Texas Fall 2019

[Haris]

I hope so yall. Extreme drought continues to expand. I am happy this historic heat is ending now for a few months but rain is actually more important to me (and fun!)

[South Texas Storms]

I hope so yall. Extreme drought continues to expand. I am happy this historic heat is ending now for a few months but rain is actually more important to me (and fun!)

Oh I agree. We desperately need some rain in central TX. San Antonio is running a rainfall deficit of over 8 inches for the year now. Been a very dry year across the Hill Country unfortunately. Hopefully a wetter pattern returns soon.

[weatherdude1108]

I hope so yall. Extreme drought continues to expand. I am happy this historic heat is ending now for a few months but rain is actually more important to me (and fun!)

Oh I agree. We desperately need some rain in central TX. San Antonio is running a rainfall deficit of over 8 inches for the year now. Been a very dry year across the Hill Country unfortunately. Hopefully a wetter pattern returns soon.

It does feel like it has been a dry year in central Texas, but really the extreme heat and dryness has mostly been since July. Spring through June was relatively cool and wet, which feels like an ETERNITY ago, but only four months ago!

Crazy flash drought can leave now!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down into the upper 50s this morning. I’ve missed this.

[dhweather]

I hope so yall. Extreme drought continues to expand. I am happy this historic heat is ending now for a few months but rain is actually more important to me (and fun!)

Oh I agree. We desperately need some rain in central TX. San Antonio is running a rainfall deficit of over 8 inches for the year now. Been a very dry year across the Hill Country unfortunately. Hopefully a wetter pattern returns soon.

The only plus for drought down there is that it should help reduce the pollen from the evil mountain cedar, so there's that.

[CaptinCrunch]

IF you think we have it bad.....

https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2019-10-03-october-record-heat-south-east-midwest

Over the past week, extreme heat has visited more than 130 million Americans, shattering temperature records for this time of year with readings that would be impressive even by July standards. Although temperatures have dropped on Thursday across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, the atmospheric blowtorch remains lit for folks in the Southeast and the Deep South.

The records



Wednesday’s high of 98 degrees in Wilmington, Del., didn’t just set an October record — it was their warmest reading of any month since 2012.
Atlantic City hit 96 degrees on Wednesday, clinching its new October record by an impressive margin of six degrees. Newark also set a new monthly record at 96 degrees. John F. Kennedy International and LaGuardia airports and Central Park in New York all smashed October records, as well.

In the Washington region, Reagan National Airport soared to 98 degrees, its warmest October reading on record, beating a record that had stood since 1941. Highs ran more than 25 degrees above normal.
Tallahassee set its October record, as did Atlanta. Atlanta wrapped up September almost nine degrees above average. Chattanooga, Tenn., hit 100 degrees on Wednesday, breaking the October record it had set just one day prior, at 97 degrees. Before this year, it had never hit 95 degrees or above this late in the year. Nashville, Memphis, and Knoxville also set record highs for the month of October.

Averaged over the past week, Huntsville, Ala.; Birmingham, Ala.; Tallahassee; New Orleans; and Atlanta have all been hotter than Death Valley, Calif., which holds the all-time heat record for the United States.
For many, this heat is nothing new. Nashville was above average every day in September. Like Atlanta, it hasn’t had a single below-average day since the end of August. That means that every day in meteorological fall (the months of September, October and November) has featured anomalously hot weather.

In Alabama, Jasper recorded a high of 104, while Birmingham hit 103 degrees. The former could mark the warmest October temperature recorded in any state east of the Mississippi, according to Bill Karins, an NBC News meteorologist. But the National Weather Service in Birmingham warned that both records appeared suspect. Elsewhere in Alabama, Tuscaloosa and Huntsville did set records that meteorologists are more confident about — reaching 101 and 100 degrees, respectively.

In all, about 209 million people, or about 71 percent of the population of the Lower 48, were forecast to see high temperatures of at least 80 degrees on Wednesday, with 131 million seeing temperatures at or above 90. These are remarkably high numbers for Oct. 2. The heat on Wednesday follows a historically steamy Tuesday, when more than two-dozen high temperature records were broken for the date in the eastern United States, along with 16 locations that set their highest temperature for any October day, according to the National Weather Service.

