe it or don't.lol

[CaptinCrunch]

Based on NOAA data, the 2018 average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the twentieth-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), making it the fourth-warmest year on record, and the
Global temperature hasn't been cooler than the twentieth-century average since 1976.

Since the start of the twenty-first century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times with Nine out of the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 2005. From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every 3 years.

On a smaller scale the top 8 of the top 10 warmest years (annual Temperature) on record for Dallas/Fort Worth have occurred between 1998 & 2017 with the top 3 warmest 2012. 2016. and 2017. The last time we scored a top 10 coolest year was 1983 (#3)

It's not any better when looking at the top 10 warmest for seasonal records with at least 4 of the top 10 in each of the four seasons occuring since 1999, and as for a coolest top 10 record since 1999? 1, Winter of 2009-2010 ranks #7

Annual Precipitation for DFW 4 of the top 8 wettest years have been since 2000, while there have been only 1 Driest (2005) and 1 Snowiest (2009-2010)

Is Man to blame for our planets increased warming? or is it just a Planetary cycle of heating and cooling that spans decades of time?

Could be a combination of both.

But that stated, it's so hard to google this topic and not have it bias/slant one way or another. I've tried. I've found either catastrophic warming alarmist stuff or climate change denier stuff, nothing much in between to get to just the facts.

Hard to NOT find the emotional sensationalism part of the topic; darned if you do believe it or don't.lol

You are correct, while one artical claims greenhouse gases and over population for the climate warming, another artical claims it just a planetary cycle of cooling and heating that can last decades at a time.

[rwfromkansas]

I was a climate denier for a long time, and I still think it's exaggerated.

But, it's hard to deny there is warming going on now. If I had to guess, it would be a combination of stuff, not only people but also cyclical changes. The climate changes a lot naturally, with a multitude of factors playing into it.

I hope the predictions for Texas in the future prove false.

Based on NOAA data, the 2018 average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the twentieth-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), making it the fourth-warmest year on record, and the
Global temperature hasn't been cooler than the twentieth-century average since 1976.

Since the start of the twenty-first century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times with Nine out of the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 2005. From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every 3 years.

On a smaller scale the top 8 of the top 10 warmest years (annual Temperature) on record for Dallas/Fort Worth have occurred between 1998 & 2017 with the top 3 warmest 2012. 2016. and 2017. The last time we scored a top 10 coolest year was 1983 (#3)

It's not any better when looking at the top 10 warmest for seasonal records with at least 4 of the top 10 in each of the four seasons occuring since 1999, and as for a coolest top 10 record since 1999? 1, Winter of 2009-2010 ranks #7

Annual Precipitation for DFW 4 of the top 8 wettest years have been since 2000, while there have been only 1 Driest (2005) and 1 Snowiest (2009-2010)

Is Man to blame for our planets increased warming? or is it just a Planetary cycle of heating and cooling that spans decades of time?

Could be a combination of both.

But that stated, it's so hard to google this topic and not have it bias/slant one way or another. I've tried. I've found either catastrophic warming alarmist stuff or climate change denier stuff, nothing much in between to get to just the facts.

Hard to NOT find the emotional sensationalism part of the topic; darned if you do believe it or don't.lol

You are correct, while one artical claims greenhouse gases and over population for the climate warming, another artical claims it just a planetary cycle of cooling and heating that can last decades at a time.

[dhweather]

NOW WE'RE TALKING!!!! At 372 hours, the 12Z GFS HAS A CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!!






NOTE: The margin of error for any model 372 hours out is astronomical, and very unlikely to happen.

[CaptinCrunch]

NOW WE'RE TALKING!!!! At 372 hours, the 12Z GFS HAS A CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!!


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019093012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_62.png



NOTE: The margin of error for any model 372 hours out is astronomical, and very unlikely to happen.

Better let Alabama know just FYI

[Ntxw]

Based on NOAA data, the 2018 average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the twentieth-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), making it the fourth-warmest year on record, and the
Global temperature hasn't been cooler than the twentieth-century average since 1976.

Since the start of the twenty-first century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times with Nine out of the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 2005. From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every 3 years.

