2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#941 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:50 pm

European is complete opposite of the GFS with higher pressures.

#942 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:02 pm

SFLcane wrote:European is complete opposite of the GFS with higher pressures.

https://i.imgur.com/poEENis.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/J2Msyx1.jpg

Could also be Euro high pressure bias. CMC actually agrees with the GFS on lower pressures.

#943 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:19 pm

EPS finally showing some members in the NW carib. EPS mean does look more like GFS with lower pressure in the Carib.

#944 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:28 pm

All in all for now in my opinion until the deterministic Euro shows something then it could very well be GFS fantasy.

#945 Postby **toad strangler** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:30 pm

SFLcane wrote:EPS finally showing some members in the NW carib. EPS mean does look more like GFS with lower pressure in the Carib.

https://i.imgur.com/0lvOviG.jpg

There is that Columbian Low

Ubuntwo · #946 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:54 pm

So far the 18z GFS develops the wave but keeps it pretty broad and weak through hour 300

#947 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:21 pm

GFS with another major hurricane heading north that’s always 12 days away. :lol:

#948 Postby **jfk08c** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:21 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:So far the 18z GFS develops the wave but keeps it pretty broad and weak through hour 300

Ends up spinning up into a pretty formidable system long term. Still way too far out to know anything but that's about 7 runs in a row that the GFS has hinted at a system around mid October. This one forms in Hebert's box so people in Florida and the gulf coast should keep an eye on the news the next couple weeks

#949 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:30 pm

If something does form it looks formidable for someone

#950 Postby **toad strangler** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:42 pm

The end game has stayed in loonyville 384 hour territory but genesis has been creeping up. GFS all by itself is the story. For now. But WOW what a monster depicted...

#951 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:52 pm

toad strangler wrote:The end game has stayed in loonyville 384 hour territory but genesis has been creeping up. GFS all by itself is the story. For now. But WOW what a monster depicted...

That is because the other models only go out to 240 hours. We are right on the edge of where the timeframe would come in so we can see if other models have it. I think the GFS is sniffing this out and while the model can spin out phantom canes in this part of the world in October, I think this is one of those times the GFS has it right.

How the GFS ends with it moving slowly north:

#952 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:59 pm

This is still a big stretch. 18z GFS doesn’t show it even barely beginning until 246 hrs and it goes wild from there. Not saying it’s wrong, but....

sma10 · #953 Postby **sma10** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:40 pm

I cannot believe how large this storm is, as depicted lol

TBH, it looks even larger than Lorenzo.

This board would go crazy

#954 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:42 pm

Wave that could spark development in the Western Caribbean in 10+ days looks to be entering the scene. Gulp :eek:

This wave is so vigorous that the Euro and some of the 18Z GFS ensembles show some development in the deep Atlantic MDR in October! :double:

#955 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:47 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wave that could spark development in the Western Caribbean in 10+ days looks to be entering the scene. Gulp

This wave is so vigorous that the Euro and some of the 18Z GFS ensembles show some development in the deep Atlantic MDR in October!

https://i.postimg.cc/cJ2HvQ8v/goes16-ir-eatl-201909302245.jpg

Seems like the euro could be right about it developing quick and slowing down or turning.

#956 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:51 pm

could be but the Euro also shows a strong 500MB ridge to the north of the islands which should drive it west. This wave is impressive. Loop:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Ubuntwo · #957 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:52 pm

SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Wave that could spark development in the Western Caribbean in 10+ days looks to be entering the scene. Gulp

This wave is so vigorous that the Euro and some of the 18Z GFS ensembles show some development in the deep Atlantic MDR in October!

https://i.postimg.cc/cJ2HvQ8v/goes16-ir-eatl-201909302245.jpg

Seems like the euro could be right about it developing quick and slowing down or turning.

Yeah and typically if waves develop quicker they are more likely to be tugged poleward by troughing. Of course, this is pretty far out and the setup is basically changing every run.

#958 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:05 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: could be but the Euro also shows a strong 500MB ridge to the north of the islands which should drive it west. This wave is impressive. Loop:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

If that puppy makes it across in October it’ll be amazing. As James Bond said after throwing the toaster in the bathtub, “shocking”.

#959 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:20 pm

https://twitter.com/weatherprof/status/1178835490839158784

#960 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:08 pm

SFLcane wrote:https://twitter.com/weatherprof/status/1178835490839158784

I get Jeff's point but then again, the Legacy GFS hasn't actually been lighting up the tropics with spurious development lately. Furthermore, the Legacy GFS is more or less "on-board" with the "new improved" GFS in depicting long range W. Caribbean development right now. What exactly does that even mean? I'm not sure. Maybe the old GFS is not quite as dysfunctional as many have felt during recent years. OR..... perhaps the old GFS AND the new GFS both suck :lol:

I think it's closer to the former then the latter but I think the jury is still out on that topic.

2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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