[Ntxw]

Starting to see the good signs of reversal in the hemispheric 500mb pattern shift from the ensembles. The IO trade burst is forcing more of a "Nino like" transition despite the tropical Pacific being in neutral. Remember, the Indian Ocean is one of the 3 major tropical bodies of water. The front coming in a few days will be the first big one in a series, a storm will accompany the next one. Large, powerful Pacific typhoon will form and make way into the high latitude pattern. SOI, again despite the Pacific saying neutral, has been and will be fully engaged in the "atmospheric" nino response from the IO. The flash drought created a warm anomaly but the change is on the horizon.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Starting to see the good signs of reversal in the hemispheric 500mb pattern shift from the ensembles. The IO trade burst is forcing more of a "Nino like" transition despite the tropical Pacific being in neutral. Remember, the Indian Ocean is one of the 3 major tropical bodies of water. The front coming in a few days will be the first big one in a series, a storm will accompany the next one. Large, powerful Pacific typhoon will form and make way into the high latitude pattern. SOI, again despite the Pacific saying neutral, has been and will be fully engaged in the "atmospheric" nino response from the IO. The flash drought created a warm anomaly but the change is on the horizon.

Winter coming... heyoooooo

[Brent]

Feels pretty good outside right now

Cant wait for the real front Sunday Night

[weatherdude1108]

I hope so yall. Extreme drought continues to expand. I am happy this historic heat is ending now for a few months but rain is actually more important to me (and fun!)

Oh I agree. We desperately need some rain in central TX. San Antonio is running a rainfall deficit of over 8 inches for the year now. Been a very dry year across the Hill Country unfortunately. Hopefully a wetter pattern returns soon.

The only plus for drought down there is that it should help reduce the pollen from the evil mountain cedar, so there's that.

Well, may be wishful thinking.lol

It was a wet Spring and early Summer, and that may have set the biological processes in motion, despite subsequent record heat and dryness.

Ragweed has been high here recently, and it's been bone dry.

I've also seen flowers and new grasses blooming in a vacant piece of land near work that's tinder dry.

So I guess the plants and trees sense a change in sunlight angle and respond accordingly, but not as pronounced as if rains were normal.

I need to lookup how the Cedar count was back in December 2011(?). A lot of hearty cedars were lost during that drought and heat of 2011. Anyway. Tangent.

[gpsnowman]

Feels pretty good outside right now

Cant wait for the real front Sunday Night

Me also. It can't get here soon enough. I am also intrigued by the front later next week. It's not showing much on the local forecasts yet but it could get chilly around here according to some twitter posts I have seen.

[CaptinCrunch]

My GF sister went back home to Binghamton, NY to visit family, said it was a record 82 Oct 1st, today it's forecast to be 53 and 32 tonight . She didn't take any warm clothes since it has been so warm up there and is looking forward to coming back tomorrow (H57)

[Ntxw]

Feels pretty good outside right now

Cant wait for the real front Sunday Night

Me also. It can't get here soon enough. I am also intrigued by the front later next week. It's not showing much on the local forecasts yet but it could get chilly around here according to some twitter posts I have seen.

The front a week from now-ish will be involved with a deeper continental trough. Highs will flirt in the 60s and lows well into the 40s and 30s for the far NW zones if it verifies. The first front gets us down to about normal, the later front below normal. Euro takes the 850mb 0C down to the panhandle.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Feels pretty good outside right now

Cant wait for the real front Sunday Night

Me also. It can't get here soon enough. I am also intrigued by the front later next week. It's not showing much on the local forecasts yet but it could get chilly around here according to some twitter posts I have seen.

The front a week from now-ish will be involved with a deeper continental trough. Highs will flirt in the 60s and lows well into the 40s and 30s for the far NW zones if it verifies. The first front gets us down to about normal, the later front below normal. Euro takes the 850mb 0C down to the panhandle.

My pants are a little tight right now.

[dhweather]

It's 354 hours out, so fortunately, it's very likely wrong. This would be terrible for Abacos/Grand Bahama.

[weatherdude1108]

NICE.

I'll ignore weeks 3 to 4. I didn't post weeks 3 to 4, but it shows above normal temps for most of texas, but equal to above normal chances for precipitation.

[Haris]

wut

[Brent]

Feels pretty good outside right now

Cant wait for the real front Sunday Night

Me also. It can't get here soon enough. I am also intrigued by the front later next week. It's not showing much on the local forecasts yet but it could get chilly around here according to some twitter posts I have seen.

The front a week from now-ish will be involved with a deeper continental trough. Highs will flirt in the 60s and lows well into the 40s and 30s for the far NW zones if it verifies. The first front gets us down to about normal, the later front below normal. Euro takes the 850mb 0C down to the panhandle.

I just pulled up the Euro meteogram and wow

For DFW 90 on Thursday 57 Friday for the high(that would be a record low max if it verified and the current record is 59 in 2009 interestingly) even the GFS is barely above 60

Either way it seems the Monday front is just a preview with a quick warmup before the bottom possibly drops

[bubba hotep]

This would deliver early season record cold, silly GFS

[Brent]

This would deliver early season record cold, silly GFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019100418/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_65.png

Maybe were skipping fall

0z Euro low 40s for DFW next Saturday!