Texas Fall 2019

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, eyeballing some convection to my south. Hoping we can quench some earth, and COOL things off.

[weatherdude1108]

I think downtown Austin killed the convection. Thanks a lot downtown!lol

Anyway. Maybe some below normal temps next week(?). Need rain though. So much for the climatologically second wettest month of the year (September). Another one come and gone.

C'est la vie.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
321 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Isolated to scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms will
continue across south central Texas through this afternoon. We should
see a decrease in activity with the loss of daytime heating. However,
as the low-level jet develops after midnight, we expect some showers
to re-develop across most of the region. The hi-res models continue
to show coverage will be a little higher over portions of the western
Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, including the Rocksprings
and Kerrville areas.

We should see some additional showers and thunderstorms develop
across the region on Tuesday. With moisture levels slightly higher
across the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau, we should
see higher rain chances across the above mentioned areas.
Temperatures should also remain above normal tomorrow with highs in
the mid 80s in the Hill Country to mid and upper 90s across the Rio
Grande plains and coastal plains.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
For the middle portion of this week, we will see a continuation of
above normal temperatures along with a low chance (generally 20-30%)
of showers and thunderstorms across most of the region. A weak cold
front may make a run toward the Hill Country late Thursday. At this
time, we do not expect any significant cooling behind the front, but
could see a slight drop in temperatures for a few lucky folks in the
Hill Country. The front should weaken fairly quickly on Friday.
Meanwhile, an upper trough will be moving into the northern Rockies
late this week. The tail end of this trough is then expected to drop
into the central and southern plains states late Sunday into early
Monday. As of now, this pattern remains favorable to usher a fairly
strong cold front into the region early next week. As of now, it
appears the front will move through early Monday. We may finally have
a decent chance for seeing temperatures at or below climatological
normals early next week.

[hriverajr]

Got rain at my house... .07 yay

[bubba hotep]

Come on people, time to get hype! 12z Euro showing a 67/42 for DFW

[Brent]

Come on people, time to get hype! 12z Euro showing a 67/42 for DFW

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019093012/ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

I am so ready let's go

Good riddance

[Ntxw]

One more week of summer to go...then a big sigh of RELIEF!

[starsfan65]

One more week of summer to go...then a big sigh of RELIEF!

2 more days of summer!!

[Brent]

Sunday the summer ends hopefully til next June... beyond that the Euro/GFS have several days with highs in the 70s. Euro is colder at night with lows flirting with 40s while the GFS is closer to 60, but either way still a huge improvement over our lows in the upper 70s

also DFW gets an inch of rain late Sunday into early Monday on the Euro

[somethingfunny]

Based on NOAA data, the 2018 average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the twentieth-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), making it the fourth-warmest year on record, and the
Global temperature hasn't been cooler than the twentieth-century average since 1976. Since the start of the twenty-first century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times with Nine out of the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 2005. From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every 3 years. According to the American Meteorological Society's State of the Climate in 2018, 2018 came in as the fourth warmest year on record in all four of the major global temperature datasets. Only 2015, 2016, and 2017 were warmer. The warmth occurred in the absence of El Niño, which is usually a factor in extreme global warmth.

On a smaller scale the top 8 of the top 10 warmest years (annual Temperature) on record for Dallas/Fort Worth have occurred between 1998 & 2017 with the top 3 warmest 2012. 2016. and 2017. The last time we scored a top 10 coolest year was 1983 (#3)

It's not any better when looking at the top 10 warmest for seasonal records with at least 4 of the top 10 in each of the four seasons occuring since 1999, and as for a coolest top 10 record since 1999? 1, Winter of 2009-2010 ranks #7

Annual Precipitation for DFW 4 of the top 8 wettest years have been since 2000, while there have been only 1 Driest (2005) and 1 Snowiest (2009-2010)

Is Man to blame for our planets increased warming? or is it just a Planetary cycle of heating and cooling that spans decades of time?

This is more about the rapid expansion of concrete-covered terrain surrounding DFW over the past few decades. The urban heat island will keep getting worse here with low temperatures over ten degrees higher than surrounding rural areas oftentimes, and high temperatures to match and CAPE-filled updrafts affecting local precipitation patterns as well. But DFW's example is evidence of a local climate change rather than a regional climate change. To find evidence for our regional climate you'll have to find historical data for a rural reporting site that has been well maintained with high standards. I'm not sure what those reporting sites would be however.

[Ntxw]

Based on NOAA data, the 2018 average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the twentieth-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), making it the fourth-warmest year on record, and the
Global temperature hasn't been cooler than the twentieth-century average since 1976. Since the start of the twenty-first century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times with Nine out of the 10 warmest years on record having occurred since 2005. From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every 3 years. According to the American Meteorological Society's State of the Climate in 2018, 2018 came in as the fourth warmest year on record in all four of the major global temperature datasets. Only 2015, 2016, and 2017 were warmer. The warmth occurred in the absence of El Niño, which is usually a factor in extreme global warmth.

