2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

Latest Euro keeps the wave weak now and heading west in the Caribbean. If it makes it to the Western Caribbean, I am pretty confident it will develop it there.

The thing is if the Euro picks up on it then I will start to pay attention but until then we monitor it until either the GFS completely drops it and it’s a phantom or the Euro comes aboard and things get real interesting

[Emmett_Brown]

60-70% probability for a TW leaving Africa. Whether it gets in the carib is up for question.

https://i.imgur.com/ks5wjBt.jpg

According to this image, Euro ensemble is bullish on GOM dev of a TC in the next 2-5 days. Considering that many globals were late to detect genesis recently, this is a pretty strong indicator in my opinion, even if the Op Euro run shows little development.

[LarryWx]

Wow, a lot of activity near the end of the new GEFS ensemble run (@308 hours). Could be a phantom case, but development already begins around 240-252 hours so we should start to see more and more of it in EC and other models if it's more than a GEFS fluke. It's been pushed back about 1 day compared to how GEFS looked a few days ago, but we're nearing the breaking point where we'll finally find out if the other models are on board.

https://i.imgur.com/PKgcND7.png

Yes, indeed, it is very active. However, this is much more than a day behind what was being shown last Friday’s 18Z run, however, when on 10/12 the GEFS had a number of hurricanes already in the W Caribbean and in a threatening position for the CONUS. The 6Z run from today looks similar, in the W Caribbean, but instead of for 18Z on 10/12 it is for 0Z on 10/18 meaning just over 5 days later. Keep in mind today’s 6Z run is a run produced 4.5 days later than that Fri at 18Z run. In other words, the big CONUS threat on today’s 6Z GEFS is as far out in time as was the big threat on the 18Z Fri run. Until if/when stops slipping and/or if/when the EPS hints at a legit threat, I’m not believing it:

[SFLcane]

Wow, a lot of activity near the end of the new GEFS ensemble run (@308 hours). Could be a phantom case, but development already begins around 240-252 hours so we should start to see more and more of it in EC and other models if it's more than a GEFS fluke. It's been pushed back about 1 day compared to how GEFS looked a few days ago, but we're nearing the breaking point where we'll finally find out if the other models are on board.

https://i.imgur.com/PKgcND7.png

Yes, indeed, it is very active. However, this is much more than a day behind what was being shown last Friday’s 18Z run, however, when on 10/12 the GEFS had a number of hurricanes already in the W Caribbean and in a threatening position for the CONUS. The 6Z run from today looks similar, in the W Caribbean, but instead of for 18Z on 10/12 it is for 0Z on 10/18 meaning just over 5 days later. Keep in mind today’s 6Z run is a run produced 4.5 days later than that Fri at 18Z run. In other words, the big CONUS threat on today’s 6Z GEFS is as far out in time as was the big threat on the 18Z Fri run. Until if/when stops slipping and/or if/when the EPS hints at a legit threat, I’m not believing it:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019100206/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_64.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019092718/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_61.png

Hi Larry, EPS is now showing a few TC'S in the NW carib though still long range. Lets see if that increases in later runs

[WeatherEmperor]

Wow, a lot of activity near the end of the new GEFS ensemble run (@308 hours). Could be a phantom case, but development already begins around 240-252 hours so we should start to see more and more of it in EC and other models if it's more than a GEFS fluke. It's been pushed back about 1 day compared to how GEFS looked a few days ago, but we're nearing the breaking point where we'll finally find out if the other models are on board.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/PKl]

Yes, indeed, it is very active. However, this is much more than a day behind what was being shown last Friday’s 18Z run, however, when on 10/12 the GEFS had a number of hurricanes already in the W Caribbean and in a threatening position for the CONUS. The 6Z run from today looks similar, in the W Caribbean, but instead of for 18Z on 10/12 it is for 0Z on 10/18 meaning just over 5 days later. Keep in mind today’s 6Z run is a run produced 4.5 days later than that Fri at 18Z run. In other words, the big CONUS threat on today’s 6Z GEFS is as far out in time as was the big threat on the 18Z Fri run. Until if/when stops slipping and/or if/when the EPS hints at a legit threat, I’m not believing it:

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019100206/gfs-ememb_lurl]

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019092718/gfs-emrl]

Hi Larry, EPS is now showing a few TC'S in the NW carib though still long range. Lets see if that increases in later runs

Hey SFLcane,

Are you able to post an image of the EPS?

Thanks

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS showing the seminal stages of genesis in the SW Carib day 10. Insists the CAG will get this going which is in line with climo. Timeframe seems to be coming in. Was out over 300 hours before.

[Bhuggs]

I just don’t see the major “it’s not moving up in time” that keeps getting stated over and over again with the gfs. The 12z run clearly shows the vorticity starting to get together at hour 240. 5 days ago it was showing that at 384 ish. That to me shows a clear difference with the modeled storm moving up in time as it should. Also, if my memory serves correct, the old gfs phantoms would show up for a few runs then be gone, we are going on 5 days now if it showings.


Finally, I do not think the wave has been the catalyst for this modeled storm, and it looks clear as day here. If that develops, I believe that would be a different entity than what gfs has been showing.