On a smaller scale the top 8 of the top 10 warmest years (annual Temperature) on record for Dallas/Fort Worth have occurred between 1998 & 2017 with the top 3 warmest 2012. 2016. and 2017. The last time we scored a top 10 coolest year was 1983 (#3)

It's not any better when looking at the top 10 warmest for seasonal records with at least 4 of the top 10 in each of the four seasons occuring since 1999, and as for a coolest top 10 record since 1999? 1, Winter of 2009-2010 ranks #7

Annual Precipitation for DFW 4 of the top 8 wettest years have been since 2000, while there have been only 1 Driest (2005) and 1 Snowiest (2009-2010)

Is Man to blame for our planets increased warming? or is it just a Planetary cycle of heating and cooling that spans decades of time?

Could be a combination of both.

But that stated, it's so hard to google this topic and not have it bias/slant one way or another. I've tried. I've found either catastrophic warming alarmist stuff or climate change denier stuff, nothing much in between to get to just the facts.

Hard to NOT find the emotional sensationalism part of the topic; darned if you do believe it or don't.lol

We don't need to believe why it is happening. It is happening and the records are reflecting it, most of us are experiencing it in our every day/week/month/year sensible weather. Warm records (for every season) at the various sites across Texas overwhelm the cooler ones, in particular the last decade (on top of the last decade which had more than the prior). Heavy rains (in records) is also falling at a faster pace the past 3 decades. Most of DFW's top wettest years have occured since 1990 (including top 3) with warmer, more moist tropical like seasons.

[JDawg512]

As someone who had spent years studying climate the vast majority of evidence points to humans. How can one say we are not able to affect our world when all you have to do is look out a window and visibly see how we can alter our world by building cities, highways, dams, bridges. We can take down mountains with mining, we can change environments with farmland/ranchland, clear forests. Even in elementary school you learn about the greenhouse effect.
We can see the results of a runaway greenhouse planet in Venus. What is gasoline made of? When we drive, what comes out of our exhausts? Times that by a couple of billion. What comes out of factory exhaust? When forest fires burn what is released? When methane pockets across the Boreal and arctic regions release what is the result? You think all that just disappears into nothing or escapes into space? Think again.

I liken climate change deniers to flat earthers. Doesn't matter if the evidence is right in front of their face. They will deny it till the day they die. Well the majority of humanity has finally woken up, unfortunately it's too late to change the outcome. We are in for drastic changes. BUT that doesn't mean that we shouldn't change our ways because the difference is a planet being 3 degrees warmer or a planet much warmer than that.

This is reality. This isn't something that may happen in the future, we are smack dab in the middle of now, and have been for awhile. Sure, there are outside factors that also play a part but it can no longer be denied that we are the main cause in this most recent warmup.

There has been a lot of pushback about climate change even being brought up in this forum in the past. Its partially why I don't post as often. But climate and weather go hand in hand. You can't discuss one without the other. I think it is time for this discussion in a constructive and engaging manner. If not in this thread specifically then a dedicated thread of it's own. Our children and grandchildren will be worse off than we are now. If you are in your 30s-50s, you will see more extreme and more "unusual weather" in your lifetimes. It goes without saying the younger generations will deal with the consequences. It's why we saw millions of young people around the world march and a strong 16 year old girl admonish world leaders at the UN a couple of weeks ago.

Now I will go back to trying to stay cool and work on a new rain device that I hope will wet this parched land even for the relief to keep from burning up..

[CaptinCrunch]

As someone who had spent years studying climate the vast majority of evidence points to humans. How can one say we are not able to affect our world when all you have to do is look out a window and visibly see how we can alter our world by building cities, highways, dams, bridges. We can take down mountains with mining, we can change environments with farmland/ranchland, clear forests. Even in elementary school you learn about the greenhouse effect.
We can see the results of a runaway greenhouse planet in Venus. What is gasoline made of? When we drive, what comes out of our exhausts? Times that by a couple of billion. What comes out of factory exhaust? When forest fires burn what is released? When methane pockets across the Boreal and arctic regions release what is the result? You think all that just disappears into nothing or escapes into space? Think again.

I liken climate change deniers to flat earthers. Doesn't matter if the evidence is right in front of their face. They will deny it till the day they die. Well the majority of humanity has finally woken up, unfortunately it's too late to change the outcome. We are in for drastic changes. BUT that doesn't mean that we shouldn't change our ways because the difference is a planet being 3 degrees warmer or a planet much warmer than that.

