2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[toad strangler]

Regarding % of the 21 members as a TC late in the run, the 18Z GEFS is the least active run of at least the last 4. Is GEFS backtracking yet again? The 12Z EPS like the 0Z EPS has a few active members, but it is nothing to write home about when you realize there are about 51 members.

Ensembles are an excellent go to tool for mid to shorter term analysis for things like track trends and more obviously. Not so sure about the longer term being how iffy the period is to begin with for operational with solid data. And then you change the initial parameters for Ensembles .... you would think the longer range would be really skewed. Am I wrong thinking like this?

But single runs (operationals) out much past day 10 (and arguably past day 7) are so very often way off reality. For example, even the best operational, the Euro, was way, way off with Karen when it had a strong storm hit FL and/or TX late in the run for several runs in a row.

I completely get that, but how are ensembles any better at longer range when you are changing initial sampled conditions?

[LarryWx]

Ensembles are an excellent go to tool for mid to shorter term analysis for things like track trends and more obviously. Not so sure about the longer term being how iffy the period is to begin with for operational with solid data. And then you change the initial parameters for Ensembles .... you would think the longer range would be really skewed. Am I wrong thinking like this?

But single runs (operationals) out much past day 10 (and arguably past day 7) are so very often way off reality. For example, even the best operational, the Euro, was way, way off with Karen when it had a strong storm hit FL and/or TX late in the run for several runs in a row.

I completely get that, but how are ensembles any better at longer range when you are changing initial sampled conditions?

The much greater number of runs is far more beneficial than the inaccuracies caused by slightly changing the initial conditions. The EPS has been by a good margin better than anything else, operational or other ensembles. It has been the gold standard.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has cyclogenesis at 240hrs

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS shows this over Nicaragua and that’s would spell a major flood disaster for them, thankfully this solution is beyond 10 days and will change by the run

It will depend on where in the Western Caribbean this develops on whether this is an upper end hurricane or a tropical storm that never becomes much due to land

Ps. Just because it doesn’t become a hurricane doesn’t mean it can’t be bad (2001 Allison and 2019 Imelda)

[Stormi]

Regarding % of the 21 members as a TC late in the run, the 18Z GEFS is the least active run of at least the last 4. Is GEFS backtracking yet again? The 12Z EPS like the 0Z EPS has a few active members, but it is nothing to write home about when you realize there are about 51 members.

Ensembles are an excellent go to tool for mid to shorter term analysis for things like track trends and more obviously. Not so sure about the longer term being how iffy the period is to begin with for operational with solid data. And then you change the initial parameters for Ensembles .... you would think the longer range would be really skewed. Am I wrong thinking like this?

Not at all wrong for thinking this way IMHO. This in my thinking, is why model runs start with several tightly-wrapped members in strong agreement - until past 24-48 hours or so. At that point, the hot mess that becomes spaghetti models almost always shows it's ugly face haha. The butterfly effect of our planet - each variant impacts another, etc. It's incredible to witness really...So much is constantly evolved. That's what makes it fun!

[SFLcane]

Not much on the 06z GFS this morning other then it keeps pushing back the time. Euro remains silent I would not be surprised if we are done with this season.

[Florida1118]

Not much on the 06z GFS this morning other then it keeps pushing back the time. Euro remains silent I would not be suprised if we are done with this season.

Based on what? After going through this season, are we still living and dying on what model runs explicitly show? Even the infamous 2013 had at least 2 more storms to go by this date.

[CyclonicFury]

Not much on the 06z GFS this morning other then it keeps pushing back the time. Euro remains silent I would not be suprised if we are done with this season.

Based on what? After going through this season, are we still living and dying on what model runs explicitly show? Even the infamous 2013 had at least 2 more storms to go by this date.

I think he's talking about Florida specifically. Even if Florida doesn't have any landfalls, there's still a good chance we have 2-4 more named storms, even if they may just be non-tropical origin weak storms in the central Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

Not much on the 06z GFS this morning other then it keeps pushing back the time. Euro remains silent I would not be suprised if we are done with this season.

