2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Bhuggs]

A ridge draped across the gulf protecting the US from impacts would be very “2019”

[GeneratorPower]

12Z GEM joining the GFS with development but sends it NW into the NW Carib:

https://i.postimg.cc/QdrvtBwB/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-36.png

Trough-ridge setup at 234 hours:

CMC is showing a similar ridge to the GFS and Euro. I don't buy 500mb setups this far out. The story is that a storm in the SW Caribbean seems more and more likely. The Euro being left in the dust.

Speaking of dust, we’ve got a ton of it in the southeast US. Drought. Why? This stupid high pressure stuck over the southeast US. It cut short the FL rainy season and just like a GFS forecast, the action is always pushed out in time when looking at NWS daily forecasts. My bet is that this death ridge refuses to move until winter arrives.

[chaser1]

12Z GEM joining the GFS with development but sends it NW into the NW Carib:

https://i.postimg.cc/QdrvtBwB/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-36.png

Trough-ridge setup at 234 hours:

CMC is showing a similar ridge to the GFS and Euro. I don't buy 500mb setups this far out. The story is that a storm in the SW Caribbean seems more and more likely. The Euro being left in the dust.

Speaking of dust, we’ve got a ton of it in the southeast US. Drought. Why? This stupid high pressure stuck over the southeast US. It cut short the FL rainy season and just like a GFS forecast, the action is always pushed out in time when looking at NWS daily forecasts. My bet is that this death ridge refuses to move until winter arrives.

I have a hard time buying forecast storm development beyond a week; i'm certainly not betting the farm on the projected 7 + day 500mb flow. Still need at least a couple days to see how CONUS steering flow may set up

[floridasun78]

CMC is showing a similar ridge to the GFS and Euro. I don't buy 500mb setups this far out. The story is that a storm in the SW Caribbean seems more and more likely. The Euro being left in the dust.

Speaking of dust, we’ve got a ton of it in the southeast US. Drought. Why? This stupid high pressure stuck over the southeast US. It cut short the FL rainy season and just like a GFS forecast, the action is always pushed out in time when looking at NWS daily forecasts. My bet is that this death ridge refuses to move until winter arrives.

I have a hard time buying forecast storm development beyond a week; i'm certainly not betting the farm on the projected 7 + day 500mb flow. Still need at least a couple days to see how CONUS steering flow may set up

you right 200 hour models cannot be trust i look at 120 hour ranger or so

[sma10]

Not sure how the run will end, but 12z euro seems to be hinting at developing a low in the SW caribbean in about 7-8 days time. First time I've seen the Ops Euro do this, i think.

[gatorcane]

The Euro looks to drive a weak broad low into Nicaragua. 12Z GEFS OTOH has a cluster off of Belize in the super-long range:

[WxEp]

Through 264 hours, it looks like around 10-11 of the 51 EPS members develop a TC in the Western Caribbean. I believe this is the biggest signal for potential development that the EPS has shown so far.

Edit: Some move west into Central America, but the majority move north west and end up moving into the GOM or over Cuba. Obviously this far out any tracks are still highly suspect.

[gatorcane]

Through 264 hours, it looks like around 10-11 of the 51 EPS members develop a TC in the Western Caribbean. I believe this is the biggest signal for potential development that the EPS has shown so far.

Indeed and most of the ensembles lift this north or NW towards the NW Caribbean not into Nicaragua.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1180571792508936192

[SFLcane]

The Euro looks to drive a weak broad low into Nicaragua. 12Z GEFS OTOH has a cluster off of Belize in the super-long range:

https://i.postimg.cc/m24Hs59W/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-53.png

EPS has picked up a bit today heading NE towards FL.

[Aric Dunn]

I think our best bet in the short term will be that mid to upper low east of the Bahamas. Models are very likely under doing and going to under do the amount of surface reflection that will develop,. it will likely be Sub tropical at first.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS again buries this into CA.

[SFLcane]

18z GEFS most if not all avoid Central America.

[Astromanía]

Models are more consistent with the system in the EPAC, weaker than past runs tho

[gatorcane]

18z GEFS most if not all avoid Central America.

I think they do this because they generally delay development allowing for the ridge over the Gulf and Florida to weaken. The GFS op is faster with development from the CAG. Would not surprise me if we see slower and more gradual development as the models can try to spin up lows from gyres too quickly. The EPS and GEFS are slower and more gradual for the most part:

18Z GEFS below:

[Bhuggs]

Ridge setting up further east this run. Might get interesting

[Hurricaneman]

Ridge setting up further east this run. Might get interesting

Yep, this run of the GFS is 20 to 30mi from being a major problem for somebody, trending towards the ensembles

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS, Canadian and ICON on board








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[chaser1]

GFS, Canadian and ICON on board

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191006/d301c0e49cca5a082d397b3385e4e217.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191006/a70580369ddf0d4507529ef3acadce8d.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191006/1925c0d2876226494c18a7107e2badfb.png


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And THIS, right now is one of the only two things that really matter right now. Not whether it will or wont be "a major". Not whether it looks right now like it'll track north, east, south, or west. What else is significant right now? 168 hours

[LarryWx]

Through 264 hours, it looks like around 10-11 of the 51 EPS members develop a TC in the Western Caribbean. I believe this is the biggest signal for potential development that the EPS has shown so far.

Edit: Some move west into Central America, but the majority move north west and end up moving into the GOM or over Cuba. Obviously this far out any tracks are still highly suspect.

This fairly sharp increase in EPS activity to ~20% of members along with the GEFS finally showing signs of progressing/sticking with a busy 0Z on 10/18 is now starting to get me a bit concerned. That doesn't mean I think we should panic though. It just bares watching a bit more than it did earlier imo.

For example, here is the 0Z GEFS for 0Z on 10/18, my benchmark timeframe: