2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[sma10]

Yeesh that last frame on the GFS has it centered near Grand Cayman ~400 miles from Miami. Already 30mph winds encroaching coastal Dade county.

[sma10]

https://twitter.com/weatherprof/status/1178835490839158784

Yeah, who knows if the GEFS is out to lunch or not, but like 17 out of the 20 members have a US landfalling hurricane in the long range, which is a crazy high signal

[GeneratorPower]

Yeesh that last frame on the GFS has it centered near Grand Cayman ~400 miles from Miami. Already 30mph winds encroaching coastal Dade county.

What run and time frame are you talking about?

[Hurricaneman]

Yeesh that last frame on the GFS has it centered near Grand Cayman ~400 miles from Miami. Already 30mph winds encroaching coastal Dade county.

What run and time frame are you talking about?

I’m thinking looking at the last several runs the 18zGFS 384hr verbatim

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is moving the wave in West Africa quicker this run at 144, and is a bit more amplified but moving too quick to develop, have a feeling this run will also develop in the western Caribbean

[sma10]

Yeesh that last frame on the GFS has it centered near Grand Cayman ~400 miles from Miami. Already 30mph winds encroaching coastal Dade county.

What run and time frame are you talking about?

Specifically, the 384hr position of the 18z run. Obviously fantasy, but the general idea is: large storm possible, somewhere

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS shows cyclogenesis at 264hrs off the NE tip of Honduras. Cyclogenesis is coming closer in time from the GFS, let’s see if the 0zEuro starts to show something

Edit: Landfall in Belize as a possible depression

[Ubuntwo]

At hr300 0z gfs pushes a 1002mb cyclone into Belize. Earlier genesis.

Peaks at 1001mb and at hr318 looks like it gets shoved S deeper inland into Central America?

[Hurricaneman]

The only thing we know is there might be something in the western Caribbean late next week and track and intensity is unknown

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS spawns two systems in the W carib, one from the TW around h 264 which becomes a TS that's shoved into central america. The other is much later in the run and I think associated with the same wave?

[SFLcane]

Looks like the gfs is about to give up the idea of hurricane in the nw Carib sea. Last 2 runs keeps it buried into CA and never really does much. The e-pac looks active

[toad strangler]

Looks like the gfs is about to give up the idea of hurricane in the nw Carib sea. Last 2 runs keeps it buried into CA and never really does much. The e-pac looks active

Well I certainly didn't expect the same look every run this far out but it's not moving up so I'm less of a believer than I was earlier.

[wxman57]

Looks like a typical phantom storm. Development is always 14-15 days out. That's the area to watch for late-season development, though.

[rbaker55]

Yeesh that last frame on the GFS has it centered near Grand Cayman ~400 miles from Miami. Already 30mph winds encroaching coastal Dade county.

That is from the pressure gradient between low pressure in the western Caribbean and the big high pressure to the north

[Frank2]

Looks like a typical phantom storm. Development is always 14-15 days out. That's the area to watch for late-season development, though.

This morning nothing on the 06Z GFS but the mid latitude fronts are strong enough. Maybe we're done for this year. Almost done anyway...

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like a typical phantom storm. Development is always 14-15 days out. That's the area to watch for late-season development, though.

This morning nothing on the 06Z GFS but the mid latitude fronts are strong enough. Maybe we're done for this year. Almost done anyway...

Nothing? 6z has a cat 1 into Nicaragua that starts forming at hr 252. Yeah it’s not into the US but development keeps moving further into range,

[toad strangler]

Looks like a typical phantom storm. Development is always 14-15 days out. That's the area to watch for late-season development, though.

This morning nothing on the 06Z GFS but the mid latitude fronts are strong enough. Maybe we're done for this year. Almost done anyway...

Nothing? 6z has a cat 1 into Nicaragua that starts forming at hr 252. Yeah it’s not into the US but development keeps moving further into range,

Yeah I don't know what he was looking at but development is obviously still there. BUT no move up in time. It's likely a phantom.

[Hurricaneman]

Actually looking at the 6zGFS it’s not that far from being a much bigger problem, if that development and movement is 25 miles farther northeast that could be a major hurricane so I wouldn’t take my eyes off yet until it is completely dropped, the Canadian also has this feature but until the Euro in some form has it I’m not too concerned yet

[blp]

The GFS appears to be having its typical issues even on this new version but the one area that has general agreement on the models is strong wave that will exit Africa in 48hrs. All the models have that wave modeled and crossing the MDR under a strong High. They have been showing this on several runs. The CMC and GFS have it reaching Caribbean while the Euro is slower and has it approaching the Lesser Antilles in 240hr. I think this is the most realistic scenario for the next couple of weeks for development is if the wave makes it across the MDR to find favorable conditions in the W. Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS being it’s old self again, what’s new?

In my opinion if we don’t see anything in the Western Caribbean in October or even November the season might be just about over as the MDR should be shutting down and fronts hopefully will start progressing down towards the Gulf of Mexico.