This is a new gfs, not the old one. It has not shown phantoms all year like it used to. I say we stop posting “it’s a phatom” posts every 3 posts and just keep an eye on it as we would any other long range modeled storm

[SFLcane]

Yes, indeed, it is very active. However, this is much more than a day behind what was being shown last Friday’s 18Z run, however, when on 10/12 the GEFS had a number of hurricanes already in the W Caribbean and in a threatening position for the CONUS. The 6Z run from today looks similar, in the W Caribbean, but instead of for 18Z on 10/12 it is for 0Z on 10/18 meaning just over 5 days later. Keep in mind today’s 6Z run is a run produced 4.5 days later than that Fri at 18Z run. In other words, the big CONUS threat on today’s 6Z GEFS is as far out in time as was the big threat on the 18Z Fri run. Until if/when stops slipping and/or if/when the EPS hints at a legit threat, I’m not believing it:

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019100206/gfs-ememb_lurl]

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019092718/gfs-emrl]

Hi Larry, EPS is now showing a few TC'S in the NW carib though still long range. Lets see if that increases in later runs

Hey SFLcane,

Are you able to post an image of the EPS?

Thanks

Check your PM.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hi Larry, EPS is now showing a few TC'S in the NW carib though still long range. Lets see if that increases in later runs

Hey SFLcane,

Are you able to post an image of the EPS?

Thanks

Check your PM.

Thank you so much. Much appreciated

[toad strangler]

I agree that this now seems not to be triggered by the wave we have been talking about. The vorts coming off the mainland starting this process seem spurious to me. Also, although genesis has been moving up since Friday or so the end game hour HAS NOT. That's what is weird to me more than anything.

[LarryWx]

I just don’t see the major “it’s not moving up in time” that keeps getting stated over and over again with the gfs. The 12z run clearly shows the vorticity starting to get together at hour 240. 5 days ago it was showing that at 384 ish. That to me shows a clear difference with the modeled storm moving up in time as it should. Also, if my memory serves correct, the old gfs phantoms would show up for a few runs then be gone, we are going on 5 days now if it showings.


Finally, I do not think the wave has been the catalyst for this modeled storm, and it looks clear as day here. If that develops, I believe that would be a different entity than what gfs has been showing.

This is a new gfs, not the old one. It has not shown phantoms all year like it used to. I say we stop posting “it’s a phatom” posts every 3 posts and just keep an eye on it as we would any other long range modeled storm

I’ve been posting about the GEFS, not the GFS. The GEFS is based on an older version of the GFS and that’s clearly been slipping as per the post I just made showing the near identical maps in the W Caribbean for 0Z on 10/18 on today’s 6Z GEFS vs what the 18Z GEFS run from 4.5 days earlier showing about the same in the W Caribbean as of 18Z on 10/12.

Note that this is not at all related to what may or may not form within the next few days or so.

[gatorcane]

Bad run for Florida on the 12Z GFS, thankfully in the super long range but I do think Florida will need to play close attention to this.

[toad strangler]

I agree that this now seems not to be triggered by the wave we have been talking about. The vorts coming off the mainland starting this process seem spurious to me. Also, although genesis has been moving up since Friday or so the end game hour HAS NOT. That's what is weird to me more than anything.

No sooner did I knock the late hours of these runs the 12z GFS moves that up significantly.

[Bhuggs]

Tons of different scenarios with this modeled storm IF it forms. The gfs is just showing us all of them lol. Understandably so considering we are talking 240-384 hours

[Blown Away]

12z GFS picks up on the low in @10 days and brings major hurricane into GOM through 14 days...

[brghteys1216]

Well that’s a scary run of the GFS. Pretty much rides I-4 through Florida

[SFLcane]

If something forms in the NW Caribbean in October climo says Cuba or Florida.

[LarryWx]

I just don’t see the major “it’s not moving up in time” that keeps getting stated over and over again with the gfs. The 12z run clearly shows the vorticity starting to get together at hour 240. 5 days ago it was showing that at 384 ish. That to me shows a clear difference with the modeled storm moving up in time as it should. Also, if my memory serves correct, the old gfs phantoms would show up for a few runs then be gone, we are going on 5 days now if it showings.


Finally, I do not think the wave has been the catalyst for this modeled storm, and it looks clear as day here. If that develops, I believe that would be a different entity than what gfs has been showing.

This is a new gfs, not the old one. It has not shown phantoms all year like it used to. I say we stop posting “it’s a phatom” posts every 3 posts and just keep an eye on it as we would any other long range modeled storm

This is tricky imo because it depends on what GFS run is being compared to. The GFS run from 4.5 days ago (Sat at 0Z) hit S FL on 10/13 vs the current run hitting C FL on 10/18:


0Z 9/28 GFS run: hits S FL 10/13


12Z 10/2 GFS run: hits C FL 10/18

[Bhuggs]

I was mainly referencing the genesis of the modeled storm and how it has been progressing up in time with the model runs. I agree the end of the runs have been wildly different, as I would expect them to so far out in the future

[wxman57]

Good thing we're not planning our annual vacation at Disney World for the week of Oct. 21st. Wait, we are! However, what are the odds that the 384-hr panel of the GFS is correct?