WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Models have been up and down this year with many of the systems underperforming recently Mitag.

Let's see what Hagibis does. It has everything going for it.

[Nancy Smar]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 16N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Highteeld]

12z Euro is showing a rapid consolidation of 850 vorticity/mslp by hour 48. Much more aggressive than yesterday's 12z run.
Old.

New.

[Highteeld]

This typhoon looks to be violent. Down to 947 mb @ hour 102 on the latest 12z Euro.

[mrbagyo]

[Highteeld]

TD classification doesn't look too far off the beating path just eyeballing IR imagery.

[Highteeld]

Still an invest for now though, albeit slightly stronger than before.
93W INVEST 191004 1800 15.5N 164.7E WPAC 20 1005

[Highteeld]

Last post for now, and hot off the press:

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 042126
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 04/2030Z

C. 15.8N

D. 163.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/1808Z 15.1N 165.0E AMSU


...KIBLER

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 041800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 15N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Highteeld]

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/iFhDsCp


https://imgur.com/qqI7XjO

GFS/UKMET on the same page with the EC 12z run with a soild major.

[Highteeld]

Latest NAVGEM is showing it down to a Cat 5. Min pressure ~ 920 mb

[Highteeld]

Latest NAVGEM is showing it down to a Cat 5. Min pressure ~ 920 mb

https://i.imgur.com/Ga87fMB.png

18z Euro down to 941 mb in 90 hours!

[Highteeld]

Latest NAVGEM is showing it down to a Cat 5. Min pressure ~ 920 mb

https://i.imgur.com/Ga87fMB.png

18z Euro down to 941 mb in 90 hours!

[euro6208]

First HWRF run seems to be having some malfunctions with this. In just 3 hours!?

[euro6208]

Peak...

[Highteeld]

Peak...

https://i.imgur.com/XLbEbNH.png

Strangely, the HWRF-P takes it down to 908 mb at hour 96. Clearly a really screwed up run

[Hayabusa]

Here it is, pre-Hagibis

TD
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 5 October 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 5 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N15°00' (15.0°)
E162°40' (162.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[euro6208]

TCFA issued from LOW



WTPN21 PGTW 050230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3N 163.6E TO 17.0N 155.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4N 163.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 163.1E, APPROXIMATELY
1080 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF A DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 041841Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W
WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. THERE IS HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060230Z.//
NNNN