This is reality. This isn't something that may happen in the future, we are smack dab in the middle of now, and have been for awhile. Sure, there are outside factors that also play a part but it can no longer be denied that we are the main cause in this most recent warmup.

There has been a lot of pushback about climate change even being brought up in this forum in the past. Its partially why I don't post as often. But climate and weather go hand in hand. You can't discuss one without the other. I think it is time for this discussion in a constructive and engaging manner. If not in this thread specifically then a dedicated thread of it's own. Our children and grandchildren will be worse off than we are now. If you are in your 30s-50s, you will see more extreme and more "unusual weather" in your lifetimes. It goes without saying the younger generations will deal with the consequences. It's why we saw millions of young people around the world march and a strong 16 year old girl admonish world leaders at the UN a couple of weeks ago.

Now I will go back to trying to stay cool and work on a new rain device that I hope will wet this parched land even for the relief to keep from burning up..

Just add to that statement....Hurricane Lorenzo is the northernmost and easternmost recorded Category 5 hurricane on record.

[Haris]

Preach Jdawg.

[cheezyWXguy]

Based on NOAA data, the 2018 average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the twentieth-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), making it the fourth-warmest year on record, and the
Global temperature hasn't been cooler than the twentieth-century average since 1976.

Since the start of the twenty-first century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times with Nine out of the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 2005. From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every 3 years.

On a smaller scale the top 8 of the top 10 warmest years (annual Temperature) on record for Dallas/Fort Worth have occurred between 1998 & 2017 with the top 3 warmest 2012. 2016. and 2017. The last time we scored a top 10 coolest year was 1983 (#3)

It's not any better when looking at the top 10 warmest for seasonal records with at least 4 of the top 10 in each of the four seasons occuring since 1999, and as for a coolest top 10 record since 1999? 1, Winter of 2009-2010 ranks #7

Annual Precipitation for DFW 4 of the top 8 wettest years have been since 2000, while there have been only 1 Driest (2005) and 1 Snowiest (2009-2010)

Is Man to blame for our planets increased warming? or is it just a Planetary cycle of heating and cooling that spans decades of time?

Could be a combination of both.

But that stated, it's so hard to google this topic and not have it bias/slant one way or another. I've tried. I've found either catastrophic warming alarmist stuff or climate change denier stuff, nothing much in between to get to just the facts.

Hard to NOT find the emotional sensationalism part of the topic; darned if you do believe it or don't.lol

Search the channel Potholer54 on YouTube and watch his climate change series. This is the closest you’ll get to an informed perspective without emotion or political bias

[weatherdude1108]

Based on NOAA data, the 2018 average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the twentieth-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), making it the fourth-warmest year on record, and the
Global temperature hasn't been cooler than the twentieth-century average since 1976.

Since the start of the twenty-first century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times with Nine out of the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 2005. From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every 3 years.

On a smaller scale the top 8 of the top 10 warmest years (annual Temperature) on record for Dallas/Fort Worth have occurred between 1998 & 2017 with the top 3 warmest 2012. 2016. and 2017. The last time we scored a top 10 coolest year was 1983 (#3)

It's not any better when looking at the top 10 warmest for seasonal records with at least 4 of the top 10 in each of the four seasons occuring since 1999, and as for a coolest top 10 record since 1999? 1, Winter of 2009-2010 ranks #7

Annual Precipitation for DFW 4 of the top 8 wettest years have been since 2000, while there have been only 1 Driest (2005) and 1 Snowiest (2009-2010)

Is Man to blame for our planets increased warming? or is it just a Planetary cycle of heating and cooling that spans decades of time?

Could be a combination of both.

But that stated, it's so hard to google this topic and not have it bias/slant one way or another. I've tried. I've found either catastrophic warming alarmist stuff or climate change denier stuff, nothing much in between to get to just the facts.

Hard to NOT find the emotional sensationalism part of the topic; darned if you do believe it or don't.lol

Search the channel Potholer54 on YouTube and watch his climate change series. This is the closest you’ll get to an informed perspective without emotion or political bias

Thanks! I'll check that out.