2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

Euro has nothing in the carib stronger system as expected in the e-pac.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro looks like it has a vortex spin up down in the suspect area at 216 hours.

[SFLcane]

In terms of any vorticity shown by the euro near panama this is not a tc. Higher than normal pressure. Euro can be biased to though

[toad strangler]

12z GFS and 12z Euro vort maps look very similar at 240 hours

[Bhuggs]

Definitely reinforcing the idea that this is the area needs to be watched with the 12z runs.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is again very quiet with a mere 3 sub 999 TCs in/near the W Caribbean out of 51 members as of 0Z on 10/18...so only 6%.
So, the 12Z versions of the EPS and the often overly aggressive GEPS are quiet for 10/18 vs the very active GEFS. Who do you believe? I'm certainly not overly concerned at this time.

[boca]

When is the next kelvin wave due?

[SFLcane]

The 12Z EPS is again very quiet with a mere 3 sub 999 TCs in/near the W Caribbean out of 51 members as of 0Z on 10/18...so only 6%.
So, the 12Z versions of the EPS and the often overly aggressive GEPS are quiet for 10/18 vs the very active GEFS. Who do you believe? I'm certainly not overly concerned at this time.

My takeaway is don't get worked up about Day 10+ forecasts.

[blp]

12z GFS and 12z Euro vort maps look very similar at 240 hours

Agreed, very similar. The GFS ensemble and the Euro Operational. This area needs to be watched closely now.

GEFS 240hr


Euro Operational 240hr

[Bhuggs]

One of the earliest genesis so far in gfs. Around hour 204. Also coming up on a week straight of runs showing a system in this area.

[gatorcane]

Indeed GFS shows genesis at 198 hours. So like I have been saying, likely not a phantom as clearly the timeframe is coming in. Note sure about that track into Central America, too far out to know if that is the outcome. Chances are it tracks NW into the NW Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

So for the first time the gfs is now showing development near 170-180hrs. It brought in the time let’s see if it sticks

[gatorcane]

Very active GEFS again 18z below. Most head NW into the NW Carib:

[SFLcane]

Very active GEFS again 18z below. Most head NW into the NW Carib:

https://i.postimg.cc/QMZnxs3b/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-52.png

They do form earlier now let’s see if we get some consistency.

[blp]

The Ukmet is starting to hunt at vorticity in the area.

[blp]

So CMC, GFS, Euro, Ukmet are showing something.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the experimental 30KM FIM (Finite Volume Icosahedral) model runs at 00Z and 12Z daily out to 336 hours. It also shows SW Caribbean development and take it WNW towards the Yucatán/Belize area. I believe the model is based on the GFS model fields. Wonder if it is using the new FV3 core?

From the FAQ though it has not been updated since 2016:
“Q: What global data is used to initialize the real-time FIM model forecasts?
A: GFS spectral grids interpolated to FIM icosahedral/isentropic-hybrid coordinates up to this point (11/2008)”

By the way looks like they are also testing an experimental 13KM FV3 (higher resolution) albeit only out through 120 hours and only runs at 00Z.

Link to bookmark:

https://fim.noaa.gov/

[USTropics]

Indeed GFS shows genesis at 198 hours. So like I have been saying, likely not a phantom as clearly the timeframe is coming in. Note sure about that track into Central America, too far out to know if that is the outcome. Chances are it tracks NW into the NW Caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/rwpTJV4p/gfs-z850-vort-watl-34.png

If genesis were to occur in this area, climatology would suggest this as well. Below are the tracks of systems that have formed in the deep SE Caribbean in the month of October (1842-2018):



Full list:

Code: Select all

Beta, 2005
Floyd, 1987
Fox, 1952
Gladys, 1968
Hattie,   1961
Isbell,   1964
Judith,   1959
Katie, 1955
Katrina, 1999
Lili, 1996
Michelle, 2001
Mitch, 1998
Nate, 2017
Paula, 2010
Rina, 2011
Roxanne, 1995
Sandy, 2012
Unnamed, 1865
Unnamed, 1874
Unnamed, 1876
Unnamed, 1879
Unnamed, 1882
Unnamed, 1890
Unnamed, 1891
Unnamed, 1894
Unnamed, 1905
Unnamed, 1906
Unnamed, 1908
Unnamed, 1909
Unnamed, 1910
Unnamed, 1921
Unnamed, 1922
Unnamed   #1, 1926
Unnamed   #2, 1926
Unnamed, 1933
Unnamed, 1935
Unnamed, 1940
Unnamed, 1945
Unnamed, 1947
Unnamed, 1975
Unnamed, 1979


[boca]

In later frames the GFS has the storm crossing Eastern Cuba than thru the Bahamas well east of Florida but the time frame is just about in medium range.

[chaser1]

Quick note, add the ICON at 180 hr's beginning to focus on SW Caribbean development as well. Also, the 0Z GFS seems to clearly indicate distinctly lower pressures as compared to recent runs as early now as 132 hr's. At 190 hr's there's a large closed 1004 low depicted in the SW Carib. Realizing that the time frame is far too distant to focus on details at this time, there does appear to be a suggestion of development beginning to occur at the 10/13 - 10/14 time frame.