Based on what? After going through this season, are we still living and dying on what model runs explicitly show? Even the infamous 2013 had at least 2 more storms to go by this date.

Regarding this ridiculous model bias so far it's backing up and not supported by GEFS, EPS, ECMWF, etc... sure we can always have some sub-tropical stuff but I don't think we're getting any more big ones. Could be wrong but that's the way it is looking.

[SFLcane]

The best window might be the 10th-15th when a weak Kelvin wave comes into the basin.

[blp]

Not much on the 06z GFS this morning other then it keeps pushing back the time. Euro remains silent I would not be surprised if we are done with this season.

I think the end is near for the phantom storm. If you look at the last few runs of the GEFS since the 18z yesterday it has very little activity in the region mostly staying over C. America.

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi tweeted about possible development next week off the US SE coast.

[chaser1]

The 12Z Euro model shows nothing in the SW Caribbean at all through 240hrs. In fact, looking at the MSLP anomalies map it shows slightly higher than normal sea level pressures. The 12Z Canadian also does not show development in the SW Caribbean. So once again the GFS stands alone.

Even the GFS Legacy shows "nada"

The Legacy is now nada, period, as I think it stopped running.

That's hilarious?! And here, I'm checking on it to look for any additional model consistency No wonder the GFS Legacy seems suddenly so much more stable and without any phantom storms anymore. I guess they finally figured out the solution to THAT..... just stop updating it Well then, if tricorders are truly no longer detecting a pulse from the good 'ol Legacy model then I suppose we'll need Bone's to make it official.

[toad strangler]

Not much on the 06z GFS this morning other then it keeps pushing back the time. Euro remains silent I would not be suprised if we are done with this season.

Based on what? After going through this season, are we still living and dying on what model runs explicitly show? Even the infamous 2013 had at least 2 more storms to go by this date.

Regarding this ridiculous model bias so far it's backing up and not supported by GEFS, EPS, ECMWF, etc... sure we can always have some sub-tropical stuff but I don't think we're getting any more big ones. Could be wrong but that's the way it is looking.

Don't underestimate the 2nd peak in mid October given parameters are generally favorable and don't forget that models didn't see squat in mid August.

[gatorcane]

I would be shocked if we get out of October without something forming and likely something significant in the Caribbean. We have not had one storm down there this year. We also have no El Niño and SSTs are above normal especially in the Western Caribbean. Also let’s not forget model lead time for the most part this year has been less than 5 days save Lorenzo.

[Kazmit]

Joe Bastardi tweeted about possible development next week off the US SE coast.

The 6z GFS hinted at something around there early next week. It doesn't quite manage to develop though.

[SFLcane]

I would be shocked if we get out of October without something forming and likely something significant in the Caribbean. We have not had one storm down there this year. We also have no El Niño and SSTs are above normal especially in the Western Caribbean. Also let’s not forget model lead time for the most part this year has been less than 5 days save Lorenzo.

SSTs don't really mean a whole lot until something forms. I think the problem is dynamics favor the East Pacific for now.

[Bhuggs]

So if the gfs forms something it’s a phantom, if it doesn’t then season over? Euro has a history of delayed genesis and doesn’t go out past 10 days. I feel like we are in a lull like after Dorian, and things might pick up shortly.

[ronjon]

I would be shocked if we get out of October without something forming and likely something significant in the Caribbean. We have not had one storm down there this year. We also have no El Niño and SSTs are above normal especially in the Western Caribbean. Also let’s not forget model lead time for the most part this year has been less than 5 days save Lorenzo.

Yes I agree. Long range models are showing a gyre forming in the SW caribbean/central america area in about 7 days. This monsoonal gyre will likely spawn some sort of tropical system but it'll likely take time to do so. The death ridge over the SE US that will break down later this weekend will be replaced by another ridge after a brief cool down. South of these large ridges you get CC turning aided by them. We'll know in about a week if this occurs.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1179797705784221696