On a smaller scale the top 8 of the top 10 warmest years (annual Temperature) on record for Dallas/Fort Worth have occurred between 1998 & 2017 with the top 3 warmest 2012. 2016. and 2017. The last time we scored a top 10 coolest year was 1983 (#3)

It's not any better when looking at the top 10 warmest for seasonal records with at least 4 of the top 10 in each of the four seasons occuring since 1999, and as for a coolest top 10 record since 1999? 1, Winter of 2009-2010 ranks #7

Annual Precipitation for DFW 4 of the top 8 wettest years have been since 2000, while there have been only 1 Driest (2005) and 1 Snowiest (2009-2010)

Is Man to blame for our planets increased warming? or is it just a Planetary cycle of heating and cooling that spans decades of time?

This is more about the rapid expansion of concrete-covered terrain surrounding DFW over the past few decades. The urban heat island will keep getting worse here with low temperatures over ten degrees higher than surrounding rural areas oftentimes, and high temperatures to match and CAPE-filled updrafts affecting local precipitation patterns as well. But DFW's example is evidence of a local climate change rather than a regional climate change. To find evidence for our regional climate you'll have to find historical data for a rural reporting site that has been well maintained with high standards. I'm not sure what those reporting sites would be however.

These heavier concentrated precipitation events is not just at DFW. In fact over the past decade or so the areas surrounding DFW (often rural) have received even higher amounts. DFW airport is often the low to mid end in the extreme events. The hadley cells over the tropical oceans are expanding. It brings tropical like air masses further north, more often, with longer staying power.

[weatherdude1108]

Hoping and praying for a 180 in the rain and temperatures starting in October! In 2011, October is when the 100s finally shut down here in central Texas, and it got wet and cool.




September 2019 was the hottest September on record at San Antonio, Austin, and Del Rio. It was also quite dry across most of the region.

[weatherdude1108]

343
FXUS64 KEWX 010900
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
The low level jet has cranked up streamer showers again across South
Central Texas into the Hill Country early this morning. The showers
and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms linger though mid morning,
then gradually dissipate by midday as the low level jet weakens. A
drier airmass rotating around the Subtropical Ridge overhead leads
to no chances of showers and thunderstorms with heating. However,
cannot rule out an isolated one or two near the Coastal Plains each
afternoon. Although the low level jet cranks up streamer showers
again overnight into Wednesday morning, coverage will be less due to
the drier airmass. Mid summer like temperatures continue as we begin
early October.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
A series of upper level troughs serve to gradually weaken and shove
the Subtropical Ridge south of our area late week into the weekend.
The troughs force cold fronts south into Texas, however, they stall
north of our area. Regardless, temperatures drop a little as the
thermal ridge retreats, though remain more like late Summer. A brief
surge of moisture may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to
parts of our area Thursday afternoon through Friday.

Models have developed a consistency and consensus on bringing the
first cold front of the season across South Central Texas and the
Hill Country Sunday night into Monday. Moisture convergence and lift
along the front will allow for showers and thunderstorms. Expect a
breezy day with temperatures falling to near early October normals.

[SoupBone]

Sunday the summer ends hopefully til next June... beyond that the Euro/GFS have several days with highs in the 70s. Euro is colder at night with lows flirting with 40s while the GFS is closer to 60, but either way still a huge improvement over our lows in the upper 70s

also DFW gets an inch of rain late Sunday into early Monday on the Euro

I just hope a little bit of coolness makes its way to Houston. You guys in Dallas-Fort Worth can't keep it bottled up there.

[Cpv17]

Sunday the summer ends hopefully til next June... beyond that the Euro/GFS have several days with highs in the 70s. Euro is colder at night with lows flirting with 40s while the GFS is closer to 60, but either way still a huge improvement over our lows in the upper 70s

also DFW gets an inch of rain late Sunday into early Monday on the Euro

I just hope a little bit of coolness makes its way to Houston. You guys in Dallas-Fort Worth can't keep it bottled up there.

I wouldn’t expect much of a cool down for southeast TX.

[dhweather]

Bummer man, the GFS doesn't have the cat 5 in the gulf any more at 372 hours. Shocking, I say, shocking.

[dhweather]

[Haris]

OMG!! 7.9F departure at Mabry.

It was 7.5F at the airport.

[Nederlander]

Sunday the summer ends hopefully til next June... beyond that the Euro/GFS have several days with highs in the 70s. Euro is colder at night with lows flirting with 40s while the GFS is closer to 60, but either way still a huge improvement over our lows in the upper 70s

also DFW gets an inch of rain late Sunday into early Monday on the Euro

I just hope a little bit of coolness makes its way to Houston. You guys in Dallas-Fort Worth can't keep it bottled up there.

I wouldn’t expect much of a cool down for southeast TX.

Why do you say that? Everything I have seen is showing upper 70s for highs and low 60s for lows starting Tuesday. That’s quite a cool down.

[Cpv17]

I just hope a little bit of coolness makes its way to Houston. You guys in Dallas-Fort Worth can't keep it bottled up there.

I wouldn’t expect much of a cool down for southeast TX.

Why do you say that? Everything I have seen is showing upper 70s for highs and low 60s for lows starting Tuesday. That’s quite a cool down.

It’s still a week out. Don’t get your hopes up. Models will break your heart.

[Cpv17]

Man, today’s CPC forecast is ugly